A caretaker, a record and a Cambuur side that has found its feet
Willem II sacked John Stegeman on Tuesday, and on Saturday 71-year-old Adrie Koster takes charge of a side that is bottom with two points from nine games. The numbers behind that are grim: 26 Eredivisie matches without a win, which equals the club’s worst run, set in 2010/11. Cambuur arrive in the opposite mood. After losing their first four games they are unbeaten in five, with draws against AZ and Telstar and wins over NEC and PEC Zwolle.
„Dan kan de analyse de prullenbak in.“ – Cambuur coach Johan Plat on hearing that Willem II had changed coach (“Then the analysis can go in the bin.”)
Predicted lineups: Willem II vs Cambuur
Willem II’s injury list is short and mostly made up of fringe players: Justin Hoogma, who has started three league games, Wouter van der Steen, Lachkar and Culum. Koster has had only a few days, so a big tactical overhaul is unlikely. Cambuur have more to think about. Right-back Devid Bouah, a regular this season, is suspended after his red card against AZ, so Rik Mulders is expected to come in. Centre-back Billy van Duijl, Cambuur’s best-rated player, left training early on Friday; Plat said he did not expect a problem, but Jorn Berkhout is ready if needed. Jamal Amofa, who has started five league games, is also out. These are predicted line-ups.
Willem II Team News & Preview
The last two games summed up Stegeman’s final weeks: a 3-1 defeat at Utrecht and a 3-2 loss at Sparta in which Willem II scored twice and still came away with nothing. Across the season they have conceded 26 goals in nine games, almost three a match, and their expected goals against of 2.4 per game says that is not a fluke. At home they have one point from four games: 1-4 against NEC, 2-2 with Heerenveen, 0-3 against Excelsior and 0-1 against Fortuna Sittard.
There is a case for a bounce. The stadium is sold out, a fans‘ anniversary celebration is planned before kick-off, and the players have shown they can score: Devin Haen has three goals and Uriël van Aalst is the best-rated player in the squad. History is less encouraging. According to Voetbal International, only one of the 16 matches Willem II have played immediately after sacking a coach ended in a win.
What works for or against Willem II
- A new voice in Koster and a sold-out stadium.
- Scored twice at Sparta last weekend.
- 26 Eredivisie games without a win.
- One point and ten goals conceded in four home games.
Cambuur Team News & Preview
Cambuur’s season turned in September. After four straight defeats, they drew 2-2 at Telstar, beat NEC 3-0, drew 1-1 at ADO, won 1-0 at PEC Zwolle and then held AZ to 2-2 last weekend, although Bouah’s red card in that game now costs them a regular. The goals are shared around: Ilyès Hamache and Rafik El Arguioui have four each, and Nicolas Binder has three.
The defence is still the weak point, 21 goals against in nine games, though many of those came in the early heavy defeats to Excelsior, Feyenoord and Twente. Away from home they are unbeaten in three. They also have a good record in this fixture: Willem II have not beaten them since December 2015, have failed to win any of the last three meetings in Tilburg, and Cambuur won 1-0 there last season with a last-minute goal.
What works for or against Cambuur
- Unbeaten in five league games.
- Hamache and El Arguioui have four league goals each.
- Bouah is suspended and van Duijl is a slight doubt.
- 21 league goals conceded.
Willem II vs Cambuur Odds
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Willem II Form, Stats & Data
Willem II’s expected goals for are better than their actual return, so they are not quite as toothless as one goal a game suggests. At the back, though, 2.4 expected goals against per match is a huge figure, and only 2.8 shots on target per game leaves them little margin to outscore anyone.
Cambuur Form, Stats & Data
Cambuur’s attacking output is solid for a promoted side, with 4.3 shots on target per game, well ahead of Willem II. Their expected goals against are high too, which is why I would not want to bet on a clean sheet, but they concede fewer good chances than their opponents.
Willem II vs Cambuur: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am siding with Cambuur, with the draw covered. They are unbeaten in five, get far more shots on target than Willem II and have an excellent record in this fixture. Willem II have not won a league game since December 2024, concede almost three goals a game and have one point from four home matches.
The strongest argument against is the first game under a new man. Willem II have nothing to lose, the ground will be full, and Cambuur’s analysts admit they do not know what Koster will change. Cambuur are also without Bouah, and van Duijl is not fully certain. That is exactly why I want Draw No Bet rather than the straight away win at 2.50, and why the stake is lower than usual. A new-manager reaction is possible; I just do not think it is enough to beat a side in this kind of form.
My bet is SC Cambuur Draw No Bet at 1.85 with Winz. I expect a 1-2.