Two sides with one goal each in three games, both missing their scorers, in a game with an edge
Ukraine play Hungary at the Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava, Slovakia, on Monday, 5 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League B, Group 2, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Igor Pajač of Croatia as referee. It is Ukraine’s second home game in Trnava in four days after the 0-3 to Northern Ireland, and the return of the Budapest meeting of 25 September, which Sikan’s 42nd-minute goal settled and which ended with Szoboszlai and Tsyhankov in a confrontation at the final whistle. Northern Ireland lead the group on seven points; Ukraine and Hungary have four each, Ukraine ahead on the head-to-head, and the loser here drops into the fight with Georgia at the bottom. Andrea Maldera’s first defeat as Ukraine manager has produced a wave of criticism at home; Marco Rossi’s first home win in the competition for four years has eased some of the pressure on him.
„Ezt a négy meccset tíz nap alatt lepörgetni… kicsit sok, kicsit veszélyes a játékosokra nézve“ – Marco Rossi after the win over Georgia: four matches in ten days is a bit much, a bit dangerous for the players.
Predicted lineups: Ukraine vs Hungary
Ukraine’s matchday squad, submitted on Monday, is missing seven players: Matviienko and Sikan suspended, Mykolenko and Sudakov gone home injured – the federation confirmed on Sunday that Sudakov has returned to Benfica – and Mykhailichenko (a cold), Shaparenko (calf) and Zubkov (back) left out after Maldera flagged all three at his Sunday press conference. No Ukrainian outlet has published a projected eleven, so the side below is built from the constraints; Maldera said before the Northern Ireland game that Trubin would play against Hungary if all went well, and nothing since has contradicted that. Hungary’s eleven is the one Index and Infostart expect: Nagy Zsolt at left-back for the suspended Kerkez, who left the camp on Sunday, Csinger and Orbán in the middle, Vitális alongside Schäfer, and Tóth Milán up front; Szoboszlai sat out the public part of Sunday’s training to rest and is expected to play.
Ukraine Team News & Preview
Friday in Trnava was the kind of defeat that makes a new manager’s position uncomfortable. Ukraine had 72 per cent of the ball and eleven shots against Northern Ireland and lost 3-0: Brown scored from a corner on nine minutes, Price headed in a Morrison cross on 22, and Brown’s second on 61 went through Riznyk after the goalkeeper misjudged a tame effort. The expected goals read 0.44 to 1.40 against them, and Sofascore’s only Ukrainian starter rated above seven was Zabarnyi. Maldera called the result „harsher than we deserved“ and put it down to „individual episodes – their first two shots, two goals“, while accepting that the third was Riznyk’s mistake; Sport.rbc.ua’s headline was „Maldera’s complete failure“. It was Ukraine’s first defeat under the Italian after a win over Poland in a friendly, the 1-0 in Budapest and a 0-0 in Tbilisi.
The squad for Monday is thinner in all the wrong places. Matviienko, booked in Budapest and again on Friday, and Sikan, booked in Tbilisi and Trnava, are suspended – Sikan is the man who scored the only Ukrainian goal of the campaign. Mykolenko left the camp with a leg problem on Thursday, Sudakov went off hurt after a foul from behind and has since returned to Benfica, Dovbyk never travelled, and on Sunday Maldera added that Mykhailichenko had a cold, Shaparenko a calf problem and Zubkov a back problem; none of the three is in the matchday squad. Maldera has rotated ten players between every game, and the forward options are now Yaremchuk, Vanat, Ponomarenko and Stepanov. One goal in three games with that much possession tells the story: Ukraine keep the ball and do not turn it into chances, and the two sides that have beaten or held them did so by sitting deep and striking on the break.
What works for or against Ukraine
- One goal in three games despite 72 per cent possession on Friday, and the scorer of that goal, Sikan, is suspended along with Matviienko.
- Mykolenko, Sudakov, Mykhailichenko, Shaparenko and Zubkov all out, Riznyk at fault for the third goal – the spine of the side is weakened at both ends.
- The 1-0 in Budapest was built on a compact shape and one clinical moment, and Hungary created three or four clear chances without scoring that night.
- Second home game in Trnava in four days, so no travel, and Trubin – who kept the clean sheet in Tbilisi – is likely to return in goal.
