Bottom of the table, but Sønderjyske keep finding the net at home
Pre-match update (18:35 CET): FCK have named their starting XI and there is no wholesale rotation for Europe: Elyounoussi and Cornelius both start, with Huescas and Meling coming in and Marcos López and Delaney on the bench. Robert and Mattsson are injured. Sønderjyske had not confirmed their line-up at the time of this update, but there is no report of De Rosario or Cherif being unavailable. I am sticking with Sønderjyske over 0.5 team goals, but with the expected FCK rotation not happening I am dropping the stake from 4/10 to 3/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication; prices may have moved since.
Sønderjyske are bottom of the Superliga with eight points from 12 games and were thrashed 5-1 at AC Horsens last weekend, so FC København arrive in Haderslev as heavy favourites. Bo Svensson’s side are second, two points behind Midtjylland, but their recent run is less convincing than the table suggests. They have drawn with OB, AGF and Crvena Zvezda in the last three weeks, and with a Conference League game on Thursday and the derby against Brøndby on Sunday, this is a busy week.
Predicted lineups: Sønderjyske vs FC København
FCK’s starting XI is confirmed: Ramaj; Beijmo, Asger Sørensen, Markgráf, Meling, Huescas; Clem, Král, Mads Emil Madsen; Elyounoussi, Cornelius. The club did not state a formation, so the shape on the pitch graphic below is my reading of the XI. There are four changes from the cup win at Aarhus Fremad, but this is close to Svensson’s strongest available side: Marcos López, Delaney and Carrizo are on the bench, while Maseko, Mattsson, Nasnas and Robert are injured. Sønderjyske had not published their line-up at the time of my update. Danish media still expect Fatah Abdirahman to start Osaze De Rosario, their highest-rated player, and top scorer Mohamed Cherif, and neither has been reported injured. Rasmus Vinderslev, Ebube Duru and Marcus Bundgaard are expected to miss out.
Sønderjyske Team News & Preview
There is no hiding from the defensive numbers. Sønderjyske have conceded 29 goals in 12 league games, and their expected goals against of 21.9 is one of the worst figures in the division. The 5-1 defeat at Horsens was the second time this season they have conceded five against the same opponent.
At home, though, they have been a different side going forward. They beat Randers 4-2 and Silkeborg 4-0 in their last two home league wins, scored twice against both Midtjylland and Horsens, and have scored in four of six home games. They average 4.4 shots on target per game, which is not the profile of a team that struggles to create. Cherif has five league goals, and De Rosario’s FotMob rating of 7.38 is the best in the squad.
What works for or against Sønderjyske
- Scored in four of their six home league games.
- De Rosario and Cherif have not been reported injured.
- Bottom of the table with 29 goals conceded in 12 games.
- Lost 5-1 at AC Horsens last weekend.
FC København Team News & Preview
FCK have one of the strongest attacks in the league by expected goals and Elyounoussi is in excellent form, so I expect them to score. The question for this bet is whether they keep a clean sheet, and their away record suggests that is far from certain. They have kept two clean sheets in six league away games, and in their last three games before the cup they drew 2-2 in Belgrade and 1-1 at home to both AGF and OB.
The schedule matters as well. Svensson faces Iberia 1999 on Thursday and Brøndby next Sunday, but the confirmed XI shows he has not rotated heavily here: Elyounoussi and Cornelius both start. Even in August, when FCK won the reverse fixture 3-1 at Parken, Sønderjyske scored.
What works for or against FC København
- Elyounoussi has seven league goals.
- Only 12 league goals conceded in 12 games.
- Two clean sheets in six away league games.
- Three competitive games in seven days, with Europe on Thursday.
Sønderjyske vs FC København Odds
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Sonderjyske vs. Copenhagen Stats Comparison
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Sonderjyske vs. Copenhagen Form Guide
Sonderjyske Form, Stats & Data
Sønderjyske have scored more goals (17) than their expected goals (13.8) suggest, but they have done most of that at home, where they have scored 12 times in six games. The defence is the reason they are bottom, not a lack of attacking threat.
Copenhagen Form, Stats & Data
FCK are the better side by every measure, and I expect them to win. But they concede around one goal per game on average, and seven of their 12 league goals against have come away from home, so a clean sheet is far from guaranteed.
Sønderjyske vs FC København: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not backing Sønderjyske to get a result. I am backing them to score. They have scored in four of six home league games, average 4.4 shots on target, and face an FCK side that has kept only two away clean sheets and has Europe on Thursday.
The strongest argument against it is the Horsens defeat and the gap in quality: if FCK score early and keep the ball, Sønderjyske may spend long spells without it, and they failed to score at home against Viborg and Nordsjælland. FCK have also named a strong XI rather than rotating for Thursday, which takes away part of my case. I still think Sønderjyske will get at least one, so I am backing Sønderjyske over 0.5 team goals at 1.56 with MyStake, but for 3/10 rather than the 4/10 I started with. I see FCK winning 3-1.