Birmingham’s draw-heavy home record meets Millwall’s chance machine
Pre-match update (20:25 CET): The line-ups are in. Ryan Allsop replaces the injured James Beadle in goal, August Priske misses out and Bird leads the line for Birmingham. The biggest worry for this bet was Millwall sitting deep without Jenson Metcalfe, but Alex Neil has done the opposite: a back four, Mihailo Ivanović and Lyndon Dykes both start, and Dan Kelly is only on the bench. I am sticking with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.77 for 3/10. The odds quoted are from the time of publication; prices may have moved since.
Birmingham are unbeaten at St Andrew’s this season, but four of their six home games have ended level, three of them 2-2. Chris Davies‘ side won 3-1 at Lincoln on Saturday and sit sixth. Millwall arrive after a 4-1 win over Derby that was effectively over inside 17 minutes, and Alex Neil’s team have produced more big chances than any other side in action tonight. Both teams create, both concede, and Birmingham have had to change their goalkeeper.
“James took a knock and we’ll see how he is in the coming days.” – Chris Davies on James Beadle, quoted by Hayters
Predicted lineups: Birmingham vs Millwall
The line-ups are now confirmed. Ryan Allsop starts in goal for Birmingham, with James Beadle missing out after going off at half-time at Lincoln, and August Priske is not involved despite scoring twice on Saturday. Jay Stansfield plays behind Bird, with Marvin Ducksch on the bench. Millwall make two changes: Jordi Osei-Tutu comes in at right-back for Tristan Crama, and Mihailo Ivanović gets his first start of the season alongside Lyndon Dykes. Jenson Metcalfe is suspended, but instead of bringing in Dan Kelly as an extra midfielder, Alex Neil has gone with two strikers and kept Kelly on the bench. Tairyk Arconte is back among the substitutes.
Birmingham City Team News & Preview
Birmingham have one of the best defensive records in the division, 13 goals conceded in 13 games, but that has been built mostly on the road, where they have let in six in seven. At home it is a different story: 14 scored and seven conceded in six games, with 2-2 draws against Bristol City, Wolves and Middlesbrough, a 4-0 win over Preston and a 3-0 win over QPR. Only one of those six games, the 1-1 with Southampton, stayed under 2.5 goals.
August Priske leads their scoring with six, and Liam Millar has been their highest-rated player. They average 1.69 expected goals per game, one of the better figures in the league, so I expect them to score even without Priske.
What works for or against Birmingham
- 14 goals in six home league games.
- Five of six home games have had three goals or more.
- Beadle and Priske both miss out after knocks at Lincoln.
- Won 3-1 at Lincoln on Saturday.
Millwall Team News & Preview
Millwall’s underlying attacking numbers are excellent: 25 expected goals and 47 big chances in 13 games. Their results have not always followed, but Lyndon Dykes, Kyrell Lisbie and Camiel Neghli give them plenty of threat. Away from home their games have been open: they lost 5-1 at Southampton and 3-1 at Blackburn, won 2-0 at Bristol City and drew 2-2 at Middlesbrough.
Metcalfe’s suspension takes a key ball-winner out of midfield, and The Hard Tackle expected Neil to set up in a low block. He has not: Ivanović and Dykes both start, with Kelly on the bench. Millwall’s away games have averaged more than three goals, and their defence has conceded 12 times in six trips.
What works for or against Millwall
- 25 expected goals and 47 big chances in 13 league games.
- Beat Derby 4-1 on Saturday.
- Jenson Metcalfe is suspended.
- Four of six away games have had three goals or more.
Birmingham vs Millwall Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Birmingham vs. Millwall Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Birmingham vs. Millwall Form Guide
Birmingham Form, Stats & Data
Birmingham’s goals against are lower than their expected goals against, and the gap is mainly down to their away games. At home they have conceded more than once per game on average, and a change in goal would not help that.
Millwall Form, Stats & Data
Millwall’s expected goals of 1.92 per game is above their actual scoring rate, which tells me they are creating more than enough to score at St Andrew’s. Their goals against show they also leave space.
Birmingham vs Millwall: Prediction & Betting Tip
Birmingham’s home games have produced 21 goals in six matches, and Millwall create more big chances than almost anyone in the division. Add a change in goal for the hosts and a missing ball-winner for the visitors, and I expect goals at both ends.
The strongest argument against the bet was the risk of a cagey game, with Millwall sitting deeper without Metcalfe. Neil’s two-striker line-up makes that less likely, although Birmingham’s tight away record shows they can shut games down. I think the home numbers and Millwall’s chance creation outweigh that, so I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.77 with MyStake for 3/10. I see it finishing 2-2.