Five days after the 5-0, Union get their rematch – and Köln still have not won away from home
Pre-match update (14:30 CET): The official line-ups had not been released when I checked, so both XIs below are still the predicted ones. There is no new team news since publication: Uduokhai serves his suspension for Union, and Köln are still without Ache, Dallinga, Hübers, Skhiri, Rondić and van den Berg. Nothing has changed my view, so I am sticking with Union Berlin Draw No Bet at 2.00 (2/10) and the alternative, Köln under 1.5 team goals at 1.75 (1/10). The odds quoted are from Saturday (31 October); prices may have moved since.
Köln thrashed Union 5-0 in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday, with Said El Mala scoring twice, and Winz have them as favourites for the return in the league. I am not convinced the cup tie tells us much. Union played their reserve goalkeeper and a rotated side, while their league form has picked up: unbeaten in three, including a 0-0 against Dortmund. Köln, meanwhile, have lost all three away league games this season and travel without striker Ragnar Ache.
“Es ist wichtig, dass wir wieder unsere DNA, unsere Genetik, unsere Kompaktheit auf den Platz kriegen.” (“It’s important that we get our DNA, our genetics, our compactness back on the pitch.”) – Union coach Mauro Lustrinelli
Predicted lineups: Union vs Köln
Union are without Felix Uduokhai, who was sent off at Augsburg, so Querfeld is expected to come into central defence. Andrej Ilić and Nsoki are also out, and Skov is unlikely to be involved. Köln coach René Wagner said they would take no risk with Ache ahead of next week’s derby against Leverkusen, and Dallinga, Hübers, Skhiri, Rondić and van den Berg are also missing. bundesliga.com expects Köln to start with the same XI that won the cup tie, with El Mala partnering Bülter up front. Both line-ups follow bundesliga.com’s predicted XIs.
Union Berlin Team News & Preview
Union’s season numbers are poor. They are 17th, have scored six league goals and conceded 18, and their 7-0 defeat at Bayern skews the defensive record. At home they have been more competitive: one win, two draws and one defeat, including a 1-0 win over Elversberg and a 0-0 against Dortmund. The recent trend is better too, with five points from their last three league games.
Lustrinelli was angry after the cup defeat – „it annoys me when we lose like that on the pitch“ – and demanded a reaction. András Schäfer has been their highest-rated player this season, and Tim Skarke is their leading scorer with two league goals.
What works for or against Union
- Five points from the last three league games.
- Only one defeat in four home league games.
- Six league goals scored and 18 conceded.
- Uduokhai suspended, Ilić and Nsoki out.
1. FC Köln Team News & Preview
Köln are much stronger at home than away. They have taken eight points from four home games but none from three away trips, losing 4-1, 2-1 and 1-0, and they have scored only twice on the road. According to bundesliga.com, they have now gone 16 away league games without a win. Borna Sosa has been their best player this season, and El Mala has had 26 shots in seven league games, more than anyone apart from Olise and Kane.
The injury list is long. Without Ache, Dallinga and Rondić, Köln are short of options up front, and Hübers and Skhiri are long-term absentees. Wagner will also have one eye on the derby against Leverkusen next Sunday.
What works for or against Köln
- No points from three away league games.
- Ache, Dallinga and Rondić are all missing up front.
- Beat Union 5-0 in the cup on Tuesday.
- El Mala has scored twice and made one assist in the cup tie.
Union vs Köln Odds
Match Result
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Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Union Berlin vs. Cologne Stats Comparison
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Union Berlin vs. Cologne Form Guide
Union Berlin Form, Stats & Data
The expected goals against figure of 2.01 per game is high, but Union have conceded well over that, largely because of the defeats at Bayern and in the opening weeks. At home they have conceded six in four, a more manageable rate, and the three-game unbeaten run came with two clean sheets.
Cologne Form, Stats & Data
Köln create more than Union, 1.60 expected goals per game, and that is the main argument for them. But they have converted poorly in the league, and away from home their attack has produced two goals in three games.
Union vs Köln: Prediction & Betting Tip
The cup result makes Köln favourites, but it came against a rotated Union side in Cologne. In the league, Union are unbeaten in three with two clean sheets, while Köln have lost every away game and are without three strikers. Union will be motivated after Tuesday, and the Alten Försterei should be loud.
The strongest argument against the bet is the quality gap shown by the season numbers. Union have scored only six league goals, and El Mala in this form can decide a game on his own. If Union fall behind, they may not have the attack to come back. That is why I only stake 2/10 on Union Berlin Draw No Bet at 2.00 with Winz; a draw returns the stake. My prediction is 1-1.