Sarri under fire, 14 players missing: Atalanta’s crisis lands at Monza
Atalanta’s season is falling apart. A 3-0 home defeat to Parma was followed by a 1-1 draw with Kairat in the Conference League on Thursday, when the side was booed off, and they have now gone six games without a win in all competitions. Maurizio Sarri says he has 14 players unavailable, and after the Parma game sporting director Giuntoli would only say that everyone at the club was being questioned. Monza, who have lost three in a row themselves, have had a full week to prepare – and Ivan Jurić faces the club that sacked him a year ago.
„I see the week of the turnaround as hard.“ – Maurizio Sarri after the draw with Kairat (via Sportmediaset, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Monza vs Atalanta
Jurić is expected to keep his 3-4-2-1 with Gustavo Varela, Serie A’s top scorer, through the middle and Exequiel Zeballos and Dany Mota behind him. Jan Ziółkowski and Michael Folorunsho are among the absentees, but Ngonge has recovered from the muscle problem he picked up at Bologna. Atalanta are without Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou, Giacomo Raspadori, Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Kristensen and Gianluca Gaetano, while Franck Kessié and Sead Kolašinac are close to returning.
Monza Team News & Preview
Monza are 18th with seven points, and the defence is the reason: 24 goals conceded in ten games, 2.4 per match. The attack is a different story. They have scored in every league game this season, create 1.61 expected goals per game and have the league’s leading scorer in Varela, who has nine of their 17 goals.
The last three results have been painful – 3-2 at Torino, 4-1 at home to Napoli and 2-1 at Bologna after leading through a Varela penalty – and Jurić has complained that his side lack the know-how to close games out. At home they have two wins and two defeats, and they come into this one fresh after eight days without a game.
What works for or against Monza
- Have scored in all ten league games.
- Gustavo Varela leads Serie A with nine goals.
- 24 goals conceded, 2.4 per game.
- Three league defeats in a row.
Atalanta Team News & Preview
Atalanta’s last league win came against Venezia on 12 October. Since then they have drawn at Fiorentina, lost 3-0 at home to Parma and been held by Kairat, with Scamacca jeered when he was substituted. Away from home in the league they have one draw and three defeats, and they concede 1.83 expected goals per game, more than Monza.
Sarri described Thursday’s equaliser as a „stupid goal“ and has now played eight games in 23 days with a heavily depleted squad. Nikola Krstović, with six league goals, and Charles De Ketelaere, their highest-rated player, remain dangerous, but the side has looked flat and short of confidence.
What works for or against Atalanta
- Krstović has six league goals.
- Six games without a win in all competitions.
- One point from four away league games.
- Three days' rest and 14 players unavailable.
Monza vs Atalanta Odds
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Monza Form, Stats & Data
Monza have conceded 24 goals from 14.7 expected against, which points to errors and poor fortune rather than a side that is constantly overrun. Going forward they are in line with their chances and have a striker in form. Their table position is worse than their performances, and a rested squad helps against a tired opponent.
Atalanta Form, Stats & Data
Atalanta’s numbers are almost identical to Monza’s going forward and worse at the back. That is not the profile of a side that should be strong favourites away from home, especially with this many absentees and Sarri’s position in question.
Monza vs Atalanta: Prediction & Betting Tip
The name on the shirt says Atalanta, but nothing else does. They are winless in six, have one point from four away league games, are missing 14 players and play three days after a European tie. Monza are rested, score in every game and have the league’s top scorer. I make the hosts at least as likely to win this as the visitors.
The strongest argument against is Monza’s own defence. They have lost three in a row and concede 2.4 goals per game, so a quick Atalanta goal could settle things. That is why I am taking Draw No Bet rather than the home win. Monza Draw No Bet at 2.34 with Winz is my bet at 3/10, and I expect a 2-1 home win.