Out of the Libertadores, into a relegation battle away from home – Fluminense visit the bottom side
Fluminense’s continental run ended on Thursday, when Palmeiras knocked them out of the Libertadores semi-final on penalties after Nonato’s miss. Marcão’s side now have one target left: a direct place in next year’s group stage. They are fifth with 51 points. Chapecoense are bottom on 18, eight points behind Remo in 19th with a game in hand, and they have lost four of their last five league matches.
Ten of Chapecoense’s 14 home league games this season have produced at least three goals.
Predicted lineups: Chapecoense vs Fluminense
Rafael Lacerda gets top scorer Marcinho back from suspension, but loses centre-back Kauan Faria to a third yellow card, so João Paulo is expected to partner Eduardo Doma. Fluminense have three confirmed absences in their first-choice side: centre-back Julián Millán and midfielder Martinelli are injured – Martinelli needs knee surgery and is out for the season – and Jefferson Savarino is suspended. Thiago Silva is a doubt after the semi-final on Palmeiras‘ artificial pitch; if he does not start, Ignácio and Igor Rabello form the centre-back pairing. Both line-ups follow the predicted XIs from Terra and ge.
Chapecoense Team News & Preview
Chapecoense’s problem is at the back. They have conceded 62 goals in 30 league games, more than two per game, and have kept only two clean sheets. Their last home game ended in a 4-1 defeat to Athletico, and they also lost 4-0 at Vitória two weeks ago.
They are not toothless at the Arena Condá, though. Chape have scored in 11 of their 14 home league games, including 3-3 draws with Coritiba and Bahia and a 4-2 win over Santos. With Marcinho back and Giovanni Augusto supplying the chances, they can trouble a Fluminense defence missing Millán and possibly Thiago Silva.
What works for or against Chapecoense
- Scored in 11 of 14 home league games.
- Top scorer Marcinho returns from suspension.
- 62 goals conceded and only two clean sheets.
- Kauan Faria is suspended.
Fluminense Team News & Preview
Fluminense like the ball – they average 58% possession, the most in this fixture by a distance – and they create plenty, with 5.6 shots on target per game. Hulk and Kevin Serna lead the line, with Ganso and Luciano Acosta competing to provide the creativity.
Their away form is the concern. Fluminense have won only three of their 15 league games on the road, and they lost 2-1 at home to Santos last weekend before Thursday’s painful exit. With Savarino and Martinelli out and Thiago Silva struggling, Marcão has to rebuild the spine of the side. This feels like a game where Fluminense will have to attack, and that leaves space for Chape.
What works for or against Fluminense
- 5.6 shots on target per league game.
- 58% average possession.
- Only three wins in 15 away league games.
- Savarino, Martinelli and Millán are missing.
Chapecoense vs Fluminense Odds
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Chapecoense vs. Fluminense Stats Comparison
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Chapecoense vs. Fluminense Form Guide
Chapecoense Form, Stats & Data
Chape allow 1.75 expected goals per game and concede even more than that, so their games rarely stay tight. Their attack is limited, but it is enough to keep games open at home.
Fluminense Form, Stats & Data
Fluminense create almost 1.5 expected goals per game and keep the ball well. They also concede more than you would expect from a top-five side, with only six clean sheets in 31 games.
Chapecoense vs Fluminense: Prediction & Betting Tip
I do not trust Fluminense enough to back them to win: three away wins all season, key players missing and a heavy emotional blow on Thursday. What I do trust is the pattern of Chapecoense’s home games. Ten of 14 have gone over 2.5 goals, Chape concede more than two per game, and they usually find the net themselves at the Arena Condá.
The risk is a flat Fluminense side that keeps the ball without much intent, and a Chape team that sits deep to protect a point. Fluminense’s away games have been tighter than their home ones. Still, a reshuffled Fluminense defence against a home side that keeps scoring and conceding points to goals at both ends. I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.81 with Winz and see a 2-2 draw.