Bottom-placed Preston face a Sheffield United side missing key men
Pre-match update (19:50 CET): The official team sheets were not yet available when I re-checked, so the lineups below are still predicted. Nothing has changed for the worse for this bet: Chris Wilder said Patrick Bamford’s shoulder problem will be a late decision, Kalvin Phillips did not train on Sunday after his knock at Wrexham, and Joe Rothwell still has to be assessed after his precautionary groin withdrawal. My bet stays Preston Double Chance (1X) at 1.79 with MyStake for 1/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication earlier today; prices may have moved since.
Preston are bottom of the Championship with five points and have not won in five league games under Graham Alexander. The 2-0 defeat at Stoke on Saturday was their fourth loss in five, and they have scored only ten league goals all season. Sheffield United are tenth and unbeaten in three after Friday’s 1-0 win over Wrexham, but Chris Wilder has to replace a suspended centre-back and two of Friday’s starters. On form this looks one-sided. The underlying numbers make it much closer.
“Confidence is low without a shadow of a doubt.” – Graham Alexander, quoted by BBC Sport
Predicted lineups: Preston vs Sheffield United
Preston are still without Harry Clarke and Liam Gibbs, Lewis Gibson is out, and Alistair McCann is a doubt. Thierry Small came on for Brad Potts at half-time at Stoke and is expected to start, with Alexander sticking with a back three. For Sheffield United, Liam Kitching misses out after his fifth booking. FotMob lists Tahith Chong and Romelle Donovan as injured after they came off against Wrexham, and Matt Doherty, Jamie Shackleton and Ryan Oné are also out. Top scorer Patrick Bamford is a doubt, Kalvin Phillips needs careful management after a knock, and Femi Seriki is not ready to start.
Preston North End Team News & Preview
There is no point hiding Preston’s results. One win, two draws and ten defeats, ten goals scored and 27 conceded, and just one home win. They average only 2.5 shots on target per game, which is the main reason they are bottom.
But the chances are there more often than the scoreline suggests. Preston have 16.0 expected goals, which is more than Sheffield United’s 15.8, and they have scored six fewer than that figure would suggest. Their expected goals against of 20.8 is poor, but it is not as bad as the 27 goals they have actually let in. Alexander described Deepdale as „the bedrock“ of the performances he wants, and with the season slipping away this is a game they have to attack.
What works for or against Preston
- 16.0 expected goals, but only ten league goals scored.
- Bottom of the table and winless in five under Alexander.
- Only 2.5 shots on target per game.
- Won both league meetings 3-2 last season.
Sheffield United Team News & Preview
Sheffield United have been solid rather than spectacular. They have scored in six league games running and have ten points from their last five, but their numbers are modest: 15.8 expected goals for and 18.2 against, and 3.8 shots on target per game. Away from home they have won two, drawn two and lost two.
The absences matter more than usual here. Kitching has been a key part of the improved defence, and Chong and Donovan both started on Friday. With Bamford doubtful, Jordan Ayew and Ben Brereton Díaz, who scored the winner against Wrexham, are expected to lead the line. Wilder said his side „don’t go into games sitting off teams“, which should give Preston chances on the counter.
What works for or against Sheffield United
- Unbeaten in three and ten points from the last five league games.
- One extra day of rest after playing on Friday.
- Kitching is suspended and Chong and Donovan are injured.
- Only 15.8 expected goals in 13 league games.
Preston vs Sheffield United Odds
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Preston vs. Sheffield Utd Stats Comparison
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Preston vs. Sheffield Utd Form Guide
Preston Form, Stats & Data
Preston are underperforming at both ends. They score well below their expected goals and concede well above their expected goals against, which tells me their table position is worse than their level of play.
Sheffield Utd Form, Stats & Data
Sheffield United’s results are slightly better than their numbers. Their expected goals difference is negative, and their two most important players this season, Bamford and Phillips, are both fitness concerns.
Preston vs Sheffield United: Prediction & Betting Tip
Sheffield United are clear favourites because of the table and the form guide, but the gap between these sides by expected goals is small. Preston create as much as Wilder’s team, and the visitors are missing a centre-back, two of Friday’s starters and possibly their top scorer. I think Preston are more likely to avoid defeat than the odds suggest.
The strongest argument against the bet is Preston themselves. They are bottom, confidence is low, and 2.5 shots on target per game is a very weak figure. That is why this is only a small bet. I am backing Preston Double Chance (1X) at 1.79 with MyStake for 1/10, and I can see this finishing 1-1.