Leeuwarden’s goal factory meets a Go Ahead side that cannot keep a clean sheet
Pre-match update (20:05 CET): The goalkeeper question has been answered. Joseph Oosting told De Stentor that Jasper Cillessen starts in Leeuwarden ahead of Kjetil Haug, who has conceded 23 goals in ten league games. Cillessen had four months without a club and has one cup game behind him, so I do not expect him to change Go Ahead’s defending overnight, but an experienced keeper does take away part of my case. I am keeping Over 3.5 Goals and cutting the stake from 3/10 to 2/10. Official team sheets were not out at the time of writing. The odds quoted are from 30 October; prices may have moved since.
Cambuur have turned their season around. After four straight defeats to start the campaign, they are unbeaten in six, and last weekend they matched their record Eredivisie win by thrashing Willem II 6-1. Their home games have been wild: 0-4, 2-5, 1-4, 3-0 and 2-2. Go Ahead Eagles bring the league’s joint top scorer and a defence that has conceded in every league game, while their goalkeeping situation is still unsettled.
„Ik denk het team op dit moment behoefte heeft aan de ervaring van Jasper.“ („I think the team needs Jasper’s experience at the moment.“) – Go Ahead Eagles coach Joseph Oosting to De Stentor
Predicted lineups: Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles
Cambuur are without Jamal Amofa, Wout Asselman, Daan Visser and Jasper Meijster, while Rafik El Arguioui is a doubt after playing on with a broken nose. Devid Bouah returns from suspension. Go Ahead have changed goalkeeper: Oosting has confirmed that Jasper Cillessen, signed after Nick Marsman’s knee injury and on debut in the cup on Tuesday, starts ahead of Kjetil Haug, who was criticised after the Telstar game. Gerrit Nauber is back after 369 days out.
Cambuur Team News & Preview
Johan Plat’s side average 1.9 goals per game and have three players on five league goals each: Nicolas Binder, Ilyès Hamache and Rafik El Arguioui. Hamache is also their best-rated player. The improvement has come mostly in attack; they still concede 2.2 goals per game and allow 1.79 expected goals per match.
At home that has made for open games. Only the 3-0 win was below four goals, and even the 2-2 against AZ had four. Cambuur also won 2-0 in the cup at Kloetinge on Tuesday with a heavily changed side, so the regulars are fresh.
What works for or against Cambuur
- Four of five home games had four or more goals.
- Unbeaten in six league games, 6-1 at Willem II last time out.
- Concede 2.2 goals per game.
- El Arguioui is a doubt with a broken nose.
Go Ahead Eagles Team News & Preview
Go Ahead are ninth with a goal difference of exactly zero: 23 scored, 23 conceded. Søren Tengstedt has eight league goals, joint top in the Eredivisie, and the team creates 2.01 expected goals per game. Their away games have finished 2-2, 5-2, 3-3, 1-1 and 4-1, and they are still waiting for a first away league win.
The defence is the weak spot. No clean sheet in ten league games, a 4-1 defeat at PEC Zwolle two weeks ago, and now a change in goal, with Cillessen replacing Haug after 23 goals conceded.
What works for or against Go Ahead Eagles
- Four of five away games went over 3.5 goals.
- Tengstedt has eight league goals.
- No clean sheet in ten league games.
- The 1-1 draw away from home shows not every game opens up.
Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles Odds
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Cambuur vs. GA Eagles Form Guide
Cambuur Form, Stats & Data
Cambuur score above their chances and concede above them too. That makes them unpredictable for a result, but very predictable for goals: their matches average more than four.
GA Eagles Form, Stats & Data
Go Ahead create plenty, 6.3 shots on target per game, and give plenty away. With 2.3 goals scored and conceded per match, their games average 4.6 goals.
Cambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles: Prediction & Betting Tip
Four goals is a high line, and it only takes one tight, nervy game to miss it. Go Ahead drew 1-1 at NEC, and if Cillessen, now confirmed in goal, steadies their defence, or if Cambuur sit deeper against a better-rated opponent, a 2-1 would leave this bet short.
The evidence points the other way. Eight of the ten relevant games, Cambuur at home and Go Ahead away, have produced four or more goals. Both sides concede heavily, both have in-form forwards, and Go Ahead have not kept a clean sheet all season. Over 3.5 Goals at 2.05 with Winz is still my bet, but at 2/10 rather than 3/10 now that Go Ahead have an experienced keeper back between the posts. I expect a 3-2.