Two new managers, one clean sheet each – Sage and Jaissle need a result at Selhurst
Both clubs changed manager in the summer, and the Premier League table shows neither change has worked yet. Pierre Sage was warned after the 5-0 defeat at Brighton that things must improve quickly, and Palace have been back from Istanbul for only three days after a 2-2 draw with Beşiktaş. Matthias Jaissle’s Newcastle had a free week, but they have lost their last two league games, 4-1 at Coventry and 1-0 at home to Aston Villa. Defending has been the problem for both sides: Palace have conceded 17 goals and Newcastle 14 in seven league games.
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United have each kept just one clean sheet in their seven Premier League games this season.
Predicted lineups: Palace vs Newcastle
Palace come out of the Beşiktaş trip without Jørgen Strand Larsen, who came off the bench in Turkey and limped off 20 minutes later. That is a fresh blow, because he had started five of their seven league games. Quinten Timber (thigh), Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf) and Chadi Riad (knee) are also out. Dean Henderson trained this week but sat out the Europa League game, so Walter Benítez is expected to stay in goal. Newcastle get Anthony Elanga back after a month out. He is their joint top scorer in the league but may have to settle for a place on the bench. Jacob Ramsey could also return, although Jaissle wants to take it slowly with him. Tino Livramento is still not fit. These are predicted line-ups.
Palace Team News & Preview
Under Oliver Glasner, Palace’s strength was a compact 3-4-2-1 that defended deep and countered. Sage’s side press higher and push more men forward, and so far the defence has paid for it. Palace have conceded 2.4 goals per league game, and their expected goals against of 2.1 per match shows they are giving away plenty of good chances. Even their two wins were open games: 3-2 at Fulham and 3-1 against Nottingham Forest. The 5-0 at Brighton was the worst result yet, and the Guardian reports that chairman Steve Parish is still not convinced by his manager.
There were some encouraging signs in Istanbul. With Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada back together in midfield, Palace looked more solid, and Jean-Philippe Mateta scored on his first start since the opening day. Kamada has been their best player by FotMob rating and leads the team with three assists. Palace have also not lost at home to Newcastle since November 2020.
What works for or against Palace
- Unbeaten at home against Newcastle since November 2020.
- Kamada has three league assists and is their top-rated player.
- Strand Larsen joins a growing injury list after Istanbul.
- 2.4 goals conceded per league game.
Newcastle Team News & Preview
Newcastle sold Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimarães in the summer, and the young squad has struggled to adjust to Jaissle’s vertical, high-pressing game. The Guardian’s analysis points to a 4-2-3-1 that leaves Nico González overrun at the base of midfield and exposes Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman at centre-back. Newcastle have conceded 14 goals in seven league games, including four at Leeds and four at Coventry.
Going forward they have the pace to hurt a Palace back line that has been pulled apart regularly. Yoane Wissa has started every league game, Harvey Barnes has two assists, and Elanga’s return gives Jaissle a match-winner off the bench. Lewis Hall has been their best-rated player. Newcastle have not played since last Saturday, so they should be much fresher than a Palace side who were in Istanbul on Thursday night.
What works for or against Newcastle
- A full week to prepare, while Palace were in Istanbul on Thursday.
- Elanga is back in the squad after a month out.
- Two league defeats in a row, including 4-1 at Coventry.
- Only one league clean sheet all season.
Palace vs Newcastle Odds
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C. Palace vs. Newcastle Stats Comparison
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C. Palace vs. Newcastle Form Guide
C. Palace Form, Stats & Data
The expected goals against figure matters most here. Palace are allowing more than two expected goals per game, so this is a structural problem in Sage’s system, not bad luck. Their top league scorer is a left wing-back with two goals, and they have now lost Strand Larsen up front, so they will need goals from all over the pitch.
Newcastle Form, Stats & Data
Newcastle have scored a little more than their chances suggest and conceded a little more as well. With 1.73 expected goals against per game, they rarely shut teams out, and Palace’s front three will get chances against a back line that has struggled with balls in behind.
Palace vs Newcastle: Prediction & Betting Tip
Picking a winner is hard, but the numbers on goals are clear. Ten of these two sides‘ 14 league games have gone over 2.5 goals. Palace allow more than two expected goals per game and Newcastle 1.73, and each has kept only one clean sheet. Both managers favour pressing and attacking football, and both defences have repeatedly been opened up.
The risk is that the pressure on both managers makes this a cagey game. Sage may stick with the Wharton-Kamada pairing that looked tighter in Istanbul, and losing Strand Larsen takes away some of Palace’s attacking threat. Even so, Palace concede too many chances at home, and Newcastle are fresher and quick on the break. I think there will be goals, so I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.52 with Winz and expect Palace and Newcastle to draw 2-2.