Celestini’s injury-hit Burnley take their reset to Loftus Road
Pre-match update (19:50 CET): The team sheets are in and there are no new shocks. Jimmy Dunne and Richard Kone both start for QPR, with Dennis Cirkin back at left-back for Boy Kemper and Koki Saito in for Kwame Poku. Burnley are exactly as expected, Jamie Vardy leads the line and Josh Cullen and Aaron Ramsey are only on the bench. My bet stays the same: QPR to win at 2.00 with MyStake for 2/10. The odds quoted are from this morning; prices may have moved since.
Burnley sacked Nicky Hayen after the 4-1 defeat at Lincoln and appointed Fabio Celestini last week. His first game was a 0-0 at home to Portsmouth on Saturday, and the clean sheet was a step forward, but Burnley still have one league win all season and sit 22nd. Tonight is his first away game, on a short turnaround, with a squad he admits is stretched. QPR come off a 4-1 defeat at Southampton, but at Loftus Road they have been one of the strongest sides in the division.
“We have a lot of injuries at the moment; I think everyone knows this. Some players can play 90 minutes, some can play an hour, some less.” – Fabio Celestini, Burnley press conference
Predicted lineups: QPR vs Burnley
Julien Stephan has two new problems at the back. Alfie Lloyd injured his hamstring at Southampton and is not expected back before the end of the year, and Jake Clarke-Salter is unavailable. Nicolas Madsen, Rumarn Burrell and Tariq Lamptey are expected back after the international break. Burnley had Josh Cullen, Jaydon Banel and Aaron Ramsey back on Saturday, but Armando Broja is „still a bit away“, Dastan Satpayev is injured and Hannibal Mejbri is out until the new year. Jordan Beyer is a doubt. Celestini has also made it clear that some players will not last 90 minutes. The line-ups are now confirmed: Stephan recalls Dennis Cirkin and Koki Saito, with Boy Kemper and Kwame Poku dropping to the bench, while Celestini names the same eleven I expected, with Cullen and Ramsey among the substitutes.
QPR Team News & Preview
The Southampton defeat was ugly. Stephan called it „probably the worst 20 minutes collectively since the start of the season“, and admitted QPR struggled at set pieces for the first time this season. But the week before, they beat Swansea 5-0 at Loftus Road, and they also beat Derby 4-1 there. Their home record reads three wins, two draws and one defeat, with 13 goals scored and five conceded.
The underlying numbers back that up. QPR have produced 22.1 expected goals and conceded only 14.9, one of the best balances in the league, and they average 4.9 shots on target. Losing Lloyd and Clarke-Salter is a blow, but captain Jimmy Dunne has started every league game, and the attack around Richard Kone and Paul Smyth is unchanged.
What works for or against QPR
- Three wins, two draws and one defeat at home, with 13 goals scored.
- 22.1 expected goals and 14.9 expected goals against in 13 games.
- Lost 4-1 at Southampton on Saturday.
- Alfie Lloyd and Jake Clarke-Salter are both out.
Burnley Team News & Preview
Burnley were relegated from the Premier League last season, but they have been poor in the Championship: one win, six draws and six defeats. Away from home they have lost four of six and conceded 15 goals, including four at Lincoln in Hayen’s final game. They have 25 goals against overall, almost two per game.
Celestini’s first game showed more structure. Burnley kept a clean sheet against Portsmouth and had a Largie Ramazani goal ruled out, and Celestini said afterwards: „I don’t see a fragile team.“ But Burnley played on Saturday evening, have little time to train before tonight and still have a long list of injured players. They also play Cardiff later in the week.
What works for or against Burnley
- Kept a clean sheet in Celestini's first game.
- One league win all season and four defeats in six away games.
- 25 goals conceded in 13 league games.
- Short recovery after a Saturday evening game, with a long injury list.
QPR vs Burnley Odds
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QPR Form, Stats & Data
QPR’s expected goals figures are better than their ninth place suggests. They create more than they concede by a clear margin, and that has shown most at home, where they have scored more than twice per game.
Burnley Form, Stats & Data
Burnley concede more chances than they create, and their goals against are even worse than their expected goals against. One clean sheet under the new head coach does not change that on its own.
QPR vs Burnley: Prediction & Betting Tip
QPR have been strong at Loftus Road and create far more than they allow. Burnley have one win all season, have lost four of six away, and arrive with a stretched squad on a short turnaround. Even after the Southampton defeat, I make QPR the right side.
The strongest argument against the bet is Celestini’s arrival. New head coaches often get a short-term response, Burnley kept a clean sheet on Saturday, and they still have players such as Kyle Walker and Jamie Vardy. QPR are also missing two defenders and struggled at set pieces at the weekend. That is why I am keeping the stake down, but I am still backing QPR to win at 2.00 with MyStake for 2/10. I see it finishing 2-1.