Bayern’s injury crisis meets an Atlético midfield short of bodies
Pre-match update (20:07 CET): Both teams are in. Manuel Neuer and Michael Olise start for Bayern, Harry Kane leads the line, and Alphonso Davies plays further forward alongside Lennart Karl, with Josip Stanišić in the back four. Aleksandar Pavlović drops to the bench, so Tom Bischof partners Joshua Kimmich. Atlético are without the suspended Morten Hjulmand plus Johnny Cardoso and Cuti Romero, and Koke is only on the bench, so Marcos Llorente moves into midfield next to Pablo Barrios. Alexander Sørloth starts up front instead of Ademola Lookman. Bayern’s midfield is lighter without Pavlović, but Atlético’s is the thinner of the two, and Bayern’s front four is as strong as it can be right now. I am sticking with Bayern München Draw No Bet at 1.82 at 2/10. The odds quoted are from 2 November; prices may have moved since.
This is a big game for both sides in the race for the top eight. Bayern have five points from three games after back-to-back draws with Viking and Arsenal, and Atlético have four after beating Manchester United and drawing in Stuttgart. Diego Simeone’s side are unbeaten in nine and won 2-0 at Levante on Saturday. Bayern come in with assistant Aaron Danks still in charge while Vincent Kompany recovers, and with four attackers missing after Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Dortmund.
„Ehrlicherweise fühlt sich das schon ein bisschen heftig an, was um uns herum passiert.“ (“Honestly, what is happening around us feels quite heavy.”) – Max Eberl, quoted by Abendzeitung
Predicted lineups: Atlético vs Bayern
Bayern’s starting XI is confirmed. Ismael Saibari (ankle surgery), Serge Gnabry (hamstring), Luis Díaz and Jamal Musiala are all out, but Michael Olise passed his fitness test and starts, and Manuel Neuer is back in goal after missing the Dortmund game. Aaron Danks has gone with Tom Bischof next to Joshua Kimmich, leaving Aleksandar Pavlović on the bench, and Alphonso Davies plays in the attacking line with Lennart Karl and Olise behind Harry Kane. Atlético are without Morten Hjulmand, who was sent off in Stuttgart, plus Johnny Cardoso (muscle) and Cuti Romero, who are both left out of the squad. Captain Koke is back in the squad after his muscle problem but starts on the bench. Simeone has gone with Marcos Llorente next to Pablo Barrios in central midfield, Marc Pubill at right-back, Robin Le Normand in for Romero, and Alexander Sørloth up front with Julián Álvarez, so Ademola Lookman drops out. Both starting line-ups below are the confirmed XIs.
Atlético Madrid Team News & Preview
Atlético’s form is excellent on paper: unbeaten in nine, eight goals conceded in 11 league games, and three clean sheets in their last four league games with Jan Oblak in goal. Álex Baena leads their league scoring with five, and Alejandro Grimaldo has been their best-rated player.
The midfield is the worry. Hjulmand is suspended and Cardoso misses out with a muscle injury. Koke is back in the squad but has only just recovered from a muscle problem, and Pablo Barrios has been managing physical issues of his own. Cuti Romero is also missing at centre-back. Against a Bayern side that averages 9.5 shots on target per league game, losing the players who protect the back four matters more than usual.
What works for or against Atlético
- Unbeaten in nine games in all competitions.
- Only eight goals conceded in 11 LaLiga games.
- Hjulmand is suspended, and Cardoso and Cuti Romero are out.
- Lost 2-1 at Liverpool on matchday one.
Bayern München Team News & Preview
Bayern top the Bundesliga with 27 goals in eight games, 3.54 expected goals per game and only 0.9 against. Danks has won two and drawn one of his three games in charge, and Olise, with six league goals and the best rating in the squad, starts after passing a fitness test. Harry Kane leads the line.
The squad is stretched, though. Saibari, Gnabry, Díaz and Musiala are all out, which leaves young players like Lennart Karl and Tom Bischof with big roles, and they conceded an 89th-minute equaliser against Dortmund on Saturday. They have also not won in the Champions League since the opening night.
What works for or against Bayern
- 3.54 expected goals and 9.5 shots on target per Bundesliga game.
- Olise and Neuer both start.
- Saibari, Gnabry, Díaz and Musiala are out.
- Kompany is still absent, and Bayern have not won in the Champions League since matchday one.
Atlético vs Bayern Odds
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Atlético vs. Bayern Munich Stats Comparison
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Atlético vs. Bayern Munich Form Guide
Atlético Form, Stats & Data
Atlético’s defensive record is better than their expected goals against, and Oblak is part of that. Their attack is solid rather than spectacular, at 1.61 expected goals per game, which is less than half of Bayern’s output.
Bayern Munich Form, Stats & Data
Even with the absences, Bayern create far more than they concede, and the gap in shots on target between the two sides is large: 9.5 per game against Atlético’s 6.1.
Atlético vs Bayern: Prediction & Betting Tip
Atlético are in form and hard to beat at home, but Hjulmand and Cardoso are missing in midfield, Koke is only on the bench after his injury and Cuti Romero is out at the back. Bayern are short of wide players, yet Kane, Olise and Kimmich all start, and their chance creation is far above Atlético’s.
The strongest argument against the bet is Bayern’s situation: an interim manager, four attackers missing, Pavlović only on the bench and a late equaliser conceded against Dortmund. That is why I want the draw covered and keep the stake to 2/10. I am backing Bayern München Draw No Bet at 1.82 with MyStake. I can see Bayern winning 2-1.