A Romania defence in freefall meets a Sweden side that has forgotten how to keep a clean sheet
Romania host Sweden at the Arena Națională in Bucharest on Monday, 5 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League B, Group 4, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST and Elchin Masiyev of Azerbaijan as referee. Sweden lead the group with seven points after a 1-1 in Zenica; Romania are bottom with none after a 1-2 in Solna, a 2-4 at home to Bosnia behind closed doors and a 0-6 in Warsaw that Digisport called a humiliation. The first meeting a week ago was a 2-1 to Sweden with Isak, Man and Gyökeres scoring. Since then Sweden have lost Isak, Ekdal, Starfelt and a string of players to illness, Romania have lost both centre-backs to suspension, and the Romanian press has moved from analysing the team to discussing the manager’s future. More than 40,000 tickets have been sold for Hagi’s first home game in front of a crowd.
„Eu sunt principalul vinovat, eu plănuiesc totul“ – Gheorghe Hagi after the 0-6 in Warsaw: I am the main culprit, I plan everything.
Predicted lineups: Romania vs Sweden
Hagi’s 23 for Monday, named on Sunday, is missing nine players: Drăgușin and Ghiță suspended, Bîrligea, Munteanu and Marius Marin injured, and Burcă, Racovițan, Borza and David Matei left out. There is no recognised striker in the group and Hagi called up no replacement, so Romanian outlets expect Man and Tănase as a front two with Stanciu behind them, Coubiș and Eissat in central defence, and Ianis Hagi on the bench; Radu, who missed Warsaw with a shoulder problem, is expected back in goal. Sweden’s side follows the confirmed availability – Potter’s Sunday update was „alla är okej“, everyone is fine – with Lindelöf and Eric Smith the fit senior centre-backs, Eriksson just arrived as cover, Bergvall back after being rested in Zenica, and Gyökeres up front with Isak and Nygren out. The Swedish eleven below is a preview-site projection rather than a report from the Swedish dailies.
Romania Team News & Preview
Warsaw was the lowest point of a bad week. Romania started well – Răzvan Marin forced a save inside ten minutes and Bîrligea had two chances – and then Drăgușin pushed Lewandowski in the box on 22, was sent off, and Lewandowski scored the penalty. Poland scored three in the first quarter of an hour of the second half, including a Ghiță own goal and a Zieliński goal after a Răzvan Marin error, and finished with 24 shots and 3.47 expected goals to Romania’s 0.56. Twelve goals conceded in three games is the worst defensive record in the whole competition, and the two men who started in central defence on Friday are now both suspended. Hagi took the blame – „eu sunt principalul vinovat“ – said the pain was „too great“ to analyse, and promised „evaluations“ after the four matches; Florin Prunea had already said on television that Hagi would be gone if Romania lost to Poland and Sweden.
The counter-weight is that Romania do score. Man beat Sweden’s defence on the counter in Solna, Munteanu hit the bar early in that game, Bîrligea headed in against Bosnia and Cicâldău volleyed a second, and even in Warsaw the opening ten minutes produced chances. Hagi has rotated so heavily – only Drăgușin started all three games – that there is no settled side, and the Sunday squad list makes it thinner still: Bîrligea and Munteanu are injured, no striker was called up, and Man and Tănase are expected to play as a front two with Ianis Hagi dropped to the bench. Hagi’s line on Sunday was that this is „o chestiune de onoare“, a matter of honour. Against a Sweden defence that has conceded in 13 straight matches under Potter and now has two fit senior centre-backs, I still expect Romania to get at least one chance that counts, but the lack of a striker is why the stake comes down. Keeping Gyökeres out is another matter entirely.
What works for or against Romania
- Twelve goals conceded in three games, the worst defence in the Nations League, and both starting centre-backs suspended for Monday.
- Three defeats from three under Hagi, a 0-6 in Warsaw, and open calls in the Romanian press for the manager to go.
- Romania have scored in two of three games – Man against Sweden, Bîrligea and Cicâldău against Bosnia – and started brightly in Solna and Warsaw.
- First home game with a crowd under Hagi, more than 40,000 tickets sold, but tickets are being resold below the original price.
