Switzerland can seal promotion against a North Macedonia side that has forgotten how to score
Switzerland host North Macedonia at the Thermoplan Arena in Lucerne on Tuesday, 6 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League B, Group 1, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Edgars Maļcevs of Latvia as referee. The Swiss have won all three games – 3-0 in Skopje, 3-0 at Hampden, 2-1 against Slovenia here on Saturday – and lead the group by five points; a win on Tuesday puts promotion back to League A beyond reach of the chasing pair if Scotland and Slovenia draw the same evening. North Macedonia are bottom with nothing: three defeats, no goals, seven conceded, and a seventh consecutive match without scoring on Saturday against Scotland. Goce Sedloski, in charge since December and now in roughly his tenth match, has heard a former international demand his resignation and has answered that the criticism should come to him and not to the players. Murat Yakin’s only concern is a fourth game in eleven days and a Lucerne pitch his federation has admitted is not up to standard.
„Единствено со Словенија можеме да се носиме во оваа група“ – Goce Sedloski after the 0-2 against Scotland: only against Slovenia can we compete in this group.
Predicted lineups: Switzerland vs North Macedonia
Yakin told the Swiss press after Saturday’s game that there would be „zwei, drei Wechsel“, and at Monday’s press conference in Lucerne he spoke about players who „noch nicht den Rhythmus von vier Spielen in zehn Tagen in den Beinen haben“. Watson’s reading of the briefing is the eleven below: Boteli, 20, for a first start up front with Amdouni dropping into the number ten role to rest Manzambi, Rieder for Aebischer on the right, and Britschgi for the 34-year-old Rodriguez at left-back. Blick also floats Mvogo for Kobel. Xhaka and Embolo remain out after the Covid-certificate affair, Vargas and Zakaria are injured, and nobody is suspended. North Macedonia’s side is harder to call: Sedloski made eight changes between the first two games and more for the third, Atanasov is suspended, and the Macedonian press expects Shishkovski to be considered in goal after Dimitrievski played all 270 minutes. The eleven below is the one that started against Scotland, with Alioski’s return the obvious alternative on the left.
Switzerland Team News & Preview
Saturday’s 2-1 over Slovenia was the first game this window in which Switzerland had to come from behind, and it took them eight minutes. Vipotnik scored after 88 seconds, Oblak misjudged a corner on ten minutes and the ball went in off Janža, and Ndoye finished a quick counter on 38. The second half was Swiss dominance without a third goal – 66 per cent of the ball, 13 shots to 10, an xG of 1.05 to 0.42 – and Kobel had to make a late save from Celar. Freuler’s verdict was that the reaction was good „but we must remain humble, this wasn’t our best performance“, and Yakin complained at Monday’s press conference that his side had scored too few from „sechzehn Chancen“ in Skopje as well. The point stands: Switzerland have created heavily in every game and converted eight times in three.
The squad is the story behind the results. Xhaka and Embolo are both absent after the forged Covid-certificate case – Embolo accepted a penal order and will not rejoin until his ban is served, Xhaka’s case is ongoing – and Vargas, Zakaria and Okafor are also missing. In their place Jashari and Freuler have run the midfield, the debutant Athekame has two assists from right-back, Ndoye won the free-kick for the opener and set up the next two goals at Hampden before scoring against Slovenia, and Amdouni has three goals and an assist as the number nine, a role he says he enjoys: „je näher man am Tor ist, desto besser“. The changes Yakin has promised – Boteli, Rieder, Britschgi – are rotations of a settled system rather than a B team, and the one weakness the window has shown, the early goal conceded to a Slovenian press, is not something a North Macedonia side with no shot on target in two games is equipped to exploit.
What works for or against Switzerland
- Three wins, 8-1 on aggregate, 3-0 in Skopje ten days ago and one goal conceded in 270 minutes.
- Amdouni has three goals and an assist, Ndoye has a goal and two assists in the last two games, and the home crowd in Lucerne is close to a sell-out.
- Two to four changes announced, a possible first start for Boteli, and a fourth game in eleven days on a pitch the federation admits is below standard.
- Conceded inside two minutes against Slovenia and missed a string of chances to kill the game – Yakin himself says the finishing has been short of the chances created.
