Two tight defences meet on Entella’s artificial pitch
Modena arrive in Chiavari third in Serie B, a point behind second-placed Ascoli, and with the chance to move into the automatic promotion places. Entella are 14th, still looking for their first home win of the season, and lost the Ligurian derby 2-0 at Sampdoria last weekend. What the two sides share is a defence that gives very little away: on expected goals, both allow fewer than 0.9 per game.
„It’s a ground where we have to try to take points, knowing the game could get scrappy.“ – Daniele Galloppa before the trip to Entella (via TuttoMercatoWeb, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Entella vs Modena
Entella are without defender Mattia Alborghetti, who tore a thigh muscle against Sampdoria, and Davide Bariti is also out. The line-up below follows the predictions of PianetaSerieB and DAZN. Modena have lost Giuseppe Caso for the long term after cruciate ligament surgery, Alessandro Sersanti and Joris Manquant are also missing, and Stênio is expected back only after the international break. Galloppa is considering managing Andrea Belotti’s minutes and will decide on Saturday.
Virtus Entella Team News & Preview
Entella have ten points from ten games, and seven of them came away from home. At the Sannazzari they have three draws and two defeats, scoring five and conceding seven. They create only 1.11 expected goals per game, but they also allow just 0.88, the profile of a side that keeps games tight.
The derby defeat followed a familiar pattern. Entella started well, with Luca Vignali hitting the crossbar early, but an own goal by Andrea Tiritiello changed the game and Andrea Chiappella admitted his side lost their composure afterwards. Tiritiello and Bernat Guiu are joint top scorers with two goals each.
What works for or against Entella
- Only 0.88 expected goals allowed per game.
- Used to their artificial pitch.
- No home league win this season.
- Alborghetti out with a thigh tear.
Modena Team News & Preview
Modena have the best FotMob team rating in this fixture and the stronger numbers at both ends: 1.52 expected goals for and 0.82 against per game. They have conceded ten goals in ten league games. Away from home they have three wins, a draw and a defeat.
Belotti has seven league goals and has scored in six consecutive league games, including last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Mantova, but Galloppa wants to protect him, and Caso’s injury takes away another attacking option. Giuseppe Ambrosino is their highest-rated player. Galloppa has said Entella have played well at home despite their results, and that the hosts are more used to the surface.
What works for or against Modena
- 0.82 expected goals allowed per game.
- Belotti has seven league goals.
- Caso out for the long term.
- Belotti's minutes may be managed.
Entella vs Modena Odds
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Entella vs. Modena Stats Comparison
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Entella vs. Modena Form Guide
Entella Form, Stats & Data
Entella’s numbers describe a cautious, compact side: few chances created, few allowed. Their goals for and against are close to their expected figures, so there is no sign of luck distorting the picture.
Modena Form, Stats & Data
Modena are the better side and have scored slightly more than their chances suggest. Their defensive record is excellent, and against a team that creates as little as Entella, I expect them to control the game rather than chase goals.
Entella vs Modena: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not betting on a winner; I am betting on the type of game. Both defences allow fewer than 0.9 expected goals per game, Entella create very little, and Modena’s attack is weakened by Caso’s injury and possibly a rest for Belotti. Galloppa himself expects a scrappy afternoon on a difficult surface, and Entella’s home games have produced three draws in five.
The strongest argument against is the actual goals in these sides‘ recent games. Modena have nine goals in five league trips, their games on the road have averaged almost three goals, and Entella’s home games have produced 12 goals in five. If Modena score early, Entella have to open up. Because of that, the stake stays low. Under 2.5 Goals at 1.65 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I expect a 0-1 away win.