Sweden Team News & Preview
Sweden were the better side in Zenica and came away with a point. Gyökeres scored on 61 minutes from a Bernhardsson pass, Sweden had eight shots to four and 1.05 expected goals to 0.11, and then conceded on 80 when an Alajbegović cross from a free-kick situation deflected in off the post with Johansson’s positioning questioned. Starfelt had already gone off on the half-hour with a hamstring injury; Potter said on the night that he would „obviously miss the Romania match“, and on Saturday the federation confirmed he had left for Celta Vigo and that Victor Eriksson of Hammarby had been called up. Gyökeres called the draw „surt“ and said Sweden deserved to win.
The absentee list is now into double figures. Isak and Ekdal left after the first game, Holm was stretchered off against Romania, Stroud and Wålemark went home ill and are ruled out, and Ayari, Lagerbielke, Nygren and Mellberg remain unavailable through illness, which means the attack is Gyökeres plus whoever is fit around him and the central defence is Lindelöf, Eric Smith and a newcomer. The pattern of the results is the one that matters for this fixture: Sweden have scored in every game of the window, and they have conceded in every one of Potter’s 13 matches, the only blank being the 0-3 against France. Gyökeres has three goals in three Nations League games and has been the best player on the pitch twice. A Swedish win is the likeliest result; a Swedish clean sheet, against a side that has scored in two of three and with this back line, is the thing I do not expect.
What works for or against Sweden
- Seven points from three, Gyökeres scoring in every game, and a 2-1 win over this opponent a week ago.
- Romania's two starting centre-backs are suspended and the Romanian defence has conceded twelve in three.
- No clean sheet in 13 matches under Potter, Starfelt gone, and Lindelöf plus Eric Smith the only fit senior centre-backs.
- Ten players lost to injury or illness in the window, including Isak, Ayari and Nygren, with the squad flying Sarajevo–Bucharest on Saturday.
Romania vs Sweden Odds
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AS Romania vs. Sweden Stats Comparison
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AS Romania vs. Sweden Form Guide
AS Romania Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored and twelve conceded in three games, and the twelve is the number everyone in Romania is talking about. Wyscout’s figures from the Bosnia game – 47 per cent of passes sideways, aerial duels lost two to one – and the 3.47 expected goals Poland generated show a side without defensive structure, and that was with Drăgușin and Ghiță available. What I take from the three games is that Romania will concede, and that they will also create something early, as they did in Solna and Warsaw. A home crowd and a manager fighting for his job should produce a fast start; a clean sheet should not be expected from either end.
Sweden Form, Stats & Data
Six goals scored and three conceded in three games, with Gyökeres responsible for half the goals and Potter’s side clearly the better team on chances in Zenica. The problem is the one that has followed Potter since he took the job: 13 games, no clean sheet. Sweden limited Bosnia to 0.11 expected goals and still conceded, and the set-piece goal in Zenica was the third they have conceded in the window, each from very little. With Starfelt gone and a Hammarby centre-back flown in as cover, I expect Sweden to score – they always do – and to let one in again, which is why both teams scoring is my main bet and the win is the alternative.
Romania vs Sweden: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this fixture is defined by two defences that cannot keep the ball out. Romania have conceded twelve in three and now lose both starting centre-backs; Sweden have not kept a clean sheet in 13 matches under Potter, have just lost Starfelt, and conceded in Zenica after limiting the opponent to almost nothing. At the other end, Gyökeres has scored in every game and Romania have scored in two of three, including against this Swedish back line in Solna. A home crowd of more than 40,000 and a manager under siege should mean Romania attack from the start.
The strongest argument against is that Sweden’s defensive numbers in Zenica were excellent apart from the result – 0.11 expected goals against – and that Romania, without Drăgușin and Ghiță, could simply collapse the way they did in Warsaw, which would produce a Swedish win to nil rather than goals at both ends. A 0-2 or 0-3 is a real possibility if the home side’s early chances are wasted. Romania going into the game without a recognised striker makes that outcome more likely than it was on Saturday. That is why the Swedish win is my alternative, and why the stake is three rather than four.
My main bet is **Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.58 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-3.