Racing are unbeaten at El Sardinero and score in every home game – Mourinho’s Madrid arrive without Vinícius
Pre-match update (15:20 CET): The line-ups are in. Federico Valverde misses out as expected, and Racing are without Andrés Martín, whose muscle problem has not cleared up, so Iker Luque comes into the attacking line. Courtois is back in goal for Madrid and Trent Alexander-Arnold starts at right-back. None of that changes my reading of the game: Zabiri, Íñigo Vicente and Canales all start for Racing, and Madrid are fielding the kind of back line that has conceded in every away league game. Both Teams to Score – Yes stays my main bet at 4/10. I could not recheck the Winz price before kick-off, so the odds quoted are from 31 October and may have moved since.
The newly promoted side have turned El Sardinero into the most entertaining ground in LaLiga. Racing are unbeaten at home, with three wins and two draws, and every one of those five games has ended with both teams scoring: 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 2-2 and 2-1. Real Madrid arrive third, six days after winning the Clásico 2-1 in Barcelona with two goals from Kylian Mbappé, but Vinícius Júnior serves the third game of his four-match ban and a Champions League trip to AEK Athens follows on Wednesday. It is the first league meeting in Santander since a 0-0 in September 2011.
“No tenemos nada que perder y eso tenemos que demostrarlo desde el minuto uno.” (“We have nothing to lose, and we have to show that from the first minute.”) – Racing coach José Alberto López
Predicted lineups: Racing vs Real Madrid
The starting XIs are now confirmed. Racing are without left-back Jorge Salinas, suspended after a fifth booking, so Aarón Martín starts in his place. Andrés Martín did not recover from his slight muscle problem and Iker Luque replaces him in the attacking midfield line. Real Madrid are without Vinícius, Rodrygo, Raúl Asencio, Ferland Mendy and Federico Valverde. Thibaut Courtois returns in goal after the fever that kept him out of the Clásico, Trent Alexander-Arnold gets the nod at right-back ahead of Denzel Dumfries, and Arda Güler starts.
Racing Santander Team News & Preview
Racing’s home and away records could hardly be more different. At El Sardinero they have taken 11 points from five games and scored 11 goals; away from home they have lost all five, including 7-2 at Barcelona and 5-0 at Celta. Yassir Zabiri leads the line with eight league goals, and Íñigo Vicente is their highest-rated player this season. The defence is the weak point. Racing have conceded 26 league goals, more than anyone else in LaLiga, and their expected goals against of 2.14 per game is also the worst in the division. José Alberto knows what is coming: he described Madrid as a side that „destroys you in transition“ but insisted that being brave does not mean being reckless.
What works for or against Racing
- Scored at least twice in all five home league games.
- Zabiri has eight league goals.
- 26 goals conceded, the most in LaLiga.
- Left-back Salinas is suspended and Andrés Martín misses out injured.
Real Madrid Team News & Preview
José Mourinho’s side have won all five home league games and lead the league for expected goals against, but they have been far less secure on the road. Their five away league games ended 2-1, 0-1, 3-2, 1-2 and 2-1, so they have conceded in every one of them. Mbappé has 11 league goals, including two in the Clásico, and a FotMob rating of 8.27, the best in the squad. Without Vinícius, Mourinho loses his main threat from the left, and the Champions League game in Athens on Wednesday adds another reason for Mourinho to manage minutes. According to El Debate, his message to the squad was simply that they must go out to win and give everything.
What works for or against Real Madrid
- Conceded in all five away league games.
- Mbappé has 11 league goals.
- Vinícius is suspended, Rodrygo and Valverde are out.
- AEK Athens away in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid Odds
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Racing Form, Stats & Data
Racing’s 1.40 expected goals per game is a respectable figure for a promoted side and matches what they actually score. Nearly all of that comes at home, where they have been willing to keep the ball and attack, and that approach is exactly why their games at El Sardinero have been so open.
Real Madrid Form, Stats & Data
The season-long numbers say Madrid defend well, but seven of their ten goals conceded have come in five away games. Their 2.42 expected goals per game is the second-highest figure in LaLiga, so I expect them to score; the question for this bet is whether Racing can find one at the other end.
Racing vs Real Madrid: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is not a bet against Real Madrid. They should win, and Mbappé has scored 11 times in ten league games. But Racing have scored at least twice in every home game, Madrid have not kept an away clean sheet all season, and Mourinho is without Vinícius and Valverde with a Champions League trip three days later. Racing have nothing to lose, a coach who has promised to be brave, and Zabiri, Vicente and Canales all in the starting XI. The strongest argument against the bet is the gap in quality. If Madrid score early and control the ball, Racing may spend long spells without it, and Courtois back in goal makes them harder to beat. Losing Andrés Martín also takes some pace out of Racing’s attack. A 0-3 is entirely possible. I still back Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.52 with Winz with a 4/10 stake, and my prediction is a 1-3 away win.