Fifteen unbeaten, one win from the playoffs – but Philadelphia lose Cavan Sullivan
Philadelphia’s turnaround under interim manager Ryan Richter has been remarkable. They were bottom of the Eastern Conference with seven points after 15 games; since Richter took over they have taken 39 points from a possible 45, and a win over New England on Saturday night would clinch a playoff place. The Revolution have already qualified and are third on 52 points, with five wins from their last seven games. The bad news for the Union is that Cavan Sullivan, the 17-year-old who leads the MLS 22 Under 22 list, has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Philadelphia have scored in every league game since the start of May and have 27 goals in their last eight matches.
Predicted lineups: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
The Inquirer reports that Sullivan took a knock in last weekend’s 2-2 draw with Charlotte. Richter expected him to be fine on Thursday, but MLS’s availability report on Friday listed him as out. Sullivan has started 20 league games and has seven goals and 14 assists, by the club’s count. Defensive midfielder Jesús Bueno is also out with a hamstring injury. Quinn Sullivan, Cavan’s brother, has started in midfield before and is the likeliest replacement. New England are without Alhassan Yusuf, who has started 21 league games, and defender Mamadou Fofana. Philadelphia’s line-up is projected from their last league XI with Quinn Sullivan in; New England’s is their last league XI.
Philadelphia Union Team News & Preview
The Union’s run has been built on goals. They have 61 in the league, third-most in the East, and Milan Iloski has 19 of them after scoring in five straight games. Bruno Damiani has 12 and has just earned his first Uruguay call-up. Philadelphia create almost two expected goals per game, the highest figure in this fixture by some way.
The defence is less convincing. Philadelphia have kept only six clean sheets and concede 1.6 goals per game, and they shipped two at home to Charlotte last weekend. Without Sullivan, they also lose the player who links midfield and attack, so the chances may be a little harder to come by.
What works for or against Philadelphia Union
- Unbeaten in 15 league games.
- Iloski has scored in five straight games.
- Only six clean sheets all season.
- Cavan Sullivan is ruled out.
New England Revolution Team News & Preview
Marko Mitrović’s first season has gone well. New England have conceded 41 goals, the second-fewest in the East, and Matt Turner kept a clean sheet with six saves in last week’s 1-0 win over Chicago. Carles Gil is having one of his best seasons, with 12 goals and 11 assists by the club’s count, and he scored an 87th-minute winner when these sides met at Gillette Stadium in May.
Away from home the Revs are less reliable – six wins, two draws and seven defeats – but they usually score: they have found the net in 12 of their 15 road games. Gil, Dor Turgeman and Peyton Miller give them three players with at least seven league goals.
What works for or against New England Revolution
- Scored in 12 of 15 away league games.
- Gil has 12 goals and 11 assists.
- Seven defeats in 15 away league games.
- Alhassan Yusuf is injured.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Odds
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Philadelphia Union vs. New England Form Guide
Philadelphia Union Form, Stats & Data
Nearly two expected goals per game makes the Union one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. They also allow 1.4 expected goals per game, which is why their matches are so open.
New England Form, Stats & Data
New England’s goals-against record is better than their underlying numbers: they allow 1.43 expected goals per game, much the same as Philadelphia. Turner has done a lot of work, and that is hard to rely on against an attack like the Union’s.
Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution: Prediction & Betting Tip
Philadelphia score in every game and New England score in most of their away games. Both sides allow around 1.4 expected goals per game, and both have attackers in form – Iloski for the Union, Gil for the Revolution. Philadelphia’s six clean sheets in 30 games are another reason I expect goals at both ends.
The strongest argument against is Sullivan’s absence, which takes some of the creativity out of Philadelphia’s attack, along with Turner’s form in the New England goal. If the Union struggle to break through, a 1-0 either way is possible. But this has the look of an open game between two sides with plenty to play for. I am backing Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.52 with Winz and see a 2-1 home win.