Molde lead the chase for third – and Fredrikstad come without their regular right wing-back
Molde and Tromsø are level on 40 points in the race for third place and a European spot, and Molde go into Sunday evening’s game knowing Tromsø’s result from Stavanger. Sindre Tjelmeland’s side beat Start 6-1 last weekend even without Eirik Hestad and several other regulars. Fredrikstad are eighth and will be without Daniel Eid, who is suspended. They also have a cup tie against Ranheim straight after this game and are travelling directly on to Trøndelag.
Molde have won eight of their 12 home league games this season and scored 30 goals at the Aker Stadion.
Predicted lineups: Molde vs Fredrikstad
Molde have a long injury list. Eirik Hestad, their highest-rated player with eight league goals, is out, as are Sivert Hansen, Halldor Stenevik, Vebjørn Hoff and Mads Kikkenborg. None of them played in the 6-1 win over Start, so Tjelmeland is likely to keep that side. Fredrikstad lose Daniel Eid, who has started 22 of 23 league games at right wing-back, to suspension, and Kennedy Okpaleke and Sigurd Kvile are injured. Max Nilsson, who has started six of their last eight league games, is one option to come in. Molde’s line-up is their last league XI; Fredrikstad’s is projected from their last league line-up, with Nilsson in for Eid.
Molde Team News & Preview
Molde have scored 52 league goals, and they average almost 60% possession. Emil Breivik has nine goals and nine assists, and Kristian Hemmingsen Lonebu has eight goals, so the attack does not depend on Hestad alone.
The defence is less reliable. Molde have kept only four clean sheets and concede 1.5 goals per game, and they lost at home to Lillestrøm, Brann and Aalesund this season. Fredrikstad also beat them 2-1 at the Aker Stadion last season, so Tjelmeland will not need reminding that this fixture can be awkward.
What works for or against Molde
- Eight wins in 12 home league games.
- Breivik has nine goals and nine assists.
- Hestad and several other regulars are injured.
- Only four clean sheets all season.
Fredrikstad Team News & Preview
Casper Røjkjær’s side are comfortably in mid-table but have been poor away from home: three wins, two draws and seven defeats, including 4-0 losses at Tromsø and Rosenborg. They average only 1.2 goals per game, and their expected goals against of 1.86 per game is a high figure.
Losing Eid hurts. He has started all but one league game and has three assists from right wing-back. With a cup tie against Ranheim to follow, Fredrikstad’s priorities could also shift. They did push Viking hard last weekend, though, losing only 3-2 in Stavanger.
What works for or against Fredrikstad
- Won 2-1 at Molde last season.
- Pushed Viking close in a 3-2 defeat last weekend.
- Seven defeats in 12 away league games.
- Eid is suspended.
Molde vs Fredrikstad Odds
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Molde vs. Fredrikstad Form Guide
Molde Form, Stats & Data
Molde create more than two expected goals per game and get over six shots on target, so their attack should still function without Hestad. The weakness is the number of chances they allow, which is why Fredrikstad will probably get openings too.
Fredrikstad Form, Stats & Data
No Fredrikstad player has more than three league goals, and 3.9 shots on target per game is modest. Allowing nearly 1.9 expected goals per match against an attack like Molde’s is a big problem.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: Prediction & Betting Tip
Molde have a lot to play for, and the numbers point their way. They create far more chances than Fredrikstad, have won eight of 12 at home and showed against Start that they can still score heavily without Hestad. Fredrikstad’s away record is poor, they lose Eid and their cup tie could be on their minds.
Molde’s injury list and their defensive record are why I am keeping the stake moderate. They have lost three home games, and Fredrikstad won 2-1 here last season. Still, I expect Molde’s attack to make the difference. I am backing Molde to win at 1.42 with Winz and see a 3-1 home win.