Union’s European high meets a rested Genk side that is better than its table position
Union Saint-Gilloise are flying. They won 2-1 at Celta Vigo on Thursday night, their second straight Europa League win, and they are unbeaten in the league, one point behind Club Brugge. The trip to Spain comes at a cost, though: three days later they host a Genk side that has had a full week off and, on the underlying numbers, has been just as dangerous as Union this season. Genk are only sixth, nine points off the top four, and Daan Heymans returns from suspension.
„We knew it wouldn’t be an easy night and that we’d have to give up the ball.“ – David Hubert after the win at Celta (via Sporza, translated from Dutch)
Predicted lineups: Union vs Genk
The line-ups below are based on each side’s last starting XI. Union are without Dylan Aquino, who received a one-match ban for his red card at Beveren, as well as Kevin Mac Allister, Mateo Biondic and Ondřej Kričfaluši. Genk have no new absences, and Heymans is available again after serving a one-game ban.
Union Saint-Gilloise Team News & Preview
Union are second with 26 points from ten games, eight wins and two draws, with 29 goals scored and seven conceded. They have won all five away league games, but at home they have drawn two of five, so the Joseph Mariën is not quite the fortress their record suggests. Massiré Sylla has the best FotMob rating in the squad and Raul Florucz is top scorer with five league goals.
Thursday was hard work. Celta had long spells on the ball, Besfort Zeneli scored twice and missed a penalty, and goalkeeper Hervé Koffi made several important saves. David Hubert said his side knew they would have to give up possession. Sunday is their third game in eight days, and they also played away in the league last Saturday.
What works for or against Union
- Unbeaten in the league, 29 goals scored.
- Won all five away league games.
- Played away in Spain on Thursday night.
- Two draws in five home league games.
KRC Genk Team News & Preview
Genk’s results have not matched their performances. They create 2.05 expected goals per game and allow 1.08, almost identical to Union’s figures, but they are sixth with 15 points, and away from home they have two draws and three defeats. The 1-0 defeat at Mechelen last Saturday, without the suspended Heymans, was the latest frustration.
Jess Thorup has had a full week to prepare, and Heymans, who has lost all eight of his top-flight games against Union, says he wants to end that run. Rafiu Durosinmi, with six league goals, leads the line, and Joris Kayembe Ditu has been their highest-rated player.
What works for or against Genk
- A full week of rest, no European football.
- 2.05 expected goals for and 1.08 against per game.
- No away league win this season.
- Heymans has lost all eight of his top-flight games against Union.
Union vs Genk Odds
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Union SG vs. KRC Genk Stats Comparison
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Union SG vs. KRC Genk Form Guide
Union SG Form, Stats & Data
Union have scored 29 goals from about 20 expected and conceded seven from about ten, so they have been both clinical and fortunate. They are a very good side, but their results are running ahead of the chances they create and allow.
KRC Genk Form, Stats & Data
Genk are the opposite case: they have scored fewer than their chances suggest and conceded more. On expected goals alone they are level with Union, which is a big gap between performance and table position.
Union vs Genk: Prediction & Betting Tip
Union are the form team, but the gap between these sides is smaller than the table shows. Genk create as much as Union and allow almost as little, they are fully rested, and Union are three days on from a demanding European night in Spain, without Aquino. I think Genk are well capable of avoiding defeat here.
The strongest argument against is Union’s sheer momentum. They have not lost a league game all season, and Genk have not won away from home. That is why I am taking the draw as well and keeping the stake small. Genk Double Chance at 2.30 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I expect a 1-1 draw.