A tired Leverkusen side under pressure head into the Rhine derby
Leverkusen go into the derby in their worst spell of the season. They have lost three of their last four competitive games – 0-3 at Hoffenheim, 2-4 at home to Stuttgart and 0-1 to Marseille in the Europa League on Thursday – and Carles Martínez admitted his side looked tired and short of energy. Former captain Robert Andrich said on RTL that he thinks the club should be worried. Köln have problems of their own, with fans chanting against René Wagner after the 0-0 with Schalke, but they are unbeaten at home and have had a full week to prepare.
„I can see we’re a bit tired. We lacked energy.“ – Carles Martínez after the defeat to Marseille (via dpa, translated from German)
Predicted lineups: Köln vs Leverkusen
Wagner is expected to go with a 3-3-2-2, with Mikey Moore, who he says has a decent chance of starting, alongside Linton Maina behind Saïd El Mala and Marius Bülter. Ragnar Ache is back in full training and is a bench option. Köln are still without Ellyes Skhiri, Timo Hübers and Thijs Dallinga. For Leverkusen, Nathan Tella is a new absentee with muscle problems and Moussa Diaby is out, while Christian Kofane is close to a return.
1. FC Köln Team News & Preview
Köln are 14th with nine points, but their home form has kept them out of trouble: two wins and two draws at the RheinEnergieSTADION, with six goals scored and four conceded. The problem is the attack. They have scored only nine league goals in eight games, and in the 1-1 at Union last week they did not have a shot on target before half-time, needing a late corner to equalise.
The 5-0 cup win over Union eased some of the pressure on Wagner, and sporting director Thomas Kessler has publicly backed him. Borna Sosa has been their best player on the FotMob ratings, and Saïd El Mala, with two league goals, is their most dangerous forward.
What works for or against Köln
- Unbeaten in four home league games (6:4).
- Seven days' rest against less than three for Leverkusen.
- Only nine league goals in eight games.
- Skhiri, Hübers and Dallinga are all out.
Bayer Leverkusen Team News & Preview
On paper Leverkusen are much the stronger side. They create 2.00 expected goals per game and Patrik Schick has seven league goals, scoring in seven of their eight league matches. The issue is the defence: 16 goals conceded in eight games and 1.77 expected goals allowed per match, with Stuttgart creating more than three expected goals in Leverkusen’s own stadium a week ago.
Away from home they have one win, one draw and two defeats, scoring eight and conceding 11. Thursday’s game against Marseille kicked off at 9pm, so they have well under three days to recover before a derby. Martínez said his side need to clear their heads and become mentally stronger.
What works for or against Leverkusen
- Schick has scored in seven of eight league games.
- 2.00 expected goals per game.
- Three defeats in their last four competitive games.
- Played Thursday evening in the Europa League.
Köln vs Leverkusen Odds
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Cologne vs. Leverkusen Stats Comparison
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Cologne vs. Leverkusen Form Guide
Cologne Form, Stats & Data
Köln have scored nine goals from more than 12 expected, so finishing has cost them points. Their defensive numbers are almost identical to Leverkusen’s, which says more about Leverkusen’s problems than Köln’s strength. At home they have been hard to beat.
Leverkusen Form, Stats & Data
Leverkusen keep the ball and create plenty, but they also allow almost as much as they create. A side conceding two goals per game, on short rest and low on confidence, is vulnerable away from home in a derby.
Köln vs Leverkusen: Prediction & Betting Tip
Leverkusen have the better players and the better attack, but everything around this game points against them. They are tired, have lost three of four, concede two goals per game and play a derby less than three days after a European tie. Köln are unbeaten at home, fully rested and will have the crowd behind them. I think the hosts are good enough to avoid defeat here.
The strongest argument against is Köln’s attack. They have only nine league goals, struggled to create anything at Union, and Schick is in excellent form. If Leverkusen score first, I do not trust Köln to come back. That is why I am taking Draw No Bet and keeping the stake low. Köln Draw No Bet at 2.90 with Winz is my bet at 2/10, and I expect a 2-1 home win.