Kramarić is back in form, Leverkusen arrive rested – and Sinsheim rarely sees a quiet game
A week ago, Christian Ilzer was under real pressure. Hoffenheim had lost six games in a row before winning 2-1 at Gladbach, and on Thursday they followed that with a 3-0 win over Lyon, their first Europa League points of the season. Andrej Kramarić scored and set up a goal and was named man of the match by kicker. Leverkusen are the form team in Germany, with six straight wins in all competitions. Carles Martínez also rested Flekken, Tapsoba, Miguel Gutiérrez, Diaby and Maza for the 2-0 win in Crete. Hoffenheim’s league games have produced plenty of goals: every one of their six has had at least three.
„Bambasé Conté mussten wir gegen Lyon etwas früher herausnehmen, da müssen wir abwarten. Das gilt aber auch für den Rest.“ – Christian Ilzer (“We had to take Bambasé Conté off a bit early against Lyon, so we have to wait and see. That also applies to the rest.”)
Predicted lineups: Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen
The main doubt for Hoffenheim is Bambasé Conté. Their highest-rated league player had to come off against Lyon, and the club said it was not only to manage his workload. If he misses out, Alexander Prass is the obvious candidate to come in. Albian Hajdari (plantar fascia), Nathan De Cat (meniscus surgery) and Patrick Wimmer (thigh) are out. Leverkusen will bring back the players they rested on Thursday, and Robert Andrich is expected to return to the squad after missing the Crete trip for the birth of his third child. Christian Kofane and Martin Terrier are both out with thigh injuries, but neither has been a regular starter in the league. The line-ups follow kicker’s predictions, with Prass in for the doubtful Conté.
Hoffenheim Team News & Preview
Hoffenheim want to press high and attack, and in the league it has cut both ways. They have scored in every game and conceded in every game, losing 3-2 at Köln, 3-2 at home to Dortmund and 3-2 at home to HSV. Their expected goals against are lower than their actual goals conceded, but there have been no clean sheets at all. Against Lyon they pressed aggressively, and kicker described the win as fully deserved.
Kramarić’s return to form is the big positive. He scored and set up Hložek’s goal, and the forward line now has several threats: Adam Daghim, Adam Hložek and Conté have two league goals each. If Conté misses out, though, Hoffenheim lose their best-rated player, and they played an intense pressing game with a near-first-choice side on Thursday, while Leverkusen rotated.
What works for or against Hoffenheim
- Two wins in a row after six straight defeats.
- Won both meetings with Leverkusen last season.
- Conté, their top-rated player, is a doubt.
- No clean sheet in six league games.
Leverkusen Team News & Preview
Martínez rotated heavily in Crete, and Leverkusen still won comfortably. kicker had them at 3.4 expected goals to OFI’s 0.24, with Jonas Hofmann scoring twice. That was their third Europa League win without conceding. In the Bundesliga they have been more open. They lost 3-2 at Elversberg, drew 2-2 at Augsburg and won 4-3 at Mainz, while their only league clean sheets came in the 4-0 against Union and the 2-0 against Leipzig.
Patrik Schick is the player who makes this side work. He has six league goals and is their highest-rated player. Leverkusen are averaging more than six shots on target and 2.27 expected goals per league game. With Flekken, Tapsoba, Miguel and Maza rested on Thursday, they should arrive fresher than Hoffenheim.
What works for or against Leverkusen
- Six straight wins in all competitions.
- Several key players were rested in Crete.
- Schick has six league goals.
- Lost both meetings with Hoffenheim last season.
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen Odds
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Hoffenheim vs. Leverkusen Form Guide
Hoffenheim Form, Stats & Data
Hoffenheim are not as bad as 13th place suggests. They create 1.77 expected goals per game and average 57% possession. The issue is that they have conceded 2.33 goals per game, more than their chances against would suggest. That combination is why their games have been so open.
Leverkusen Form, Stats & Data
Leverkusen have the best attack in this fixture by some distance: 2.67 goals and 6.2 shots on target per game. They still allow 1.35 expected goals per game, though, which is enough for a Hoffenheim side that has scored in every league game to get chances.
Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen: Prediction & Betting Tip
Everything I have seen points to goals. All six of Hoffenheim’s league games have had at least three, and so have five of Leverkusen’s six. Both sides like to have the ball and press high. Leverkusen’s attack is the best in this fixture, while Hoffenheim score regularly but have not kept a single league clean sheet. Five of the last six meetings have also gone over 2.5 goals.
What could keep the score down is fatigue on Hoffenheim’s side. They played a high-intensity game on Thursday and might lose Conté. If Leverkusen go ahead early and control possession, the game could slow down. But Hoffenheim do not have a defensive style to fall back on, and Leverkusen have conceded in four of their six league games. I am taking Over 2.5 Goals at 1.37 with Winz and see Leverkusen winning 3-2.