Five days after the cup, Hamburg return to Frankfurt with the league’s bluntest attack and a long injury list
Pre-match update (16:30 CET): Sebastiaan Bornauw has been ruled out with the head and jaw problems from his collision with Noah Atubolu in the cup, and Jordan Torunarigha is expected to take his place in the back three. That costs Hamburg their defensive leader but takes nothing away from an attack that was already the bluntest in the league, so my bet stays Hamburg under 1.5 team goals at 1.45 with Winz (3/10). The official line-ups were not out at the time of writing. The odds quoted are from publication on 31 October; prices may have moved since.
Eintracht Frankfurt knocked Hamburg out of the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday, winning 3-1 at the Volksparkstadion with a rotated side after a goalless first half. Five days later the two meet again in the league, and Merlin Polzin’s squad has thinned out further. Hamburg are 11th with nine points, all of them from a run of three straight wins earlier in the autumn, but they have scored only six league goals and lost 1-0 at Paderborn in their last league game. Frankfurt are 14th and have conceded 17 times in seven games, but Adi Hütter believes his side are „developing in the right direction“.
“Frankfurt hat mit Blick auf die Einzelspieler eine unfassbare Qualität.” (“When you look at the individual players, Frankfurt have incredible quality.”) – Hamburg coach Merlin Polzin
Predicted lineups: Frankfurt vs Hamburg
Frankfurt have Lilian Brassier back after the knee problem that kept him out of the cup tie, and only Jessic Ngankam is missing. Hamburg’s list is much longer: Mario Vušković is suspended, and Yussuf Poulsen, Fábio Vieira, Nicolás Capaldo, Nicolai Remberg and Bilal Nadir are all out, according to the club. Sebastiaan Bornauw has now been ruled out with head and jaw problems from the cup tie, so Jordan Torunarigha, back in the squad, is expected to come into the back three. Albert Grønbæk is ready to start. Both line-ups follow bundesliga.com’s predicted XIs, with Torunarigha in for Bornauw as the Hamburger Abendblatt expects.
Eintracht Frankfurt Team News & Preview
Frankfurt’s defence is the reason they are in the bottom half. They have conceded 17 league goals, including six at Leipzig, and only four teams have a worse expected goals against figure than their 2.07 per game. At the other end, Younes Ebnoutalib has five league goals and is their highest-rated player, and Jonathan Burkardt has three.
The cup win showed what Hütter’s squad can do even with changes: Koch, Burkardt and Ebnoutalib scored after the break. With almost a full-strength side available and Brassier back alongside Koch, Frankfurt should have the ball for long spells against an opponent that averages the lowest possession in the league.
What works for or against Frankfurt
- Beat Hamburg 3-1 away in the cup on Tuesday.
- Ebnoutalib has five league goals.
- Brassier returns and only Ngankam is missing.
- 17 goals conceded in seven league games.
Hamburger SV Team News & Preview
Hamburg’s attack is the weakest in the Bundesliga by the underlying numbers. They have the lowest expected goals total in the league, 0.99 per game, average 3.3 shots on target and keep only 39.2 per cent of the ball, the lowest share in the division. They have scored more than once in only two of their seven league games, and three of their six goals came after the 83rd minute.
The absences make that harder still. Poulsen has been their highest-rated player, Fábio Vieira is another creative option that Polzin cannot call on, and losing Vušković weakens the back three as well. Hamburg did create chances in the cup tie, which sportschau described as Frankfurt punishing Hamburg’s wastefulness, but Moffi’s late goal was their only reward.
What works for or against Hamburg
- Lowest expected goals in the Bundesliga, 0.99 per game.
- Failed to score in three of four away league games.
- Poulsen, Fábio Vieira and Vušković are missing.
- Created several chances in the cup tie on Tuesday.
Frankfurt vs Hamburg Odds
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Frankfurt Form, Stats & Data
Frankfurt create more than they score, 1.71 expected goals per game against 1.43 actual, and their defensive numbers are poor. The goals-against column is the reason I am not backing the home win as my main bet; the alternative below takes that view at a smaller stake.
Hamburg Form, Stats & Data
Hamburg’s goals match their chances almost exactly, so there is no sign of bad luck in the attacking numbers. Their highest-rated player and their joint-top scorer, Poulsen, misses this game, which leaves an already blunt attack with even fewer options.
Frankfurt vs Hamburg: Prediction & Betting Tip
This bet is about Hamburg’s attack, not Frankfurt’s defence. The visitors have the lowest expected goals in the league, have scored more than once in only two of seven league games and have failed to score in three of four away trips. They are now without Poulsen, Fábio Vieira and Vušković, five days after a cup defeat in which they again could not turn chances into goals.
The strongest argument against the bet is Frankfurt’s defence, which has conceded 17 goals in seven games and 2.07 expected goals per game. If Hamburg get on the counter, two goals are possible. I still back Hamburger SV under 1.5 team goals at 1.45 with Winz with a 3/10 stake, and my prediction is a 2-1 home win.