A relegation six-pointer on plastic, and Sampdoria’s away problem
Carrarese against Sampdoria is a meeting of 15th and 19th, separated by two points. Sampdoria finally won under Luca D’Angelo last weekend, 2-0 against Entella, but their problem is the road: two points from six away league games, four goals scored and 13 conceded. Sunday’s game is on the artificial pitch at the Stadio dei Marmi, a surface on which Sampdoria have won once in their last seven matches, and they travel with a long injury list.
„We have to play it with a clear head and an awareness of what’s needed.“ – Guido Pagliuca before the Sampdoria game (via TuttoMercatoWeb, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Carrarese vs Sampdoria
Carrarese are expected to line up in Pagliuca’s 3-4-1-2, with Luka Topalović behind Tommaso Rubino and Fabio Abiuso. Colin Dagba is back in training but will start on the bench, and Niccolò Belloni is a doubt. Sampdoria are without the suspended Manuel Cicconi, Yari Verschaeren (hamstring), Tobias Lauritsen (bronchitis) and Alessandro Di Pardo (adductor), while Oliver Abildgaard is doubtful with a calf problem and Lorenzo Insigne is close to a return.
Carrarese Team News & Preview
Carrarese are 15th with ten points and have been hard to read: a 2-1 home win over Arezzo was followed by a 3-0 defeat at Verona, where Pagliuca said his side were careless and paid for it. He also pointed out that it was their third game in a week. They have scored nine and conceded 13 in ten games, and at home they have two wins and three defeats.
Their underlying numbers are steadier than their results, with 1.34 expected goals created and 1.28 allowed per game. Jonas Rouhi, their highest-rated player, leads Serie B for chances created according to La Nazione, and Rubino is top scorer with three goals.
What works for or against Carrarese
- Home advantage on an artificial pitch.
- Rouhi is one of the division's most creative players.
- Lost 3-0 at Verona last weekend.
- Three defeats in five home league games.
Sampdoria Team News & Preview
Sampdoria are 19th with eight points and in the relegation places. D’Angelo replaced Bernardo Corradi in October and has a draw, a defeat and a win from his three games. The 2-0 win over Entella was solid, but the 2-0 defeat at Ascoli a few days earlier, when they had little more than eleven fit players and under 30 per cent of the ball, shows how stretched they are.
Away from home they have drawn two and lost four. TuttoMercatoWeb notes that they have won four of their last 44 away games and only one of their last seven on artificial pitches. Verschaeren, who was injured early against Entella, joins a long list of absentees.
What works for or against Sampdoria
- Won 2-0 against Entella last weekend.
- Insigne close to a return.
- Two points from six away league games.
- Cicconi suspended and several players injured.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Carrarese vs. Sampdoria Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Carrarese vs. Sampdoria Form Guide
Carrarese Form, Stats & Data
Carrarese have scored only nine goals from more than 13 expected, so poor finishing has cost them points. Defensively they are close to their expected figures. At home, with a crowd Pagliuca has asked to get behind the team, they should have more of the play than their recent results suggest.
Sampdoria Form, Stats & Data
Sampdoria’s expected goals are not far from Carrarese’s, but their actual record is worse at both ends, especially away from home. With so many players missing, D’Angelo has little room to rotate.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is about Sampdoria’s away record as much as anything Carrarese do. Two points from six trips, 13 goals conceded, one win in seven on artificial pitches and a squad short of several regulars all point towards the hosts avoiding defeat. Carrarese have the more creative players available and home advantage on a surface they know.
The strongest argument against is that the season’s underlying numbers are close, and Sampdoria arrive after their first win under D’Angelo. Carrarese have also lost three of five at home. That is why I want the stake back on a draw and am keeping it low. Carrarese Draw No Bet at 1.67 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I expect a 1-0 home win.