Linz could be another long night for Slovan’s attack
Pre-match update (20:05 CET): Both managers have rotated. Touré has left top scorer Rahim Ibrahim, Peter Pokorný, Sandro Cruz and goalkeeper Dominik Takáč out of his XI, with Tigran Barseghyan and Kenan Bajrič only on the bench. Kühbauer keeps Jungwirth and the back three of Mbuyamba, Alemão and Andrade, but Saša Kalajdžić and Christoph Lang are not in the LASK XI. The defence I was relying on is intact and Slovan’s attack looks even weaker on paper, so I am sticking with Slovan Bratislava under 0.5 team goals at 2.74 for 1/10. I am not raising the stake: without Kalajdžić and Lang, LASK may not dominate as much as I expected. The odds quoted are from when this preview was published on 2 November; prices may have moved since.
Slovan Bratislava have had a miserable Champions League campaign so far: 6-1 at PSG, 3-0 at home to Stuttgart and 4-0 in Rome, with no points and a goal difference of minus 12. Yaya Touré’s side are doing well at home in Slovakia, second in the league, but in Europe they have barely created a chance. LASK, three points ahead after winning 3-2 in Lisbon, see this as the game that keeps their hopes of a knockout play-off place alive. Slovan will also be without away fans after UEFA banned ticket sales over the trouble in Rome, and the club has confirmed its supporters will not be in Linz.
„Slovan ist ein Gegner auf Augenhöhe. Wir werden alles daran setzen, um sie zu schlagen.“ (“Slovan are on our level. We will do everything we can to beat them.”) – Dietmar Kühbauer, quoted by Sky Sport Austria
Predicted lineups: LASK vs Slovan Bratislava
These are the confirmed line-ups. Kühbauer has changed his front line: Saša Kalajdžić and Christoph Lang both drop out of the XI, with Usor and Adeniran leading the attack, and Bogarde comes into midfield in place of Daněk. Jungwirth and the back three of Mbuyamba, Alemão and Andrade start as expected, while George Bello and Ramiz Harakaté are still out. Touré has rung the changes too. Aleksandar Popovič replaces Dominik Takáč in goal, Rahim Ibrahim, Peter Pokorný and Sandro Cruz are not in the XI, and Tigran Barseghyan and Kenan Bajrič start on the bench. Andraž Šporar has shaken off his illness and leads the line. Roman Čerepkai and Alasana Yirajang are unavailable.
LASK Team News & Preview
LASK have been one of the better sides in Austria this season. They are third with 26 goals scored and 13 conceded in 11 league games, and their underlying numbers are strong: 2.38 expected goals for and 1.17 against per game, with 6.3 shots on target. Christoph Lang leads the scoring with seven league goals, and Andrés Andrade has been their best-rated player in the back three.
Europe has been harder. They lost 1-0 in Athens and 6-3 at home to Liverpool before the 3-2 win at Sporting. Fatigue is the obvious concern. This is LASK’s eighth game in 24 days, including a cup tie against Ried that went to extra time last Wednesday, and Schöpf admitted that playing every three days takes its toll.
What works for or against LASK
- Only 13 goals conceded in 11 Austrian Bundesliga games.
- Won 3-2 at Sporting in their last Champions League game.
- Eighth game in 24 days, including 120 minutes in the cup.
- Conceded nine goals in three Champions League games, six of them against Liverpool.
Slovan Bratislava Team News & Preview
Slovan are a different team at home. They are second in the Slovak league with 30 goals in 13 games, and Rahim Ibrahim has five league goals. They won 2-1 at Podbrezová on Saturday, but the second half showed how tired they are, and Touré said there had been very little time to prepare after the midweek game.
In the Champions League they have looked out of their depth. They have averaged 1.7 shots on target per game and their only goal came in the 6-1 defeat in Paris. After the 4-0 loss in Rome, Touré called the night a nightmare and said his side were „very weak“ defensively. The opposition so far has been stronger than LASK, which is the main argument against this bet, but the gap between their domestic and European attacking numbers is huge.
What works for or against Slovan
- One goal and 1.7 shots on target per game in the Champions League.
- No points and a goal difference of minus 12.
- Second in Slovakia with 30 league goals in 13 games.
- No away fans in Linz because of the UEFA ticket ban.
LASK vs Slovan Bratislava Odds
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LASK Form, Stats & Data
Domestically LASK allow just over one expected goal per game, and Liverpool did most of the damage against them in Europe. At home against one of the weakest attacks in the competition so far, I expect them to have most of the ball and limit Slovan to very little.
Slovan Bratislava Form, Stats & Data
These are Slovan’s Slovak league numbers, and they show a team that scores freely at home. In the Champions League the picture is the opposite: 1.6 expected goals across three games and one goal, so I trust the European numbers more for this fixture.
LASK vs Slovan Bratislava: Prediction & Betting Tip
Slovan have created almost nothing in this competition, and they come to Linz tired, without away fans, after a defensive collapse in Rome and now without Ibrahim, their top league scorer, in the XI. LASK have conceded just over one goal per league game and need the win, so I expect them to control the game.
The strongest argument against the bet is the level of the opposition: PSG, Stuttgart and Roma are stronger than LASK, Slovan score plenty in Slovakia, and LASK have conceded in all three of their Champions League games. That is why this is only a small bet. I am backing Slovan Bratislava under 0.5 team goals at 2.74 with MyStake for 1/10. I see LASK winning 2-0.