Italy host a Türkiye side that has lost its two best attackers and its last three games
Italy host Türkiye at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna on Monday, 5 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 1, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Szymon Marciniak as referee. Italy are third on four points after a 0-2 against Belgium, a 4-1 in Bursa and a 1-1 in Paris; Türkiye are bottom with none, and fourth place in League A is relegated directly. The sides met eight days ago and Italy were three up inside half an hour. Since then Türkiye have lost 3-0 in Liège, have seen Güler and Yılmaz collect the bookings that rule them out here, and have a manager fielding questions about his resignation after every match. Mancini, in his fourth game of his second spell, has sent Kean home and told the press on Sunday that „cambieremo qualcosa in più“ – there will be more changes – and that the mistake would be to think this is a simple game.
„A Ligi’nde oynamak ayrıcalıktır, ceza değildir“ – Vincenzo Montella after the 3-0 in Liège: playing in League A is a privilege, not a punishment.
Predicted lineups: Italy vs Türkiye
Gianluca Di Marzio reported on Sunday that Mancini plans nine changes from Paris, and Corriere dello Sport agrees apart from one wing position: Donnarumma stays, Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini and Ruggeri come into the back four around Bastoni, Barella, Romano and Doumbia form the midfield, and Vergara and Maldini or Cambiaghi flank Scamacca. Kean „non ha recuperato“, said Mancini, and has gone home; Scamacca, in the manager’s words, „does not change the characteristics“. Türkiye’s side is forced: Güler and Yılmaz are suspended, Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, Kökçü and Müldür are injured – Montella listed all six on Sunday as „very big, very important absences“ – and Halk TV’s expected eleven has Yunus Akgün, Oğuz Aydın and Aktürkoğlu behind Deniz Gül, with Kabak back alongside Demiral. Uğurcan Çakır is in goal after serving his ban in Bursa.
Italy Team News & Preview
The week turned in Bursa. Booed off the Olimpico pitch after a passive first half against Belgium, Italy went to Türkiye and scored three in 27 minutes – Bastoni on nine, Frattesi on 22, Kayode on 27 – conceded to Yılmaz straight after half-time and answered within three minutes through Francesco Pio Esposito. In Paris, Mancini kept most of that side and got a different kind of result: 39 per cent of the ball, a compact block, Donnarumma making seven saves, Kean’s goal disallowed for offside, Olise’s free-kick, and Bastoni’s equaliser on 68 after Da Cunha’s error. Mancini called it „una partita veramente dura“ and said the team „ha fatto tutto perfettamente da squadra“; Bastoni said he was „proud of everyone“.
The question for Bologna is who plays. Italy have a 30-man squad, ten of whom stayed at Coverciano for the Bursa trip, and the Sunday projections involve nine changes. Donnarumma stays; Kean, whose fitness the manager had raised before both of the last two games, has not recovered and was sent home on Sunday, so Scamacca leads the line. Bastoni has scored in two consecutive games and the set-piece threat from him and Frattesi has been a feature; the defence has conceded four in three, two of them in the one bad half against Belgium. The history is as one-sided as any in European football – ten Italian wins and four draws in 14 meetings, every away game in Turkey won – but the last visit of Türkiye to this stadium, a friendly in June 2024, finished 0-0, and a rotated side against a team fighting for its manager’s job is the scenario in which a favourite gets frustrated.
What works for or against Italy
- A 4-1 over this opponent eight days ago with three goals in 27 minutes, then a point in Paris with a seven-save Donnarumma performance.
- Türkiye have never beaten Italy in 14 meetings and arrive without Güler and Yılmaz, their creator and their only scorer.
- Nine changes expected – Di Lorenzo, G. Mancini, Romano, Doumbia, Vergara and Scamacca have barely played this window – and Kean has gone home injured.
- Italy have not won in four games under Marciniak and the 2024 meeting here was a 0-0.
