In-form Cruz Azul host León with second place in sight
Pre-match update (01:15 CET): Official team sheets are not out yet, so the line-ups below are still predicted. Willer Ditta has been ruled out – Cruz Azul are not risking his toe fracture before the Tigres game – while José Paradela is back in the squad after his muscle injury, although a start is not confirmed. Neither changes my case: Ditta was not in my predicted XI, and Paradela is a bonus if he plays. Cruz Azul to win stays my bet at 3/10. The 1.59 is the Winz price from 31 October; I could not re-check it before kick-off, so it may have moved.
The champions arrive in form: unbeaten in five league games, three wins in a row and 16 goals in that run, the latest a 3-1 win at Querétaro. Joel Huiqui’s side are third on 26 points, two behind leaders América with three games left. León are sixth on 22 points after a 1-1 draw with Toluca and face Cruz Azul, Chivas and Santos in their final three games.
Predicted lineups: Cruz Azul vs León
Both XIs follow ClaroSports‘ predicted line-ups. José Paradela is back in the Cruz Azul squad after a muscle injury, but it is not confirmed that he starts. Willer Ditta misses out with a fractured toe, with a return pencilled in for the Tigres game. Amaury Morales is out long term. León list Luis Valadez and Ángel Estrada as doubts on FotMob.
Cruz Azul Team News & Preview
Cruz Azul have the second-best attack in Liga MX with 32 goals, backed by 27.7 expected goals, also the second-highest total, and 7.3 shots on target per game. At home they have won four, drawn one and lost two, scoring 17. Recent results show the attack is flowing: 5-0 against Juárez, 2-1 at Pachuca and 3-1 at Querétaro. Nicolás Ibáñez leads the scoring with five league goals.
The defence is the weak spot. Cruz Azul have conceded 23 goals, 12 of them at home, and drew 3-3 with both Toluca and Pumas earlier this autumn. Paradela, their highest-rated player on FotMob, would give them extra control if he is fit to start.
What works for or against Cruz Azul
- Three wins in a row, 16 goals in five games.
- Second-highest expected goals total in the league.
- 12 goals conceded in seven home games.
- Paradela back in the squad, Ditta ruled out.
León Team News & Preview
Javier Gandolfi’s side have one of the tighter defences in the league with 18 goals conceded, the third-best record, and four clean sheets. On the road it has been harder: two wins, three draws and two defeats, with eight goals scored and eight conceded. Their last five games bring a mixed picture, with a 2-0 win at Tigres but a 3-5 home defeat to América.
León’s expected goals numbers are almost identical at both ends, 20.8 for and 20.4 against, which suggests a mid-table side rather than a genuine contender. José Alvarado has five league goals.
What works for or against León
- Two wins in seven away league games.
- Expected goals for and against almost level.
- Third-best goals-against record in Liga MX.
- Won 2-1 against Cruz Azul in January.
Cruz Azul vs León Odds
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Cruz Azul vs. León Stats Comparison
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Cruz Azul vs. León Form Guide
Cruz Azul Form, Stats & Data
Cruz Azul’s expected goals against is the third-best in the league, so their 23 goals conceded look worse than the chances they allow. In attack they create more than anyone except one side.
León Form, Stats & Data
León concede fewer than their chances allowed suggest. Against an attack producing 7.3 shots on target per game, I expect that to be tested.
Cruz Azul vs León: Prediction & Betting Tip
Cruz Azul have the stronger underlying numbers, the better form and home advantage, and they are chasing first place. León are solid but ordinary on the road and have an even split between chances created and conceded.
The strongest argument against is León’s defensive record, the third-best in the league, and their 2-1 win over Cruz Azul in January. Cruz Azul have also drawn 3-3 twice in recent weeks, so they can let leads slip. That keeps me at 3/10, but I back Cruz Azul to win at 1.59 with Winz. My prediction is a 2-1 home win.