Four days after the cup exit, Jaissle gets Everton again
Pre-match update (20:10 CET): The teams are in. Will Osula has shaken off his ankle knock and leads the line, Anthony Elanga makes his first start since his September hamstring injury, and Fabian Schär comes in for Malick Thiaw, with Yoane Wissa and Jacob Murphy on the bench. Everton start Armstrong and Röhl in place of Dibling and Hackney, Branthwaite is back, and Grealish is not in the squad. Osula being fit takes away one of my reasons for this bet, so I am cutting the stake on Under 2.5 Goals from 4/10 to 3/10. The rest of the case still stands. The 2.06 with MyStake is the price from publication at 10:41 CET and may have moved since. The Both Teams to Score – No alternative stays at 2/10.
Newcastle have barely had time to digest Thursday’s 3-1 defeat at Everton in the Carabao Cup before the same opponents arrive at St James‘ Park. Matthias Jaissle picked something close to his strongest side that night and still went out, and the noise around his first season in charge has not gone away. Everton travel in better spirits, but their league form tells a different story: no goals in their last two league games, defeats by Chelsea and Arsenal, and only one win from their last five.
“It’s a different ball game going to St James‘ Park on a Monday evening.” – David Moyes after the cup win, quoted by ReadEverton
Predicted lineups: Newcastle vs Everton
Both line-ups are now confirmed; the clubs did not announce formations, so the shapes below are my reading of the team sheets. Will Osula has recovered from the ankle he twisted in the cup tie and starts up front, with Yoane Wissa on the bench. Anthony Elanga and Joelinton come in for Jacob Murphy and Jacob Ramsey, and Fabian Schär partners Dan Burn. Lewis Miley and Matías Fernández-Pardo are not in the squad, while Tino Livramento and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen are still out. Everton welcome back Jarrad Branthwaite after his concussion, Armstrong and Röhl replace Dibling and Hackney, and Jack Grealish is not in the matchday squad.
Newcastle Team News & Preview
The problem for Newcastle this season has been at the top end of the pitch. They average just 3.4 shots on target per league game and 1.14 expected goals, which is why only one of their four home league games has been won. Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga and Joe Willock are the joint top scorers with two league goals each, a sign of how little the forwards have contributed since the summer departures of Anthony Gordon, Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali.
Defensively they are not much better: 14 goals conceded in eight games, and four conceded at both Leeds and Coventry. The 2-0 win at Crystal Palace a week ago was their best away display, but it was followed by a cup exit in which Everton scored three times. Jaissle said afterwards that his side „need to be more clinical“, and Osula and Elanga starting gives them more pace up front. I still need to see Newcastle turn possession into clear chances before I expect more than one goal from them.
What works for or against Newcastle
- Only 3.4 shots on target per league game.
- Lost 3-1 to Everton in the Carabao Cup on Thursday.
- Won 2-0 at Crystal Palace in their last league game.
- Livramento is still out and Miley misses out again.
Everton Team News & Preview
Thursday’s win does not change Everton’s league profile much. They went unbeaten through their first six league games, but most of those were tight: six of eight have ended with two goals or fewer, they have three clean sheets, and James Tarkowski is their highest-rated player. Away from home they have drawn three of four, scoring three goals in total.
Thierno Barry has seven goals in all competitions and scored again in the cup, but only three of them have come in the league. Moyes‘ sides are organised away from home, and his remark about St James‘ Park on a Monday night suggests he knows this will be a different game from Thursday. With Branthwaite back alongside Tarkowski, I expect Everton to sit deeper than they did at home.
What works for or against Everton
- Three away draws and only one defeat in four league games on the road.
- Branthwaite is expected back alongside Tarkowski.
- No league goals in their last two games.
- Grealish is not in the matchday squad.
Newcastle vs Everton Odds
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Newcastle Form, Stats & Data
The gap between Newcastle’s expected goals (1.14) and expected goals against (1.71) explains their position. Their total of 12 league goals is above what the chances suggest, so if anything their attacking numbers flatter them. Lewis Hall, a full-back, is the highest-rated player, which says a lot about the lack of a reliable goal threat.
Everton Form, Stats & Data
Seventeen goals in eight league games, at both ends combined, is the figure that matters here. Everton score once per game and concede just over once, and Tarkowski’s FotMob rating of 7.59 shows how much of their season has been built on defending. They are not a side that opens games up away from home.
Newcastle vs Everton: Prediction & Betting Tip
Thursday’s 3-1 will make some people expect goals again, but I think the league numbers are a better guide. Newcastle are averaging 3.4 shots on target per league game. Osula has recovered to start, which helps them, but one returning striker does not change that pattern on its own. Everton have not scored in the league for two games, have scored only three times away from home, and six of their eight league games have finished under three goals.
Newcastle’s defence is the danger. They have conceded four goals twice this season and gave up three in the cup, so an early goal could open this up. I still trust the league profile of both sides more than one cup tie, and I am backing Under 2.5 Goals at 2.06 with MyStake for 3/10, down from 4/10 now that Osula is fit to start. I see it ending 1-1.