Türkiye Team News & Preview
Three games, three defeats, one goal. Türkiye lost 1-0 at home to France to a Mbappé goal and a late red card for Uğurcan, were 3-0 down to Italy after 27 minutes in Bursa, and then lost 3-0 in Liège to two De Bruyne goals and a Lukaku finish, despite having eight shots on target themselves and hitting the woodwork. Travelling fans chanted „Montella istifa“ after the second Belgian goal; Hürriyet noted it is the first time in Montella’s 39 matches that Türkiye have lost three in a row, and the first time since 1981 they have lost consecutive official matches by three goals. Montella’s answer has been consistent: the players fought to the end, the team is not used to League A or to playing every three days, and criticism should be directed at him.
The squad for Bologna is the thinnest of the window. Güler was booked in stoppage time against Belgium after an altercation with Ngoy, Yılmaz was booked from the bench, and both had a first caution from earlier in the group, so both sit this one out. Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız were never in the squad, Kökçü went home with a toe problem after Bursa, and Montella has called up Emirhan İlkhan and Yusuf Akçiçek from the under-21s. Uğurcan is back in goal and Demiral, Bardakcı and Çelik have played most of the minutes in a defence that has conceded eight. There is something to build on – Türkiye created real chances in Liège and improved after the Bursa half-time changes – but the players who made those chances are the ones who are missing, and the one man who has scored is suspended.
What works for or against Türkiye
- Güler and Yılmaz suspended, Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız and Kökçü injured – the creative core and the only goalscorer of the campaign are all unavailable.
- Three straight defeats, eight goals conceded, one scored, and a 1-4 against this opponent eight days ago.
- Eight shots on target in Liège and a better side after half-time in Bursa – the chance creation is not the whole problem.
- Uğurcan Çakır is back from suspension and Türkiye drew 0-0 at this ground in June 2024.
Italy vs Türkiye Odds
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Italy Form, Stats & Data
Five goals scored and four conceded in three games, four of the five goals in one half in Bursa, and the point in Paris owed a great deal to Donnarumma. What I take from the window is that Mancini has found two things: a back line with Bastoni scoring from set pieces, and a group of young forwards – the Esposito brothers, Kayode from full-back – who score when the game opens up. The risk on Monday is self-inflicted: a side with nine changes needs time to click, and a Türkiye team under this much pressure will start fast. I expect Italy to win because the opponent has lost its goalscorers, not because the rotated eleven is guaranteed to be fluent.
Türkiye Form, Stats & Data
One goal scored and eight conceded in three games, and the one goal came from a player who is now suspended. The attacking output has not been as bad as the scoreline – eight on target in Liège, a strong second half in Bursa – but the finishing has been poor and the defence has been opened up early in every game. Without Güler there is no one to play the final pass, and without Yılmaz or Yıldız the striker is Deniz Gül or a winger moved inside. I expect Türkiye to be organised and committed for their manager and still to struggle to score, which is why a Turkish blank is my alternative to the Italian win.
Italy vs Türkiye: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the suspensions settle what was already a lopsided fixture. Italy beat this opponent 4-1 eight days ago with Güler and Yılmaz on the pitch; Türkiye now come to Bologna without both, without three more first-choice players through injury, with one goal in three games and a manager being asked about his job after every match. Italy have never lost to Türkiye, have won every away game in Turkey, and are at home with a fresh group of players to call on.
The strongest argument against is Italy’s rotation. Nine changes, players who have had a handful of minutes in the window, and a 0-0 the last time these sides met at this ground are the ingredients of a frustrating evening, and Türkiye created enough in Liège to suggest a goal is not impossible even without Güler. Marciniak’s record with Italy – no wins in four – is a footnote rather than a reason, but it adds to the sense that this is a game Italy should win rather than one they will cruise. That is why the stake is three, and why the Turkish blank, which also wins if the game is 0-0, is the alternative rather than a handicap.
My main bet is **Italy to win at 1.39 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 2-0.