Carrick’s United meet the form side of Serie A at the worst possible time
Pre-match update (20:10 CET): The team sheets are in, and Roma have lost another goalkeeper. Pierluigi Gollini, who was covering for the injured Mile Svilar, hurt his back in the final training session, so third-choice Devis Vasquez starts – his first competitive game since April. Malen, Soulé and Rodrigo Mora all start, while Gasperini has made two changes to his predicted back five, with Devyne Rensch and Leonardo Balerdi in for Nahuel Molina and Evan Ndicka. United start Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro, Kobbie Mainoo and Amad Diallo, with Lisandro Martínez, Matthijs de Ligt and Mason Mount on the bench. Roma’s front three is intact, so I am sticking with Roma Draw No Bet, but a keeper this short of match practice is a real extra risk, so I am dropping the stake from 3/10 to 2/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 2 November; prices may have moved since.
Michael Carrick spent most of Monday’s press conference answering questions about his own future. Manchester United have gone nine games without a win in all competitions, lost 2-0 at Chelsea on Saturday and sit one place above the Premier League relegation zone with seven points from nine games. Roma arrive in the opposite mood: unbeaten after ten Serie A matches, 5-2 winners at Udinese at the weekend and with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side scoring freely. Both clubs have four Champions League points or fewer after three games, so a defeat here hurts either of them.
“I can’t look into the future, you never know what’s going to happen. That doesn’t change how we’re preparing for the game tomorrow.” – Michael Carrick, pre-match press conference
Predicted lineups: Man United vs Roma
Carrick confirmed that Luke Shaw will not be available, Marcus Rashford is a big doubt, and Patrick Dorgu is back in training but will not be involved. Benjamin Šeško and Manuel Ugarte remain out. Leny Yoro has shaken off his tendon problem and starts, alongside Ayden Heaven, while Lisandro Martínez, available in Europe despite his domestic ban, is only on the bench. Kobbie Mainoo and Amad Diallo come into the side. Roma are without Mile Svilar, and Pierluigi Gollini hurt his back in the final training session, so Devis Vasquez starts in goal. Manu Koné, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paulo Dybala are also missing. The line-ups below are the confirmed starting XIs.
Manchester United Team News & Preview
The numbers behind the slump are stark. United have lost 2-0 at Atlético Madrid, drawn 1-1 at Leeds, lost 4-1 at Como, lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth and lost 2-0 at Chelsea. That is two goals in five games, and the defeat by Bournemouth came at Old Trafford. Bryan Mbeumo is their top league scorer with four, and Bruno Fernandes remains their highest-rated player, but they are not turning possession into chances.
Kobbie Mainoo said the squad is „one win away“ from changing the mood, and the dressing room may well be behind Carrick. The problem is the quality of the opponent. With Shaw and Dorgu out at left-back and Martínez left on the bench, the defence that conceded 15 league goals in nine games has very little room to change.
What works for or against Man United
- Nine games without a win in all competitions.
- Two goals in their last five games.
- Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo are available.
- Shaw, Dorgu, Šeško, Ugarte and Rashford all miss out.
Roma Team News & Preview
Gasperini’s side have scored 28 goals in ten league games and conceded only ten. They followed a 3-3 draw in Naples with a 4-2 win over Cagliari and a 5-2 win at Udinese, and they beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 in their last home Champions League game. Donyell Malen has eight league goals and three in Europe, and Gasperini took him and Matías Soulé off early on Saturday to keep them fresh.
The absences are real, though. Svilar is Roma’s first-choice goalkeeper, and with Gollini now out with a back problem as well, third-choice Devis Vasquez plays his first competitive game since April. Koné and Pellegrini are missing from midfield, which puts more on Bryan Cristante and Marten de Roon. Roma stayed in Udine rather than travel home before flying to Manchester, so the preparation has been short.
What works for or against Roma
- Unbeaten after ten Serie A games, with 28 goals scored.
- Malen has eight league goals and three in the Champions League.
- Svilar, Gollini, Koné, Pellegrini and Dybala are all missing.
- Lost 4-3 at home to Real Madrid and drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe in Europe.
Man United vs Roma Odds
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Man United vs. AS Roma Stats Comparison
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Man United vs. AS Roma Form Guide
Man United Form, Stats & Data
United’s expected goals are better than their results, but not by enough to call this bad luck. They allow more chances than they create, and the league table, 17th with ten goals in nine games, reflects that.
AS Roma Form, Stats & Data
Roma create 2.28 expected goals per league game and average 6.3 shots on target, numbers United cannot get close to at the moment. Their defence has conceded fewer goals than its expected goals against suggest, and Svilar is part of the reason, so his absence is the main risk.
Man United vs Roma: Prediction & Betting Tip
On current form there is a clear gap between these sides. United have won none of their last nine games and scored twice in five, while Roma are unbeaten in Serie A and have scored 12 goals in their last three league games. I think Roma are the more likely winners, even at Old Trafford.
The strongest argument against it is the Roma injury list, and it has got longer. Without Svilar, Gollini, Koné, Pellegrini and Dybala, and after a short turnaround from Udine, they are not at full strength. Devis Vasquez in goal is the change that worries me most, and United at home in Europe can still raise their level. That is why I want the draw covered and why I have trimmed the stake after the team news. I am backing Roma Draw No Bet at 2.02 with MyStake for 2/10. I can see Roma winning 2-1.