Hungary Team News & Preview
Hungary finally scored on Friday. After a 0-1 to Ukraine in which they had 17 shots and no goal, and a 0-0 in Belfast in which they failed to manage a shot on target, Rossi’s side beat Georgia 1-0 in Budapest through a Kerkez header from a Lukács cross on 35 minutes, and the numbers behind it were overwhelming: 26 shots to eight, eight on target to three, 1.98 expected goals to 0.42, five big chances to one. Szoboszlai was rated 9.3 by Sofascore and went off on 80 with cramp after playing three different positions. Rossi called it a game his players „went to the wall“ in, said „four big chances, one goal – not enough at this level“, and thanked federation president Sándor Csányi for a visit to Telki that „confirmed him in his post“.
Kerkez’s goal cost him the next game. He was booked in the Budapest brawl and again on 74 minutes on Friday, and is suspended, which removes the one Hungarian who has scored in the window and leaves Rossi without a natural left-back: Nagy Zsolt, 33 and used as a forward against Georgia, is expected to fill in. Bolla, Redzic, Sallai and Varga were already out. What Hungary have shown in three games is a defence that has conceded once, to the one Ukrainian shot that mattered, and an attack that generates volume without converting it: one goal from 43 shots in the two Budapest games alone. Against a Ukraine side that has scored once itself, and with the Trnava pitch a two-hour drive from Hungary’s Telki base, I expect another tight, low-scoring game decided by a single moment, if at all.
What works for or against Hungary
- One goal conceded in three games, clean sheets in Belfast and against Georgia, and 26 shots with 1.98 expected goals on Friday.
- Szoboszlai in outstanding form, and an opponent missing Matviienko, Sikan, Mykolenko and Sudakov.
- One goal from 43 shots in the two Budapest games, and the scorer, Kerkez, is suspended; Bolla, Redzic, Sallai and Varga are out.
- Hungary lost the first meeting 0-1 despite 17 shots, and the brawl at the end has given this fixture an edge Rossi will not want.
Ukraine vs Hungary Odds
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Ukraine vs. Hungary Stats Comparison
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Ukraine vs. Hungary Form Guide
Ukraine Form, Stats & Data
One goal scored and three conceded in three games, all three goals against in one match. Ukraine’s games under Maldera have been possession-heavy and chance-light: ten shots and three on target in Budapest, seven shots in Tbilisi, eleven with two on target in Trnava. The defence held for two games and then fell apart against set pieces and a goalkeeping error, and now loses Matviienko and Mykolenko. What I take from the window is a side that will have the ball again on Monday and will again find it hard to score, especially without Sikan and Sudakov. I do not see where three goals come from in this fixture.
Hungary Form, Stats & Data
One goal scored and one conceded in three games, which is as low-scoring a record as League B offers, and the one goal came from a player who is now suspended. Hungary’s shot volume – 17, then none on target, then 26 – says the structure creates chances; the conversion says the finishers do not take them, and Rossi has said so himself. Defensively Orbán and Csinger have been excellent and Tóth Balázs has two clean sheets. I expect Hungary to have chances again and to need more than one of them to score, which against a Ukraine side with one goal in three games points to the under rather than to either team’s win.
Ukraine vs Hungary: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the numbers from the first three rounds all point the same way. Ukraine have scored once, Hungary have scored once, and the one meeting between them this window finished 1-0 with 27 shots and a single goal. Both sides now lose the player who scored for them – Sikan and Kerkez – to suspension, Ukraine are also without Matviienko, Mykolenko, Sudakov and three more squad players, and Hungary’s left side has to be improvised. Rossi’s team defends well and wastes chances; Maldera’s team keeps the ball and creates little. Add a needle factor from the Budapest brawl, three days‘ rest and a stadium in a third country, and a cagey game is the obvious expectation.
The strongest argument against is Friday’s two results. Ukraine conceded three to Northern Ireland from very little, and Hungary created 1.98 expected goals against Georgia; if Hungary’s chance creation meets Ukraine’s new defensive fragility, a 0-3 is not impossible and the under would lose. There is also the question of whether a Ukraine side stung by that defeat opens up at home. That is why the stake is four, and why both teams failing to score – which does not depend on the total – is my alternative.
My main bet is **Under 2.5 Goals at 1.55 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-1.