Five away games, no goals: Getafe’s blank streak meets a Villarreal side under pressure
Getafe’s away record this season is as stark as it gets in La Liga: five games, five defeats, no goals scored and 12 conceded. José Bordalás brings his side to La Cerámica three days after a 1-0 Conference League defeat to Brighton, admitting afterwards that his players had paid for the effort and some were running on empty. Villarreal have their own worries – back-to-back home defeats, including a 6-0 hammering by PSG in the Champions League – and Íñigo Pérez has called this „the key“ game for his side.
„We’re the only team in the top five divisions with no wingers.“ – José Bordalás (via Sport Aragón, translated from Spanish)
Predicted lineups: Villarreal vs Getafe
Gerard Moreno, Juan Foyth and Ilias Akhomach will not make Sunday’s game with muscle problems, and Alassane Diatta needs hamstring surgery. Pape Gueye is back from suspension and should partner Santi Comesaña in midfield, with Georges Mikautadze leading the line. Bordalás is expected to stick with his 4-4-2, with Martín Satriano and Enes Ünal up front. Zaid Romero is a doubt with a thigh problem, and Christantus Uche and Juanmi are out.
Villarreal Team News & Preview
Villarreal’s underlying numbers are far better than their position. They have 61 per cent of the ball on average, create 1.99 expected goals per game and allow just 1.10, but they are tenth with a home record of one win, one draw and three defeats. The 1-0 defeat to Espanyol a week ago was typical: the better first half, Pépé hitting the post twice, and then a lot of crosses once they fell behind.
Pérez has admitted his side struggle against deep, compact defences and says they have worked on it in training. He has also ruled out drastic changes, preferring analysis to reaction. The 6-0 against PSG was a heavy blow, but it came against a very different kind of opponent from the one they face on Sunday.
What works for or against Villarreal
- 1.99 xG for and only 1.10 xG against per game.
- Five days of rest, against three for Getafe.
- Lost their last two home games, including 6-0 to PSG.
- Struggle to break down deep defensive blocks.
Getafe Team News & Preview
Getafe’s home form – including a 3-1 comeback win over Sevilla last week – has kept them in mid-table. Away from home, they have been toothless. Five league trips have brought no goals at all, and across the season they create only 0.69 expected goals per game with 2.7 shots on target, the lowest numbers in this fixture by a distance. They have 38 per cent of the ball on average and Bordalás has said openly that his squad has no wingers.
The Brighton game on Thursday adds to the problem. Getafe defended well in the first half but faded late, and they now travel with three days‘ rest against a Villarreal side that had five. Satriano, with three league goals, is their top scorer.
What works for or against Getafe
- Beat Sevilla 3-1 at home last weekend.
- No away league goals this season (0-12 in five games).
- 0.69 expected goals and 2.7 shots on target per game.
- Played on Thursday in the Conference League.
Villarreal vs Getafe Odds
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Villarreal Form, Stats & Data
Villarreal have scored 15 from almost 22 expected goals, so finishing has been the issue rather than chance creation. Defensively they are sound in open play, and they keep the ball well, which limits how often a counter-attacking side can get at them. Against a team as blunt as Getafe on the road, I expect them to control territory for most of the game.
Getafe Form, Stats & Data
Eight goals in 11 league games and fewer than one expected goal per match make Getafe one of the least threatening sides in the division. Bordalás builds everything on structure and set pieces, and away from home that has produced nothing at all in front of goal. Tired legs after Thursday will not help their chances of breaking that run.
Villarreal vs Getafe: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not betting on the result here; I am betting on Getafe’s attack. They have not scored in five away league games, they create less than anyone else in this fixture, they have no natural width and they arrive with three days‘ rest after a European tie. Villarreal, for all their problems, allow only 1.10 expected goals per game and keep the ball.
The strongest argument against is Villarreal’s fragility. They have lost two home games in a row and conceded six to PSG, and a set piece or an error is always possible against a Bordalás side. A five-game run is also a small sample. Even so, everything about Getafe’s away profile points one way. Getafe under 0.5 team goals at 2.03 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 1-0 home win.