A new face on the ADO bench, the same problems on the pitch
ADO Den Haag sacked Robin Peter on Monday after a 1-0 defeat at PEC Zwolle left them 17th with six points from 11 games. Assistant Levi Schwiebbe takes charge on an interim basis while the club talks to potential successors, with former Sparta manager Maurice Steijn reportedly the leading candidate. Sparta arrive after a late 3-2 win at Groningen and with Milan Zonneveld scoring freely: nine goals in his last ten games in all competitions.
„With survival as the main objective, we therefore took this difficult decision.“ – ADO sporting director Gunn on Peter’s dismissal (via adodenhaag.nl, translated from Dutch)
Predicted lineups: ADO vs Sparta
Schwiebbe is unlikely to change much in the few days he has had, so ADO should line up in the same 4-3-3 that started at PEC. Luka Reischl remains out with a groin problem and Alejandro Pozo is a doubt. Sparta are expected to stick with their 5-4-1 around Zonneveld, though Jens Toornstra is a doubt and Mitchell van Bergen would come in if he misses out.
ADO Den Haag Team News & Preview
ADO’s season has been a slow collapse. One league win – a 2-1 against PSV – three straight defeats and a cup exit on penalties to amateur side Excelsior ’31. At PEC they had 66 per cent of the ball but only three shots on target, and they have now conceded the opening goal in eight consecutive matches.
The numbers explain why the club acted. ADO create only 1.05 expected goals per game and allow 1.99, and at home they have one win, one draw and three defeats. The interim effect is the unknown: players often respond to a change, and Schwiebbe knows the squad well as Peter’s assistant.
What works for or against ADO Den Haag
- Beat PSV 2-1 at home earlier this season.
- First game under interim coach Levi Schwiebbe.
- One league win and three straight defeats.
- Conceded first in eight consecutive games.
Sparta Rotterdam Team News & Preview
Rogier Meijer’s side are only 11th, but their underlying numbers are far better than ADO’s. Sparta create 2.00 expected goals per game, the most of the two sides by a distance, and Zonneveld has seven league goals. The win at Groningen came late, through substitute Kostic after a defensive error, and was a reward for a side that keeps creating chances even when results are mixed.
Their weakness is at the back. Sparta have conceded 26 goals and allow 1.95 xG per game, so they are rarely comfortable. Away from home they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring 11 and conceding 12.
What works for or against Sparta Rotterdam
- 2.00 expected goals per game.
- Zonneveld has seven league goals.
- 26 goals conceded and 1.95 xG against per game.
- Toornstra is a doubt.
ADO vs Sparta Odds
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Den Haag vs. Sparta Stats Comparison
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Den Haag vs. Sparta Form Guide
Den Haag Form, Stats & Data
ADO have the lowest FotMob team rating of the six Eredivisie sides I have looked at this weekend, and their numbers at both ends are poor. They keep the ball reasonably well but do very little with it. A new voice in the dressing room may lift the intensity, but it cannot fix a lack of quality in the final third in a week.
Sparta Form, Stats & Data
Sparta’s games are open, with chances at both ends, but their attacking output is that of a top-half side. They have scored 20 from 22 expected goals, so there is no sign of luck inflating the numbers, and Zonneveld gives them a reliable finisher.
ADO vs Sparta: Prediction & Betting Tip
On the football alone, Sparta are the clearly better side. They create almost twice as much as ADO, have the most dangerous striker on the pitch and face a team that has conceded first in eight successive games. I think the visitors win this more often than not.
The case against is the coaching change. A first game under an interim coach is unpredictable, and teams often respond with a big effort. Sparta’s own defence is far from solid, and ADO did beat PSV at home. Because of that uncertainty I am keeping the stake at 2/10 and covering the draw. Sparta Draw No Bet at 1.87 with Winz is my bet, and I expect a 1-2 away win.