Dionisi’s Watford need a response after another collapse
Pre-match update (19:50 CET): The official team sheets were not out when I checked, so the line-ups below are still predicted. Alessio Dionisi remains in charge at Watford, and striker Luca Kjerrumgaard is a doubt with the adductor problem that kept him out at Norwich. Lincoln’s coaching duo of Tom Shaw and Chris Cohen have talked about keeping the side fresh, and Freddie Draper could partner Mikkel Ladefoged up front. Nothing here changes my view, so the bet stays Lincoln City Draw No Bet at 1.97 with MyStake for 1/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication; prices may have moved since.
Watford led 2-0 at Norwich on Saturday through two Myron Boadu goals and still lost 3-2. It was their sixth defeat in seven league games, and Alessio Dionisi’s side are 21st with 11 points. Lincoln are five places and four points better off, but they come into this off a 3-1 home defeat by Birmingham. Away from Sincil Bank they have been tidy and hard to beat, and that is where my interest lies.
Predicted lineups: Watford vs Lincoln
Watford have no new injury worries after Norwich. Jeremy Ngakia is a doubt, Edoardo Bove and Kwadwo Baah are back in training but are unlikely to start, and Dionisi is expected to stick with the back three that started on Saturday. Luca Kjerrumgaard is also a doubt with an adductor problem, although Boadu and Bravo are expected to stay together up front anyway. Lincoln are without Tendayi Darikwa until mid-November, and Mason Melia is a doubt. Co-head coaches Tom Shaw and Chris Cohen are likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 built around Mikkel Ladefoged, though Freddie Draper is pushing for a start alongside him.
Watford Team News & Preview
Watford’s home form has kept them afloat: three wins, a draw and two defeats at Vicarage Road. Away from home they have taken one point from seven games. Overall, though, the trend is poor. Since beating Preston at home they have lost to Stoke, Bristol City, Burnley, Cardiff, Wolves and Norwich, with only a 2-0 win over Charlton in between.
The underlying numbers explain why. Watford have 13.8 expected goals, one of the lowest totals in the division, and have allowed 23.8, one of the highest. Their best-rated player is goalkeeper Federico Ravaglia, which says a lot about how often they are under pressure.
What works for or against Watford
- Three wins in six home league games.
- Six defeats in the last seven league games.
- 23.8 expected goals against in 13 games.
- Lost 3-2 at Norwich after leading 2-0 at half-time.
Lincoln City Team News & Preview
Lincoln’s season has been split in two. At home they have won once in seven and were beaten 6-0 by West Ham and 3-1 by Birmingham. Away from home they have won three, drawn one and lost two, with 1-0 wins at Bolton, Preston and Bristol City, and they conceded only seven goals on their travels.
They are also the better side on the underlying numbers here: 17.7 expected goals to Watford’s 13.8. Reeco Hackett and Ladefoged have been their best-rated players, and Ladefoged scored twice in the 4-1 win over Burnley last month.
What works for or against Lincoln
- Three wins in six away league games.
- Only seven goals conceded away from home.
- Beaten 3-1 at home by Birmingham on Saturday.
- Only six goals scored in six away games.
Watford vs Lincoln Odds
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Watford Form, Stats & Data
Watford’s expected goals difference is one of the worst in the league. They do not create much and give up plenty, so their results are not bad luck.
Lincoln Form, Stats & Data
Lincoln’s goals against are inflated by their home defeats, including the 6-0 against West Ham. Away from home they have been far more compact.
Watford vs Lincoln: Prediction & Betting Tip
Watford are in a bad run, with poor underlying numbers, and Lincoln have been one of the more reliable away sides in the bottom half. On expected goals Lincoln are the stronger team, so I am happy to side with the visitors and have the stake returned on a draw.
The strongest argument against the bet is Watford’s home record. They have won three of six at Vicarage Road, and Lincoln have scored only six away goals, so a single goal could decide it either way. That is why this is a small bet: I am backing Lincoln City Draw No Bet at 1.97 with MyStake for 1/10. I see it finishing 0-1.