Depleted and tired, AGF host a rested Horsens
AGF’s title defence has not gone to plan. The champions are outside the top six with 12 points from 13 games, they have failed to score in their last two matches, and they go into Sunday three days after a 0-0 draw with Braga in the Conference League. The bigger problem is the team sheet. Captain Kristian Arnstad is suspended, defensive leader Frederik Tingager is out for the rest of the autumn after a hamstring injury in training on Wednesday, and top scorer Janni Serra is injured. Newly promoted Horsens have not played since last Sunday.
Predicted lineups: AGF vs Horsens
The line-ups below are based on each side’s last league XI. Jakob Poulsen has to replace Arnstad in midfield, and his choice is not known, so the slot is left open. Nicolai Poulsen and Kevin Yakob are also out, and Daniel Gretarsson is absent for personal reasons, while Mikael Anderson is close to a return. Horsens have no suspensions and are expected to stick with Niki Zimling’s 4-2-3-1 around Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan.
AGF Team News & Preview
AGF have 17 league goals in 13 games, and their underlying numbers – 1.56 expected goals for and 1.59 against per game – are those of a mid-table side rather than champions. They were the better team for long spells against Braga on Thursday but could not score, and before that they lost 2-0 at Brøndby. At home they have been harder to beat, with two wins, three draws and one defeat.
The absences are the story of the week. Arnstad has the best FotMob rating in the squad and captains the side, Tingager is their experienced defensive anchor, and Serra, with five league goals, is their leading scorer. Losing all three, with only three days to recover from a European game, is a lot to absorb.
What works for or against AGF
- Only one home league defeat this season.
- Won their last four home league games against Horsens.
- Arnstad suspended, Tingager and Serra injured.
- No goals in their last two games, the latest on Thursday.
AC Horsens Team News & Preview
Horsens are seventh with 16 points and have been one of the more dangerous attacking sides in the division, scoring 23 league goals, six more than AGF. Their last two weeks have been poor, though. They were knocked out of the cup by second-division Brabrand with a heavily rotated side, and they lost 1-0 at Viborg last Sunday. Away from home they have two wins, one draw and three defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 11.
The first meeting this season showed what they can do: AGF led 2-0 before Horsens scored in the 89th and 94th minutes to draw 2-2. They have had a full week to prepare for this one.
What works for or against Horsens
- A full week of rest, against three days for AGF.
- 23 league goals, 1.8 per game.
- Lost 1-0 at Viborg and went out of the cup to Brabrand.
- Only two away wins this season.
AGF vs Horsens Odds
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Aarhus vs. Horsens Stats Comparison
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Aarhus vs. Horsens Form Guide
Aarhus Form, Stats & Data
AGF keep the ball well but create few shots on target, 3.8 per game, and both their top scorer and their best-rated player miss this game. Their numbers at both ends are no better than Horsens‘, despite the gap in reputation.
Horsens Form, Stats & Data
Horsens score more than their chances suggest and concede slightly less, so some regression is possible. Even so, they get more shots on target than AGF and arrive with fresh legs.
AGF vs Horsens: Prediction & Betting Tip
On paper AGF are heavy favourites, but this is not the side that won the title. Without their captain, their top scorer and their most experienced defender, and three days after a European game, they face a Horsens team that scores freely and has had a full week to rest. I think Horsens are well capable of getting something from this game.
The strongest argument against is the history and the venue. AGF have won their last four home league meetings with Horsens and have lost only once at home this season, while Horsens arrive on a poor run. That is why the stake is low, and why I want the money back if it ends level. Horsens Draw No Bet at 3.34 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I lean towards a 1-2 away win.