Flick’s patched-up defence meets one of the competition’s most prolific attacks
Pre-match update (20:00 CET): The teams are in. Villa have not rotated: Nicolas Jackson, Emiliano Buendía and Johan Manzambi all start. Barcelona’s back four is Brian Fariñas, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín and João Cancelo, with Frenkie de Jong on the bench rather than at centre-back, so the reshuffled defence is, if anything, even less experienced than expected. My bet stays Aston Villa over 0.5 team goals at 1.44 with MyStake (2/10). The odds quoted are from the time of publication; prices may have moved since.
Barcelona bounced back from defeats by PSG and Real Madrid with a 6-1 win over Alavés on Saturday, and they still lead LaLiga. But Hansi Flick goes into this game with four defenders missing, and the problem goes back further: Barça have not kept a clean sheet in their last 18 Champions League games. Aston Villa arrive second in the table after three wins and 12 goals, including 6-0 against Fenerbahçe. Their domestic form is patchier, with a draw against Fulham and a 3-0 cup defeat at Bournemouth in the last week, but Unai Emery’s side have been at their best in Europe.
“Tenemos cuatro bajas en defensa, de jugadores de calidad, y no es fácil gestionar eso.” (“We have four absences in defence, quality players, and that is not easy to manage.”) – Hansi Flick, pre-match press conference
Predicted lineups: Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Jules Koundé and Eric García trained apart from the group and are not expected back until after the international break. Andreas Christensen is also out, Xavi Espart has an ankle injury from the Clásico, and Dani Olmo is missing with an adductor problem. Flick has gone with Gerard Martín alongside Pau Cubarsí in the middle, Brian Fariñas at right-back and João Cancelo on the left, while Frenkie de Jong starts on the bench. Villa are without Amadou Onana, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Matteo Ruggeri, but Emery has named his strongest available side. The line-ups below are the confirmed starting XIs published by both clubs.
Barcelona Team News & Preview
Going forward, Barcelona are as dangerous as ever. They have 46 goals in 11 league games, Raphinha has 15 and Lamine Yamal ten, and Saturday’s 6-1 showed what happens when opponents leave space. The issue is at the back. Without Koundé, Christensen, Eric García and Espart, Flick has paired Gerard Martín with Cubarsí in the middle and handed Fariñas the right-back spot, and Barça conceded four in Paris and two against Real Madrid in their last two big games.
The clean-sheet run is the key figure for this bet. In 18 Champions League games, Barcelona have conceded every time, and they conceded in all three this season, against Feyenoord, Galatasaray and PSG.
What works for or against Barcelona
- 46 goals in 11 LaLiga games, with Raphinha on 15.
- No clean sheet in their last 18 Champions League games.
- Four defenders out, plus Dani Olmo.
- Lost 4-2 at PSG and 2-1 to Real Madrid before Saturday's win.
Aston Villa Team News & Preview
Villa have scored in every Champions League game: 3-2 at Club Brugge, 6-0 against Fenerbahçe and 3-1 against Viking, with Nicolas Jackson on three European goals. Emilio Buendía has scored in each of his last four major European appearances, according to Opta. They have also beaten Manchester City and won at Newcastle recently.
Their recent domestic form is a warning sign. They drew 1-1 with Fulham on Saturday and lost 3-0 at Bournemouth in the League Cup, and they average only three shots on target per Premier League game. Emery’s record at the Camp Nou is also poor, with one win in 15 visits as a manager.
What works for or against Aston Villa
- Scored in all three Champions League games, 12 goals in total.
- Buendía has scored in his last four major European appearances.
- Only three shots on target per Premier League game.
- Emery has won once in 15 visits to the Camp Nou.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa Odds
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Barcelona Form, Stats & Data
Barcelona create almost 3.5 expected goals per league game, so I expect them to win. Domestically they allow about one goal per game, but in Europe they have been opened up regularly, and they have conceded 6 times in three Champions League games this season.
Aston Villa Form, Stats & Data
These are Villa’s Premier League numbers, and they are modest. In the Champions League the picture is very different: nine expected goals and 12 goals in three games. I expect them to spend long spells without the ball, but they have the counter-attacking players to hurt a reshuffled back line.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa: Prediction & Betting Tip
I think Barcelona win this, but I do not think they keep Villa out. They have conceded in 18 straight Champions League games, they are missing four defenders, and Villa have scored in every European game this season.
The strongest argument against the bet is Villa’s domestic attack, with only three shots on target per Premier League game, and the likelihood that Barça dominate the ball for long periods. The odds are short, so the stake stays at 2/10, but I am backing Aston Villa over 0.5 team goals at 1.44 with MyStake. I see Barcelona winning 3-1.