Cup winners, Conference League hopefuls – and eight league games without a win
Mjällby’s season has gone in two very different directions. They won the cup final against Hammarby in May and are unbeaten in the Conference League after Thursday’s late 1-1 in Tbilisi. In the Allsvenskan, though, the champions of 2025 are 12th, winless in eight games and only three points above the play-off place. Hammarby arrive third, with only 21 goals conceded and back-to-back 1-0 away wins.
„Vi ska vara gamla Mjällby, tuffa att möta, som vi strävar efter.“ – Jacob Bergström (“We need to be the old Mjällby, tough to play against, which is what we are aiming for.”)
Predicted lineups: Mjällby vs Hammarby
Mjällby flew back from Georgia overnight into Saturday, so their recovery window is short. Ludvig Tidstrand is suspended, and Villum Dalsgaard and Timo Stavitski are injured, but none of them has been a regular starter. Jacob Bergström, the top scorer with nine league goals, starts almost every game and leads the line again. Hammarby have had a full week off. Oliver Hagen pulled out of training on Thursday with a thigh problem, according to Bollsvenskan, but he has mostly come off the bench this season. Henrik Rydström has his regular front three of Montader Madjed, Paulos Abraham and Victor Lind available. The line-ups are based on the latest league line-ups.
Mjällby Team News & Preview
Strandvallen has not been a fortress this year. Mjällby have won only three of their 12 home league games and have lost seven, including 3-0 to GAIS, 4-1 to IFK Göteborg and 2-0 to Djurgården in the last two months. Their expected goals against of 1.90 per game show how often they are opened up, and they have conceded 40 league goals.
Europe and the cup have kept the season alive. They are unbeaten in the Conference League, and Tom Pettersson’s 89th-minute equaliser in Tbilisi came after a Bergström header. The league table is the worry, though: with Degerfors three points behind in the play-off spot, Mjällby need points, and they have to find them on short rest.
What works for or against Mjällby
- Beat Hammarby 2-1 in the cup final in May.
- Bergström has nine league goals.
- Winless in eight league games.
- Only got back from Tbilisi on Saturday night.
Hammarby Team News & Preview
Hammarby’s title chances are slim, nine points behind leaders Sirius with six games to play, but they are still fighting Djurgården for second. Rydström’s side dominate the ball, with 61.7% average possession, and create 2.27 expected goals per game. Paulos Abraham has 14 league goals, while Victor Lind has scored nine, set up 11 and is their highest-rated player.
The 1-0 home defeat to Djurgården was a setback, but they responded with a 1-0 win at Halmstad. They have also kept ten clean sheets and conceded only 21 league goals. Their record in this fixture is mixed, though: they won the league meeting 3-0 in April but lost the cup final in May.
What works for or against Hammarby
- Only 21 league goals conceded and ten clean sheets.
- Lind has nine goals and 11 assists.
- A full week of rest.
- Lost the cup final to Mjällby in May.
Mjällby vs Hammarby Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Mjällby vs. Hammarby Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Mjällby vs. Hammarby Form Guide
Mjällby Form, Stats & Data
Nearly two expected goals against per game is the key figure. Mjällby are giving up far more than they create, and with heavy legs after Thursday, it is hard to see that improving against a Hammarby side that creates more than two expected goals per game.
Hammarby Form, Stats & Data
Hammarby have the strongest numbers in this fixture across the board. Almost eight shots on target per game is a huge figure, and they allow only about one expected goal per match. The recent wins have been narrow, but the control has been there.
Mjällby vs Hammarby: Prediction & Betting Tip
Hammarby are the better side, and the schedule works in their favour. They have had a full week to prepare, while Mjällby have played three days earlier in Georgia and only got home on Saturday night. Mjällby have not won in eight league games and have lost seven of their 12 home matches. Hammarby create more than twice as much as they concede.
Mjällby beat Hammarby in the cup final, and their European run shows they can still raise their game for big occasions. Relegation pressure can also produce a reaction. Hammarby’s last two wins were both 1-0, so this may not be comfortable. But the gap in quality and freshness is too big for me to look elsewhere. I am backing Hammarby to win at 1.45 with Winz and expect a 2-0 away win.