Battered Lecce face a Genoa side on the up under De Rossi
Pre-match update (17:10 CET): The official line-ups are not out yet, so the XIs below are still predicted and I will confirm them closer to kick-off. Italian reports this morning list Willem Geubbels and Medon Berisha as unavailable rather than doubtful, which leaves Lecce without five players plus the suspended Kialonda Gaspar. On the Genoa side, Vásquez, Østigard and Osmajić are expected to start and Ellertsson is set for the bench. Nothing here weakens the case for Genoa, so the bet stays Genoa Draw No Bet at 1.60 with Winz (2/10). The odds quoted are from 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Three days after a 1-5 defeat at Frosinone, Lecce host Genoa with a growing injury list and a manager who was openly unhappy with his side’s attitude. Eusebio Di Francesco’s team are 14th with nine points, one behind Genoa. Daniele De Rossi’s side have won back-to-back league games without conceding, 1-0 against Venezia and 2-0 against Juventus on Wednesday.
“Abbiamo gettato la spugna, è questo a darmi fastidio.” (“We threw in the towel, that is what annoys me.”) – Lecce manager Eusebio Di Francesco after the defeat at Frosinone, quoted by Calcio Lecce
Predicted lineups: Lecce vs Genoa
Both XIs follow FotMob’s predicted line-ups. Lecce are without Lassana Coulibaly, Ivan Ilić and Santiago Pierotti through injury, Kialonda Gaspar is suspended, and Willem Geubbels and Medon Berisha have now also been ruled out, according to Tuttosport. Di Francesco had already spoken of a crowded treatment room before the Frosinone game. De Rossi said Johan Vásquez, Leo Østigard and Milutin Osmajić will all start, and that Hamed Traoré’s return will be a big help. Mikael Egill Ellertsson is expected to be on the bench.
Lecce Team News & Preview
Lecce’s last two games have gone badly: 0-2 at home to Juventus and then 1-5 at Frosinone, where Di Francesco said his side gave up. At the Via del Mare they have won one and lost three, conceding ten goals in four games, and their 18.5 expected goals against is one of the worst figures in Serie A. They also have the lowest average possession in the league at 40.5 per cent.
Losing Coulibaly hurts more than most absences would. He is their top scorer with two league goals and their highest-rated player, and with Ilić also out, the midfield is short of quality and legs, with another game coming only three days after the trip to Frosinone.
What works for or against Lecce
- 1-5 defeat at Frosinone three days ago.
- Ten goals conceded in four home league games.
- Coulibaly, Ilić and Pierotti out, Gaspar suspended.
- Beat Genoa 1-0 at home in May.
Genoa Team News & Preview
Genoa’s recent results are better than their numbers. They have won three of their last four league games, including 2-1 against Fiorentina, and kept clean sheets against Venezia and Juventus. De Rossi gave his players two days off after the Juventus win, which he contrasted with the one day other sides get.
The weak point is the attack. Genoa have created only 7.7 expected goals in nine games, the second-lowest total in Serie A, and average 2.9 shots on target, the fewest in the league. They have also lost all three of their away league games, scoring once.
What works for or against Genoa
- Three wins from their last four league games.
- Clean sheets against Venezia and Juventus.
- Fewest shots on target per game in Serie A.
- Lost all three away league games.
Lecce vs Genoa Odds
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Lecce vs. Genoa Stats Comparison
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Lecce vs. Genoa Form Guide
Lecce Form, Stats & Data
Lecce allow more than two expected goals per game and have the lowest possession in the league. Without Coulibaly, I expect them to spend even longer without the ball.
Genoa Form, Stats & Data
Genoa defend reasonably well, with the sixth-best expected goals against figure in the league, but create less than almost anyone. Osmajić leads the line, and De Rossi has said the striker excites him.
Lecce vs Genoa: Prediction & Betting Tip
Genoa arrive with confidence, a better defence and an extra day of rest, while Lecce are short of key players three days after a heavy defeat their manager described as giving up. I think that gap in form and fitness makes Genoa the more likely winners, and Draw No Bet protects the stake if it ends level.
The strongest argument against is Genoa’s attack and away record: the fewest shots on target in the league and three defeats from three on the road. That is why this is only a small bet at 2/10: Genoa Draw No Bet at 1.60 with Winz. My prediction is a 0-1 away win.