Schmidt’s first home game since announcing his exit, against a Hannover side that struggles on the road
Frank Schmidt announced on Tuesday that he will leave Heidenheim next summer after almost 20 years, and Sunday is his first game at the Voith-Arena since. His side need a lift: they have gone five league games without a win and were overrun at times in a 2-1 defeat at Karlsruhe last week. At home, though, they have not lost all season. Hannover arrive on the back of a first win under Sandro Wagner, 2-1 at home to Dresden, but away from home they have been poor.
„That is a top side in the 2. Bundesliga.“ – Sandro Wagner on Heidenheim (via hannover96.de, translated from German)
Predicted lineups: Heidenheim vs Hannover
Schmidt has only one new absentee, with Kerber out with muscle problems, so Heidenheim should line up with Budu Zivzivadze and Kaufmann up front and Jan Schöppner and Paul Hennrich in midfield. Hannover are without Lars Gindorf, Pichler and Steinmann. Husseyn Chakroun travels with a shoulder problem and a decision will be made close to kick-off, while Maurice Neubauer is a doubt.
1. FC Heidenheim Team News & Preview
Heidenheim are sixth with 15 points, and their home record is the foundation: three wins and two draws, 11 goals scored and seven conceded. They create 2.37 expected goals per game, the best figure in this fixture by a distance, and Schöppner and Zivzivadze have three league goals each. Marcel Costly has three assists.
The recent run is the concern. Five league games without a win, with defeats at Wolfsburg and Karlsruhe and a home draw with Cottbus, have taken some of the shine off a strong start. Schmidt’s focus this week has been on duels, second balls and quick play in the final third, and with no midweek games, his side have had eight days to work on it.
What works for or against Heidenheim
- Unbeaten at home this season (3W 2D).
- 2.37 expected goals per game.
- Five league games without a win.
- Overrun at times in the 2-1 defeat at Karlsruhe.
Hannover 96 Team News & Preview
Hannover are 15th with 11 points, although places ten to 16 are all on the same total. Away from home they have won once – 1-0 at Darmstadt – and lost the other four, scoring three goals and conceding ten. Wagner has been in charge since September and the comeback win over Dresden, after trailing at half-time, was only his first.
Losing Gindorf hurts. He is their joint top scorer with three league goals alongside Marcel Hartel, and Jonathan Källman has yet to score this season. Wagner insists he does not judge Källman by goals, but without Gindorf and possibly Chakroun, Hannover look short of threat.
What works for or against Hannover 96
- Beat Dresden 2-1 last weekend.
- Four defeats in five away league games (3:10).
- Joint top scorer Gindorf is out.
- Chakroun is a doubt with a shoulder problem.
Heidenheim vs Hannover Odds
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FC Heidenheim Form, Stats & Data
Heidenheim have scored 17 from more than 23 expected goals and conceded 18 from under 13 expected, so their results are worse than their performances at both ends. That points to a side that has been unlucky during the winless run rather than one that has fallen apart.
Hannover Form, Stats & Data
Hannover create more than their goal tally suggests, but one goal per game is a poor return, and their best-rated player is the one who is missing. Away from home they have rarely looked like a side that can hold out.
Heidenheim vs Hannover: Prediction & Betting Tip
Heidenheim’s underlying numbers are clearly the better ones in this fixture, they are unbeaten at home and they face a side that has lost four of five on the road and is missing its joint top scorer. The winless run looks like bad luck more than decline, given how many chances they keep creating. I make Heidenheim clear favourites.
The strongest argument against is that run itself. Five games without a win can weigh on a side, the Karlsruhe defeat was a poor performance, and Hannover now have a first win under Wagner to build on. I still prefer the home win to Draw No Bet, because none of the last ten 2. Bundesliga meetings between the clubs has been drawn and Heidenheim have won their last four home games against Hannover. Heidenheim to win at 2.00 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 2-0 home win.