Portland’s back four falls apart just as the must-win game arrives
Pre-match update (02:50 CET): The Timbers have confirmed a 6:30pm local kick-off, which is 03:30 CET rather than the 03:45 first listed here. The official team sheets were not out when I checked, and there is still no confirmed word on whether Guilherme or Héctor Herrera are fit for Houston. Portland’s absentee list has not changed: Kamal Miller is suspended, while Jimer Fory and Trey Muse are out with concussions. Nothing I have seen changes the picture, so Houston Double Chance (X2) stays at 2/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 1 November; prices may have moved since.
Portland finally won back-to-back games this week, but the 3-2 win in St. Louis came at a cost. Kamal Miller was sent off for a second yellow card in stoppage time and Jimer Fory is now out with a concussion, so Martí Cifuentes has to rebuild a defence that already had four regulars out. Portland are 11th and must win both remaining games to have any chance of the playoffs. Houston have already qualified, but a win would keep them in the race for a top-four place and home advantage in Round One.
“We know it’s not just up to us but we have a chance as long as we win the next two games.” – Martí Cifuentes, Portland manager
Predicted lineups: Portland vs Houston
Finn Surman is the likely replacement for Miller next to Joel Waterman, and Eric Miller is one option at left-back with Fory out. Brandon Bye, Zac McGraw, Juan Mosquera and Alex Bonetig are all injured, as is goalkeeper Trey Muse, so James Pantemis stays in goal. Houston’s big question is Guilherme. The Brazilian has 16 goals and eight assists and is their highest-rated player, but he and Héctor Herrera are both listed as questionable after missing Wednesday’s win in Seattle. I have left both out of the predicted XI. Ben Olsen is back on the touchline after a one-game ban.
Portland Team News & Preview
Before the last week, Portland had gone seven league games without a win. The 3-2 against Charlotte and the 3-2 in St. Louis changed the mood, and Kristoffer Velde scored twice on Wednesday, but the second half in Missouri was a warning: Portland led 3-0, then conceded twice and finished with ten men.
The bigger problem is the back line. Portland have conceded 60 goals, a total only three teams in the West have exceeded, and that was with a defence that is now missing six players. At home they have won eight of 16, but they have also lost four and drawn four. A team that has to attack because only a win will do is also a team that leaves gaps.
What works for or against Portland
- Two wins in a row and Velde scored twice on Wednesday.
- Eight wins in 16 home league games.
- Miller is suspended and Fory is out, on top of four other injured defenders.
- Sixty goals conceded in 32 league games.
- Only a win keeps their playoff hopes alive.
Houston Team News & Preview
Thirteen clean sheets, the joint-best season in club history, describe how Houston have got to fifth place. Wednesday’s 1-0 in Seattle was the extreme version: they had two shots to Seattle’s 21, Lucas Halter scored from a corner, and Jonathan Bond made five saves. Houston are now unbeaten in five league games, and away from home they have won six, drawn four and lost six.
Guilherme is the player who matters most in attack. He has been directly involved in 24 of Houston’s 42 league goals, and without him their chance creation is limited. Houston stayed in the Pacific Northwest between the two games rather than travelling home, and with St. Louis still level on points with them, they have a clear reason to want a result.
What works for or against Houston
- Thirteen clean sheets and unbeaten in five league games.
- Lost only six of 16 away league games.
- Guilherme and Herrera are questionable after missing Wednesday's game.
- Only 1.16 expected goals per game, one of the lowest figures in the West.
Portland vs Houston Odds
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Portland Timbers Form, Stats & Data
An expected goals against figure of 1.66 per game was already a weakness with a settled defence. Portland have also scored more than their chances suggest, 57 goals from 49.1 expected goals. With two more first-choice defenders missing, I do not see this as a side that will keep Houston out for 90 minutes, even if they are the more dangerous team going forward.
Houston Dynamo Form, Stats & Data
The gap between Guilherme’s FotMob rating of 7.91 and the next-best regular shows how much Houston depend on him. Without him, Bogusz and Foster have to carry the attack. Houston have conceded fewer goals than their expected goals against suggests, partly because of Bond, so their defensive record is less solid than it looks.
Portland vs Houston: Prediction & Betting Tip
Portland are favourites because they need the win and play at home, but I do not trust a defence that is missing its starting centre-back and left-back from Wednesday, plus four other injured defenders. Houston are hard to beat: unbeaten in five, six away defeats all season, and they still have a reason to want points.
Guilherme is the reason I am cautious. If he misses out, Houston’s attack is much weaker, and Portland could score twice without much help. That is why I am only staking 2/10, but I am taking Houston Double Chance (X2) at 2.02 with MyStake. I expect a 1-1 draw.