One of the league’s tightest home defences against its bluntest attack
Gent have been almost impossible to score against at the Planet Group Arena: five home league games, five wins, two goals conceded. Kortrijk, bottom with four points, have the weakest attack in the division by a distance, with four league goals all season and one in five away games. The hosts have their own concerns – no goals in their last two matches, a Thursday trip to Finland for a 0-0 draw with KuPS, and defensive leader Christian Burgess out for two to three months with a small fracture near the ankle – but the basic match-up is stark.
„We create enough chances. In the first half we did everything we had to, but we lack sharpness in front of goal.“ – Rik De Mil after the draw at KuPS (via VoetbalPrimeur, translated from Dutch)
Predicted lineups: Gent vs Kortrijk
The line-ups below are based on each side’s last league XI. Gent are without Burgess, Ibrahima Cissé and Michel-Ange Balikwisha, and Mouhamed Ngom has a serious knee injury. Kortrijk lose James Ndjeungoue, sent off against Mechelen on Wednesday, and Daniel Beichler’s choice to replace him at centre-back is not known, so the slot is left open.
KAA Gent Team News & Preview
Gent are third with 25 points, two behind leaders Club Brugge, and their defence has been the best in the league: six goals conceded in ten games and only 0.82 expected goals allowed per match. Their first league defeat came at Lommel last Sunday, 2-0, and on Thursday they dominated at KuPS without scoring. Rik De Mil says the problem is finishing, not chance creation.
Burgess’s absence is the main worry for the back three. Siebe van der Heyden said other players now have to step up. Tiago Araújo, their highest-rated player, and Momodou Sonko remain the main sources of danger, while top scorer Cissé is still out.
What works for or against Gent
- Five home league wins, two goals conceded.
- 0.82 expected goals allowed per game.
- Burgess out for two to three months.
- Played in Finland on Thursday.
KV Kortrijk Team News & Preview
Kortrijk are bottom with one win from ten games and four league goals. They average 2.9 shots on target and 1.05 expected goals per game, and away from home they have scored once in five matches. Daniel Beichler has won one of his nine games in charge.
There were signs of life on Wednesday. Kortrijk had the better of the first hour against Mechelen, led through Thierry Ambrose and hit the woodwork twice through Goduine Koyalipou, before Ndjeungoue’s red card turned the game and they lost 3-1. Captain Brecht Dejaeghere said the team was in control until then, but admitted that „the table doesn’t lie“.
What works for or against Kortrijk
- Scored in their last two league games.
- Four league goals in ten games.
- One goal in five away league games.
- Ndjeungoue suspended after his red card.
Gent vs Kortrijk Odds
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KAA Gent vs. Kortrijk Stats Comparison
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KAA Gent vs. Kortrijk Form Guide
KAA Gent Form, Stats & Data
Gent’s defensive numbers are the foundation of their season, and they are backed up by the underlying data rather than luck. Losing Burgess hurts, but the structure that limits opponents to fewer than one expected goal per game is a team effort.
Kortrijk Form, Stats & Data
Kortrijk have a FotMob team rating of only 6.49 and no player with more than one league goal. Even their expected goals are low, so this is not just a case of poor finishing. Away from home, they have barely threatened all season.
Gent vs Kortrijk: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am betting on Kortrijk’s attack rather than on the result. They have one away goal all season, they create very few chances, and they visit a side that has conceded two goals in five home games. Gent may be tired and missing Burgess, but they keep the ball out at home and Kortrijk will spend long spells without it.
The strongest argument against is Kortrijk’s recent form in front of goal. They scored in each of their last two league games and hit the woodwork twice against Mechelen, and Gent’s back line has to be reshuffled after Burgess’s injury. A set piece or a single mistake is enough to lose this bet, which is why the stake is low. Kortrijk under 0.5 team goals at 2.02 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I expect a 2-0 home win.