North Macedonia Team News & Preview
The 0-2 at home to Scotland on Saturday was described by the Macedonian press as „очаен“ – dire – and the numbers agree. Bowie scored on seven minutes, McGinn added a penalty on 69 after Miovski’s handball, Scotland had 25 shots to nine and an xG of 3.45 to 0.38, and North Macedonia did not put a single attempt on target. Sedloski made two substitutions inside 35 minutes – „you saw yourselves it wasn’t working in the first half hour“ – and afterwards congratulated Scotland for being „faster, better, stronger“ before conceding that Slovenia is the only side in the group his team can compete with. Three days earlier in Ljubljana they had also failed to register a shot on target in the 0-2. The last goal North Macedonia scored was Miovski’s in the 1-7 at Wales in November; seven matches have followed without one.
For Lucerne the squad loses Atanasov, booked in consecutive games, and regains Alioski, the Lugano man who has Swiss roots and missed both the Skopje and Ljubljana games; Rastoder, another with a Swiss background, is also in the group, and Sportmanija has framed it as a special night for both. Dimitrievski has been the one consistent positive – his saves kept the Skopje game at 0-3 when Switzerland had 17 attempts in the first half – and the decision on whether to rest him is live. Sedloski’s back three has sat deep in the last two games and still conceded twice each time; against a Swiss side that beat them 3-0 with Freuler and two Amdouni goals ten days ago, the realistic ambition is a narrow defeat, and a goal would end a run that is now approaching a year.
What works for or against North Macedonia
- Seven games without a goal, no shot on target against Slovenia or Scotland, and 0-3 to this opponent in Skopje ten days ago.
- Atanasov suspended, two substitutions forced before the 35th minute on Saturday, and a former international publicly demanding the manager's resignation.
- Alioski is back in the squad after missing both games, Dimitrievski has kept every scoreline respectable, and Switzerland will rotate.
- Sedloski has changed his team heavily every game – eight changes between matchdays one and two – so the eleven is unpredictable.
Switzerland vs North Macedonia Odds
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Switzerland vs. North Macedonia Stats Comparison
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Switzerland vs. North Macedonia Form Guide
Switzerland Form, Stats & Data
Eight scored, one conceded, nine points: the window could not have gone better for a side missing its captain and its first-choice striker. What I rate most is the chance creation – 17 first-half attempts in Skopje, 13 shots and an xG above one against a deep Slovenia – and the set-piece output, with a Rodriguez free-kick, an Elvedi header and a corner-led equaliser among the goals. What I rate less is the finishing, which Yakin himself has criticised, and the early concession on Saturday. Rotation adds a little noise, but Switzerland have dominated every opponent in this group and I expect the same control at home against the weakest of them.
North Macedonia Form, Stats & Data
Three defeats, no goals, seven conceded and no shot on target in the last two games: North Macedonia are not just losing, they are not creating. Sedloski’s rotation – eight changes for Ljubljana, more for Skopje, early substitutions in two of three games – reads as a manager searching for a team rather than refining one, and his own assessment that only Slovenia are beatable tells you how he sees Lucerne. Alioski’s return is the one genuine improvement, and Dimitrievski can keep the score down. But the run is now seven matches without a goal against Denmark, Ireland, Bosnia, Türkiye, Switzerland, Slovenia and Scotland, and against the best defence in the group I expect it to reach eight.
Switzerland vs North Macedonia: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the cleanest angle here is not the Swiss margin but the Macedonian goal, or rather its absence. Seven consecutive games without scoring, no shot on target in 180 minutes against Slovenia and Scotland, a 0-3 to this opponent ten days ago in which Dimitrievski was the only reason the score stayed there, and now the suspension of Atanasov on top: this is a side whose attack has stopped functioning. Switzerland have conceded once in three games, and that goal came from Slovenia’s high press in the opening ninety seconds, which is a weapon North Macedonia have not shown. A Swiss clean sheet is the outcome I trust most, and backing the visitors to draw a blank is the direct way to express it.
The strongest argument against is that one goal is all it takes and the circumstances help it a little: Yakin is rotating, Boteli may be making a first start, Britschgi is 20, Mvogo may replace Kobel, and a Swiss side that has the ball for 70 minutes only needs one lapse at a corner or on the break to lose the bet while still winning the game comfortably. Alioski is a real upgrade on the left, and the Lucerne pitch has already been blamed for scrappy moments. Those are the reasons the stake is four and not higher. Against them stands a run that has survived friendlies against Bosnia and Ireland as well as competitive games, and a Swiss defence that has given up one goal from open play all window.
My main bet is **North Macedonia under 0.5 team goals at 1.45 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 3-0.