A straight fight for a Libertadores place – and Neymar’s Santos rarely keep it tight
Seventh against eighth, with a place in next year’s Libertadores at stake. Bahia are seventh on 49 points, four ahead of Santos, and come to the Vila Belmiro after a 3-0 home defeat to Flamengo. Cuca’s Santos have won five of their last seven league games, including 2-1 at Fluminense last weekend, with Neymar, Philippe Coutinho, Éverton and Gabriel Barbosa all starting. Rogério Ceni has to do without two suspended regulars.
Both teams have scored in each of Santos‘ last seven league games – and in ten of their 15 home games this season.
Predicted lineups: Santos vs Bahia
Santos are expected to make one change. Centre-back Lucas Veríssimo has a thigh injury, so 19-year-old João Alencar is set to start, according to ge. Gonzalo Escobar, Santos‘ highest-rated player on FotMob, is out along with Willian Arão and Arthur, all with muscle problems, and goalkeeper Gabriel Brazão is a longer-term absentee. Cuca is expected to keep his attacking quartet. Bahia are without right-back Román Gómez and midfielder Jean Lucas, both suspended, while goalkeeper Léo Vieira is recovering from surgery. Marcos Victor stays at right-back and Erick returns in midfield. Both line-ups follow ge’s predicted XIs.
Santos Team News & Preview
Santos have plenty of attacking quality. Gabriel Barbosa has 15 league goals, Neymar has eight, and with Coutinho and Éverton alongside them, Cuca’s side have scored in every one of their last seven league games. The problem is at the other end: 46 goals conceded in 31 games, and at least one goal conceded in each of those last seven matches.
Losing Veríssimo makes that worse. A 19-year-old centre-back alongside Luan Peres, with Escobar missing at left-back, is not the most solid base against a Bahia side that likes the ball. Santos have scored in 13 of their 15 home league games, but they have kept only six clean sheets all season.
What works for or against Santos
- Five wins in their last seven league games.
- Gabriel Barbosa has 15 league goals.
- 46 goals conceded and only six clean sheets.
- Veríssimo and Escobar are out in defence.
Bahia Team News & Preview
Bahia average 54% possession and create 1.56 expected goals per game, the best figure in this fixture. Luciano Juba is their top scorer with ten league goals from left-back, and Erick Pulga and Alejo Véliz lead the attack. They have scored in 12 of their 15 away league games and been involved in plenty of open games on the road, including 3-3 at Chapecoense and 3-2 at Bragantino.
The suspensions hurt. Jean Lucas is a key part of the midfield, and without Román Gómez, Ceni has to play centre-back Marcos Victor out of position at right-back. After the 3-0 defeat to Flamengo, Bahia also need a response.
What works for or against Bahia
- 1.56 expected goals per game.
- Luciano Juba has ten league goals.
- Jean Lucas and Román Gómez are suspended.
- Lost 3-0 at home to Flamengo last weekend.
Santos vs Bahia Odds
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Santos vs. Bahia Form Guide
Santos Form, Stats & Data
Santos‘ numbers are almost level at both ends, which explains why their games so often finish with goals for both sides. They score slightly more than their chances suggest, largely thanks to Gabriel Barbosa.
Bahia Form, Stats & Data
Bahia create a little more than they score and allow 1.4 expected goals per game. Goalkeeper Ronaldo being their highest-rated player says something about how often he has been called into action.
Santos vs Bahia: Prediction & Betting Tip
The result is hard to call between two sides separated by four points, but the goals pattern is clear. Santos have seen both teams score in seven straight league games, their defence is weakened by Veríssimo’s and Escobar’s absences, and Bahia create more chances than Santos do. Neymar, Coutinho and Gabriel Barbosa should ensure Santos score too.
The main risk is the occasion. With a Libertadores place on the line, both coaches may be cautious, and Bahia’s midfield without Jean Lucas could sit deeper than usual. Bahia have also failed to score in three away league games, including at Palmeiras two weeks ago. Still, both defences have shown enough weaknesses that I expect goals at both ends. I am backing Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.54 with Winz and see a 2-1 home win.