Borja Jiménez’s Cádiz test one of the tightest defences in LaLiga Hypermotion
Pre-match update (20:25 CET): Nothing in today’s news changes my view. Cádiz’s 23-man travelling squad confirms Jandro Orellana and Vladyslav Kopotun are out, with Noah, Javi Castro and Javier Ontiveros back in it. For Mallorca there is no fresh injury news: John Donald was still a doubt in the latest local reports and Alberto Moreno is expected to play. The official line-ups were not out when I checked, so the XIs below are still predictions. I am sticking with Under 2.5 Goals at 1.92 with MyStake for 3/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication, so prices may have moved since.
Cádiz have changed coach again. Albert Celades was sacked last week, and Borja Jiménez has started with two wins: 3-1 against Ceuta in the league and 3-1 at Xerez in the Copa. They are still 19th on ten points, though, and now face a Mallorca side that has conceded only six goals in 11 league games. Luis García’s team have their own problem: one win in five has dropped them out of the play-off places, and the schedule gives them three games in seven days.
“Es algo totalmente ilógico y tenemos que expresarlo.” (“It is completely illogical and we have to say so.”) – Luis García on Mallorca’s schedule, quoted by Última Hora
Predicted lineups: Mallorca vs Cádiz
Mallorca are without John Donald, and FotMob also lists Antoniu Roca, Manu Morlanes and Jan Salas as injured. Alberto Moreno took a knock at Butarque but is expected to play, and Josep Cerdà and Arnau Puigmal are available. Adrián Fuentes, the top scorer with six league goals, should lead the line. Cádiz are missing Iuri Tabatadze, Giorgi Gocholeishvili, Gonzalo Petit, Jandro Orellana and Vladyslav Kopotun. The line-ups below are EFE’s predicted XIs.
Mallorca Team News & Preview
Mallorca’s season has been built on defence. They have six clean sheets, have conceded six league goals, and at Son Moix the record reads 2-0, 3-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 3-1. Antonio Raíllo is their highest-rated player, and only two of their 11 league games have gone over 2.5 goals.
The concern is at the other end. EFE says the team lacks a cutting edge despite creating chances, and the numbers agree: five goals in the last five league games, 3.9 shots on target per game and 1.25 expected goals per game. With a Copa trip to Alcoyano on Thursday, I do not expect García to chase the game if Mallorca go ahead.
What works for or against Mallorca
- Six goals conceded in 11 league games and six clean sheets.
- Only two goals conceded in five home league games.
- Five goals in their last five league games and one win.
- Third game in seven days, with the Copa on Thursday.
Cádiz Team News & Preview
Jiménez’s arrival has given Cádiz a lift, and that is the main risk for this bet. Before he came in, though, Cádiz had failed to score in two games, losing to Sporting Gijón and Granada. Their underlying numbers are similar to Mallorca’s: 1.25 expected goals for and 1.16 against per game, with only 3.5 shots on target per game.
Antoñito Cordero is their top scorer with four league goals. Six of Cádiz’s 11 league games have finished with two goals or fewer, so they are not a natural goals team either, and this is Jiménez’s first away league game in charge.
What works for or against Cádiz
- Two wins out of two under Borja Jiménez.
- 19th in the table with ten points.
- Only 3.5 shots on target per game this season.
- Five players out injured, including Tabatadze and Gocholeishvili.
Mallorca vs Cádiz Odds
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Mallorca Form, Stats & Data
Mallorca concede far less than their expected goals against suggest, which says something about their goalkeeper and centre-backs. Their own attack is modest, and 19 goals in 11 league games, at both ends combined, is a very low total.
Cadiz Form, Stats & Data
Cádiz’s goal difference is level, and their expected goals numbers are close to Mallorca’s, which tells me they are better than 19th. That makes a Mallorca rout less likely. It also means neither side has an attack that is likely to break the game open.
Mallorca vs Cádiz: Prediction & Betting Tip
Nine of Mallorca’s 11 league games have finished with two goals or fewer, they have conceded twice in five home games, and their own attack has scored five times in five. Cádiz create about as much as Mallorca do, which is not a lot, and Mallorca’s manager has a Copa game on Thursday to think about.
The strongest argument against the bet is Cádiz under Jiménez: they have scored three goals in each of his two games, and Mallorca recently beat Las Palmas 3-1 at Son Moix. I still think the season-long profile of both teams is a better guide than two games under a new coach, so I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 1.92 with MyStake for 3/10. I see Mallorca winning 1-0.