Nine players missing and three games in six days: Sarri’s Atalanta are running on empty
Pre-match update (20:20 CET): The starting XIs are confirmed. Atalanta line up exactly as expected, with Scalvini in the back four and Krstović up front, and Parma leave Diego Carlos and Romero on the bench, starting Delprato in the back three and Lontani up front. Nothing here changes my view.
Pre-match update (20:00 CET): Both squad lists are out and they back up the case for this bet. Atalanta have named only 19 players: Scamacca, Raspadori, Kessié, Kolašinac, Bellanova, Hien and Kossounou are all missing, and the club’s medical update confirms Gaetano (adductor strain) and Kristensen (hamstring strain) are still in rehab. Parma travel without Bernabé, but Diego Carlos is in their 26-man squad. My tip, Parma +1.5 (Handicap) at 1.59 with MyStake, and the 3/10 stake stay the same. The odds quoted are from the time of publication; prices may have moved since.
Maurizio Sarri did not hide his frustration with the fixture list on Sunday. Atalanta drew 2-2 in Florence on Thursday, lost Thomas Kristensen after 87 seconds and saw Gianluca Gaetano injured as well, and now host Parma before a Conference League game against Kairat on Thursday. Parma are 18th with five goals all season, but Alberto Gilardino has just picked up his first point in charge, and his opponents are short of bodies in almost every area of the pitch.
“Il calendario non ci aiuta.” (“The fixture list isn’t helping us.”) – Maurizio Sarri, quoted by TuttoAtalanta
Predicted lineups: Atalanta vs Parma
The line-ups are now confirmed. Sarri has gone with exactly the XI the local press expected: Giorgio Scalvini stays in the back four after filling in for Kristensen in Florence, Nikola Krstović, with six league goals, leads the line because Gianluca Scamacca and Giacomo Raspadori are both injured, and Rowe gets the nod over Elmas on the left. Atalanta’s bench is thin, with Samardžić, Elmas and Sulemana the only senior attacking options. Parma are without Adrián Bernabé, who picked up a muscle problem in training on Saturday. Gilardino keeps his back three but leaves Diego Carlos on the bench, with Delprato moving into the defence, and he starts Simone Lontani alongside Touré, so David Romero drops to the bench.
Atalanta Team News & Preview
The injury list is the story. BergamoNews counted nine absentees on Monday, and two of them, Kristensen and Gaetano, are new after Thursday. Atalanta are also without both senior strikers apart from Krstović, plus Franck Kessié, Raoul Bellanova and Sead Kolašinac, while Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou are long-term absentees. That leaves Sarri with very few options from the bench in the third game of a six-day spell.
Results have been poor even with a fuller squad. Atalanta are 13th, have one clean sheet in nine league games and conceded four at home to Frosinone a week ago. They have not won at home in the league since the 12 October win over Venezia. Charles De Ketelaere remains their best player and scored in Florence, but this is a team that concedes chances, and that matters for a bet on the margin.
What works for or against Atalanta
- Krstović has six league goals and De Ketelaere is in form.
- Parma have the weakest attack in the division.
- At least nine players are unavailable, two of them new injuries from Thursday.
- One clean sheet in nine league games, and four conceded at home to Frosinone.
- A Conference League game against Kairat follows on Thursday.
Parma Team News & Preview
Parma’s problem is obvious: five goals in nine league games and only 0.82 expected goals per match. Gilardino replaced Carlos Cuesta at the end of September, lost his first three games and then drew 0-0 with Udinese on Wednesday, when Bernabé had a penalty saved and goalkeeper Daffara made several important stops. Sarri said Parma are only in this position because they convert so few of their chances.
Losing Bernabé hurts, because he is one of the few players who can create from midfield. But what Parma need on Monday is not goals so much as resistance. Gilardino has called for a game played with a bit of recklessness in Bergamo, and with a back three and Diego Carlos available again from the bench, their main job will be to keep the score close.
What works for or against Parma
- Only five league goals all season and 0.82 expected goals per game.
- Lost all four away league games so far.
- Kept a clean sheet against Udinese on Wednesday.
- Bernabé is out with a muscle problem.
- Diego Carlos is back from suspension.
Atalanta vs Parma Odds
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Atalanta Form, Stats & Data
Almost two expected goals against per game is the number that stands out, a very high figure for a side with Atalanta’s quality. Atalanta have won three of their five home league games, but they have rarely been in control, which is why only three of their nine league games have been won overall. With a patched-up back four and Scalvini playing out of position, I do not expect them to dominate, even against Parma.
Parma Form, Stats & Data
Parma’s best player by rating is a centre-back, Mariano Troilo, which reflects how their season has gone. They create very little, but they have conceded fewer than two goals per game on average, and two of their heavier defeats came against Inter and Torino rather than a side in Atalanta’s current condition.
Atalanta vs Parma: Prediction & Betting Tip
I would not back Parma to win here: they barely score and have lost every away league game. The question I am asking is whether a tired, injury-hit Atalanta side that has kept one clean sheet all season will win by two clear goals. With nine players out, two new injuries from Thursday and a European game in three days, I expect a narrow game rather than a comfortable home win.
The risk is obvious. Parma lost 3-0 at Inter and 3-0 at home to Torino, and if Krstović scores early, the floodgates could open against a side with this little attacking threat. That is why the stake stays at 3/10, but I am taking Parma +1.5 (Handicap) at 1.59 with MyStake. I can see Atalanta winning 2-1.