Five defeats in a row and Runjaić’s job on the line – can Milan move on from Bournemouth?
Udinese are in deep trouble. They have lost five straight league games, the latest a 3-0 home defeat by Lecce, and Italian media say Kosta Runjaić is fighting for his job. Players also had a tense meeting with supporters this week. Milan have their own questions after a 3-0 Europa League defeat at Bournemouth on Thursday, after which Ruben Amorim said: „Non c’era partita dopo 20 minuti“ („After 20 minutes, there was no game“). In Serie A, though, Amorim’s side have not lost yet.
Udinese have conceded 13 goals during their five-game losing run in Serie A.
Predicted lineups: Udinese vs Milan
Udinese have problems at the back. David Alaba has a calf injury, and Oumar Solet, who has started five of seven league games, has not trained properly this week. Messaggero Veneto reports that if he does not make it, Christian Kabasele will play in the middle of the back three. Nicolò Zaniolo is fit again after a month out but is expected to start on the bench. For Milan, the good news is that Gonçalo Ramos has trained normally after his calf scare and should lead the line. Samuel Chukwueze is out after starting six league games, so Hutchinson or Yunus Musah is expected to replace him on the right. Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are also injured. The line-ups combine the predictions of Messaggero Veneto (Udinese) and SOS Fanta (Milan).
Udinese Team News & Preview
The Lecce defeat summed up the problem. Messaggero Veneto counted 11 lost balls from Giorgi Chakvetadze, and Runjaić moved Jurgen Ekkelenkamp out of the central-left role where he had scored three goals in the first six rounds. Udinese have conceded 2.29 goals per game, and their expected goals against of 2.19 per game shows those goals are not down to bad luck. At home they have one point from four games: 1-1 with Como, then defeats against Lazio, Cagliari and Lecce.
Keinan Davis is still waiting for his first league goal, so the scoring burden falls mainly on Ekkelenkamp. Zaniolo could change things off the bench, but he has had two muscle injuries this season and Runjaić is clearly reluctant to risk him from the start.
What works for or against Udinese
- Won 3-0 at San Siro last April.
- A full week of preparation while Milan were in England.
- Five straight league defeats and 13 goals conceded.
- One point from four home league games.
Milan Team News & Preview
Thursday’s defeat was harsh, but Milan’s league form has been steady. They have four wins and three draws, have conceded just seven goals and average almost 60% possession. Adrien Rabiot has been the key player, with four goals and three assists, and Luka Modrić sets the tempo alongside him. Diego Moreira has added three goals from the left.
Amorim did not hold a press conference before the game, so there has been no official word on how much he will rotate. Most of the regulars are available, and Milan have a good record at Udinese, winning their last three league visits 3-2, 4-0 and 3-0. The danger is the turnaround: Udinese have had a full week to prepare, while Milan are coming back from a damaging Thursday night in England.
What works for or against Milan
- Unbeaten in Serie A this season.
- Rabiot has four goals and three assists.
- Three days after a 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth.
- Chukwueze is out on the right.
Udinese vs Milan Odds
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Udinese vs. AC Milan Form Guide
Udinese Form, Stats & Data
More than two expected goals against per game is the number that matters most. Udinese have not kept a clean sheet in the league, and with Alaba out and Solet not fully fit, the back three is under even more pressure. Their attack is decent, but it depends heavily on Ekkelenkamp.
AC Milan Form, Stats & Data
Milan have scored more than their expected goals and have also defended well, conceding just once per game. Against a side that gives away so many chances, their 4.7 shots on target per game should be enough to create the openings they need.
Udinese vs Milan: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is the best side in the fixture against a team in freefall. Udinese have lost five league games in a row, concede more than two expected goals per game and are without Alaba, with Solet a doubt. The coach is also fighting for his job. Milan are unbeaten in Serie A, have the better squad in every area and have won on their last three league visits to Udinese.
Bournemouth is the reason for caution. A 3-0 defeat in England, the trip home and only three days of rest could leave Milan flat early on. Udinese may also get a lift if this is seen as Runjaić’s last chance. I still think Milan’s league form and Udinese’s defensive problems outweigh that, so I am backing AC Milan to win at 1.63 with Winz and expect a 2-0 away win.