Schalke’s goal drought meets a Leipzig side that travels badly
Pre-match update (14:45 CET): Schalke’s injury list has got longer, not shorter. The Bundesliga’s official match centre now lists Gosens and El-Faouzi as out rather than doubtful, and the club confirmed on Friday that Luca Vozar (illness) and Janik Bachmann (hip) will also miss this one. Captain Kenan Karaman and Dejan Ljubičić are back in the squad. Losing two more midfield options only strengthens my view that Schalke will struggle to score, so I am sticking with Both Teams to Score – No at 3/10, but I am not raising the stake because I could not reconfirm the price: the 2.75 is from Friday and may have moved since. The official line-ups were not yet available when I checked; the XIs below are still predictions.
The Veltins-Arena has not seen a Schalke league goal this season. Three home games have brought two goalless draws and a 1-0 defeat to Mainz, and the cup trip to Dresden on Wednesday ended 2-0 with Sportschau calling Schalke „furchtbar harmlos“, dreadfully toothless. Leipzig are the opposite at home, where they have won all four league games 18-0, but on the road they have lost three out of three. With Manchester City coming to Leipzig on Wednesday, Martín Demichelis also has rotation to think about.
„Die nächsten Wochen werden für uns aufgrund der sehr engen Personalsituation richtig, richtig hart.“ („The next few weeks will be really, really hard for us because our squad is so stretched.“) – Schalke manager Miron Muslić
Predicted lineups: Schalke vs Leipzig
Muslić’s options are thin. Gosens and El-Faouzi clashed heads at Köln, Gosens needing treatment for two cuts and El-Faouzi suffering a broken nose, and both are now ruled out. Vozar is ill and Bachmann has a hip problem, so two more midfielders are missing, while Wöber, Gantenbein, Sylla and Schallenberg are still out. The returns of Karaman and Ljubičić, who both came off the bench at Dresden, are the only good news, and the Bundesliga’s predicted XI has both of them starting. Leipzig rotated heavily at Essen; Christopher Nkunku, their top league scorer, was not in that squad and is carrying a knock.
Schalke Team News & Preview
Schalke’s defending has kept them afloat. Loris Karius is their best-rated player and was man of the match in the 0-0 at Köln, where Schalke created 0.64 expected goals to Köln’s 1.27. Going forward there is very little: four league goals in seven games, three of them in one afternoon at Union, and only 3.1 shots on target per game. Muslić’s side have not scored in their last two league games or in the cup.
Karaman has announced talks among the senior players, and Muslić admitted his team did not reach their limit in Dresden. With Gosens and El-Faouzi now ruled out, I do not see where the goals are suddenly coming from.
What works for or against Schalke
- No home league goal all season: 0-0, 0-0 and 0-1.
- Only 3.1 shots on target per game, and Gosens, El-Faouzi and Vozar are all out.
- Scored three at Union, so they are capable of a goal against a loose defence.
Leipzig Team News & Preview
Leipzig have two faces. At home they have won all four league games without conceding, including 6-0 against Frankfurt and 4-0 against Elversberg. Away from home they have lost 3-1 at Bremen, 2-0 at Leverkusen and 6-1 at Bayern. Antonio Nusa has three goals and five assists, and Leipzig have scored seven league goals from the bench, more than any other side, which matters if Demichelis holds players back for City.
The cup tie at Essen showed both sides of them: behind from the ninth minute against a third-tier side until Christoph Baumgartner scored twice in the last 12 minutes.
What works for or against Leipzig
- 2.86 goals per game, the strongest attack in this fixture.
- Three away league defeats out of three, 2-11 on aggregate.
- Manchester City at home on Wednesday makes rotation likely.
Schalke vs Leipzig Odds
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Both Teams to Score
Schalke vs. Leipzig Stats Comparison
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Schalke vs. Leipzig Form Guide
Schalke Form, Stats & Data
Schalke create about one expected goal per game and turn barely half of that into goals. With under 40% of the ball and no single player who has scored more than once, the attack has nothing to lean on. The goals-against figure flatters them, which is why I am not confident about a clean sheet, but I am confident about a blank at their end.
Leipzig Form, Stats & Data
Leipzig’s averages are inflated by an unbeaten home run, while all eleven goals they have conceded came away from home. That is the danger in this bet. Against Schalke’s attack, though, the bigger question is how many Leipzig score, not whether Schalke can hurt them.
Schalke vs Leipzig: Prediction & Betting Tip
The strongest argument against my bet is Leipzig’s away defending. They have conceded eleven goals in three trips, and a rotated side with one eye on City could leave Schalke the chances they have struggled to make themselves. One scruffy goal from a set piece would be enough to beat this selection.
I am still siding with the numbers. Schalke have gone five of seven league games without scoring, have not managed a home league goal, and are without Gosens, El-Faouzi and Vozar. If they blank again, either a Leipzig win to nil or a goalless draw lands this bet, so Both Teams to Score – No at 2.75 with Winz is my main pick at 3/10. I expect a 0-2.