Santos need a response to Tijuana and three points for the Liguilla race
Pre-match update (23:10 CET): The official line-ups have not been released yet. I have found no new injuries or suspensions for either side since publication: Santos are still without Diego González, Efraín Orona, Lucas Di Yorio and Bruno Amione, while Javier Ruiz and Alexis Peña remain doubts for Necaxa. Most Mexican outlets now expect Esteban Lozano rather than Tahiel Jiménez to lead the line for Santos, and Reynoso to set Necaxa up in a 4-1-4-1. Neither changes my case for the home side, so the tip and the 3/10 stake stay as they are. The odds quoted are from 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Santos Laguna won six league games in a row from mid-September before a 1-4 defeat at Tijuana last weekend. Renato Paiva’s side are 11th on 19 points, one behind the teams in the top eight, with three games left, and local media describe Sunday’s game as one they have to win. Necaxa are 17th on 10 points and can no longer reach the top eight. They have not won since Juan Reynoso took over in September, according to Mexican reports.
“Creo que es el peor desde que llegamos, no nos adaptamos al juego.” (“I think it was the worst game since we arrived, we did not adapt to the game.”) – Santos manager Renato Paiva after the 1-4 at Tijuana, quoted by Infobae
Predicted lineups: Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
Both XIs follow El Siglo de Torreón’s predicted line-ups. FotMob lists Diego González, Efraín Orona, Lucas Di Yorio and Bruno Amione as injured for Santos. For Necaxa, Javier Ruiz and Alexis Peña are doubts. Julián Carranza, who missed a penalty in the 1-1 draw with Juárez, leads the line.
Santos Laguna Team News & Preview
The Corona has been the base of Santos‘ season. They have won four of seven home games, conceding three goals, and the last two at home ended 5-0 against Querétaro and 2-0 against Pumas. Paiva was blunt after Tijuana, saying his side lacked talent, quality and mental freshness, but the defeat came away from home after six straight wins.
Tahiel Jiménez leads the scoring with five league goals, and Fran Villalba is their highest-rated player. The club is planning a fan event at the stadium to push the team towards the Liguilla.
What works for or against Santos Laguna
- Three goals conceded in seven home league games.
- Six straight wins before the defeat at Tijuana.
- Lost 1-4 at Tijuana last weekend.
- Need the points to reach the top eight.
Necaxa Team News & Preview
Necaxa have lost four and drawn two of their last six league games, the latest a 1-1 at home to Juárez in which Carranza missed a penalty in first-half stoppage time and the visitors equalised from a corner in the 82nd minute. Away from home they have three draws and three defeats in six games, conceding 12 goals.
The numbers are not all bad. Necaxa have created 25.7 expected goals, the fourth-highest total in the league, and Carranza has seven league goals. Their problem is at the other end: 27 conceded, the second-worst record in the division.
What works for or against Necaxa
- No win in their last six league games.
- No win in six away league games.
- Fourth-highest expected goals total in the league.
- Won the last three meetings with Santos.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa Odds
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Santos Laguna Form, Stats & Data
Santos‘ overall numbers are average, but their home and away records are very different: 10:3 at the Corona, 10:17 on the road. That split is the reason I back them here.
Necaxa Form, Stats & Data
Necaxa create more than their 16 goals suggest, which is the main danger to this bet. Defensively they concede almost two goals per game.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa: Prediction & Betting Tip
Santos are strong at home and need the points, Necaxa have not won in six league games and have nothing left to play for in the table. I expect Paiva’s side to react to the Tijuana defeat in front of their own fans.
The strongest argument against is that Necaxa create more than their results show and have won the last three meetings, including 3-1 in Torreón in January. Santos also looked flat at Tijuana. That keeps this at 3/10, but I back Santos Laguna to win at 1.71 with Winz. My prediction is a 2-1 home win.