Schwake one shutout from history as the Shield winners say goodbye to GEODIS Park
Pre-match update (21:55 CET): The absences on the New York side are confirmed: Ronald Donkor and Dylan Nealis are suspended and Justin Che is out with a knee problem, and New York signed RBNY II defender Connor Faello on a short-term deal ahead of this game. Nashville have reported no new absentees. The official team sheets had not been published when I made my final check, so the line-ups below are still my prediction rather than the confirmed XIs. Nothing in the latest news weakens the case, so my bet stays as it was: New York Red Bulls under 0.5 team goals at 2.96 with MyStake, 3/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 1 November; prices may have moved since.
Nashville wrapped up the Supporters‘ Shield with a 2-0 win in Montréal a week ago, but Sunday is far from meaningless for them. A win would equal the MLS points record, Brian Schwake is one clean sheet away from Tony Meola’s single-season record, and the trophy is presented after the final whistle. The Red Bulls need the opposite: after Columbus beat D.C. United on Saturday, a defeat ends their season.
Nashville are unbeaten at home in the league this season: 14 wins, two draws, 45 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Predicted lineups: Nashville vs NY Red Bulls
BJ Callaghan made five changes for Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with Philadelphia, with Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge only coming off the bench in the second half. I expect them back from the start, in the same XI that won in Montréal. The Red Bulls have bigger problems. Ronald Donkor and Dylan Nealis are both suspended for yellow-card accumulation, so Michael Bradley has to change his midfield and his back four. Emil Forsberg, who played the last half-hour in New England, is the natural option in midfield, and I expect Cameron Harper to come into the defence. Justin Che remains out.
Nashville Team News & Preview
The home record is remarkable: 44 points from 16 games at GEODIS Park, with only D.C. United and Philadelphia taking a point away. Nashville have scored four or more six times at home, but the defence has been just as important. They have the best goals-against record in the league, and only four home opponents have scored more than once.
Wednesday’s goalless draw came with a heavily rotated side. Mukhtar (17 goals) and Surridge (18 goals) were rested and should start, and with the Shield ceremony, a points record and Schwake’s clean-sheet record all on the line, I do not expect another weakened XI. Cristian Espinoza, with 12 assists, is the main supplier for the two forwards.
What works for or against Nashville
- Unbeaten at home in the league: 14 wins, two draws, 45-12 on goals.
- Mukhtar and Surridge were rested on Wednesday and should be fresh.
- A win equals the league's points record, and Schwake is chasing the clean-sheet record.
- The Shield is already won, so the result does not change Nashville's seeding.
New York Red Bulls Team News & Preview
The Red Bulls create plenty but finish badly. They have 59.6 expected goals this season and only 43 actual goals, and Wednesday’s 3-2 defeat in New England, where Matt Turner made eight saves, was a typical example. Julian Hall has 12 league goals, but away from home the team has scored only 19 times in 16 games and won five of them.
Losing Donkor matters at both ends. He is the club’s highest-rated player on FotMob and a key part of their central midfield, while Nealis captained the team on Wednesday. Bradley says his side will stay aggressive with and without the ball, which is what a must-win game demands, but against Nashville’s back line that approach also leaves space for Mukhtar and Surridge.
What works for or against the Red Bulls
- Only 19 goals in 16 away league games.
- Donkor and Nealis are suspended.
- They create chances: 1.86 expected goals per game, one of the highest figures in the East.
- Beat Inter Miami 2-0 last weekend and scored twice at New England on Wednesday.
Nashville vs NY Red Bulls Odds
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Nashville SC Form, Stats & Data
Twenty-three goals conceded in 32 games is the figure that matters for this bet. Nashville’s expected goals against is higher at 1.20 per game, so Schwake and the finishing of opponents have helped, but over a full season the gap is too consistent to call it luck alone. At home the record is even better, with half of their 16 games ending in a clean sheet.
New York RB Form, Stats & Data
The Red Bulls‘ expected goals figure is the main danger to my bet: 1.86 per game shows they get into good positions. The problem is converting them, with 16.6 fewer goals than their chances suggest. Without Donkor, their best player by rating, they are also likely to spend more time defending than usual.
Nashville vs NY Red Bulls: Prediction & Betting Tip
Everything around this game points towards a full-strength Nashville side: a trophy presentation, a points record, an unbeaten home season and a goalkeeper one clean sheet away from equalling Meola. Half of their home games have ended without a goal against them, and the Red Bulls have struggled to score away from home all season. Missing Donkor and Nealis makes their job harder.
The Red Bulls‘ chance creation is a genuine risk. They need to win, they will take risks, and 1.86 expected goals per game means they usually get chances. That is why I am keeping this to 3/10, but I like New York Red Bulls under 0.5 team goals at 2.96 with MyStake. I expect a 2-0 Nashville win.