Porto’s perfect league form meets a Napoli side running out of defenders
Pre-match update (20:10 CET): The line-ups are in. Porto start exactly the XI I expected, with Pietuszewski and Zaidu on the bench and William Gomes not in the squad. Napoli again have no natural full-back, with Politano and Antonio Vergara at wing-back, but Kevin De Bruyne starts behind Rasmus Højlund, so both of their fitness doubts have been passed fit. That adds real quality between the lines, so I am cutting my stake on FC Porto to win at 1.97 from 3/10 to 2/10. The tip itself stays. I could not recheck the MyStake price before kick-off, so the odds quoted are from 3 November and may have moved.
Porto have no points in the Champions League, but domestically they have been perfect: ten league games, ten wins, and only four goals conceded. Francesco Farioli’s side beat Estoril 4-0 on Saturday and have had three full days to prepare. Napoli arrive in a very different state. They lost 2-0 at Juventus on Sunday, Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Mathías Olivera both went off injured, and Massimiliano Allegri is now without all four of his natural full-backs. Kevin De Bruyne rolled his ankle in the same game but has been passed fit to start.
“We are not happy to have zero points in the Champions League, and it is something we will turn our attention to in a few days.” – Francesco Farioli (via DN, translated from Portuguese)
Predicted lineups: Porto vs Napoli
The line-ups are confirmed. Farioli has gone with the 4-3-3 and the XI I expected: Diogo Costa in goal, Bednarek and Kiwior in the middle of the back four, Rosario, Gabri Veiga and Froholdt in midfield, and Pepê, André Silva and Borja Sainz up front. William Gomes, who missed training on Tuesday with an ankle problem, is not in the squad, while Pietuszewski and Zaidu are among the substitutes along with Samu and Santiago Giménez. Napoli are without Di Lorenzo, Olivera, Spinazzola, Favasuli, Buongiorno, Badiashile, Lobotka, Neres and Alisson Santos. Allegri has switched to a back three of Beukema, Rafa Marín and Rrahmani, with Politano and Antonio Vergara at wing-back. The big news is that Kevin De Bruyne starts despite his ankle knock, playing behind Rasmus Højlund, who has shaken off the flu. Lorenzo Lucca and Noa Lang drop to the bench.
FC Porto Team News & Preview
Porto’s domestic numbers are outstanding. They have produced 22.8 expected goals and allowed only 8.0 in ten league games, and they average 6.6 shots on target. Borja Sainz leads their scoring with five, and Gabri Veiga has been their best-rated player. Farioli rotates his strikers on purpose, so whether André Silva or Samu starts matters less than it would elsewhere.
Europe has been a different story. Porto lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City, 3-2 at Real Betis and 1-0 at home to PSV, and they have scored only twice. But two of those defeats were by a single goal, and none of the three opponents arrived with a defence as stretched as Napoli’s will be.
What works for or against Porto
- Ten wins from ten league games, with 25 goals scored and four conceded.
- Three full days of rest after Saturday's 4-0 win over Estoril.
- No points and only two goals in three Champions League games.
- William Gomes misses out with an ankle problem.
Napoli Team News & Preview
Napoli are eighth in Serie A with four wins from ten, and Sunday’s defeat in Turin was a bad one. It was 0-0 at half-time, but Juventus had 18 shots to seven and five on target to one, and Napoli also had Marianucci sent off. They have conceded 13 league goals, and seven more in three Champions League games.
The injury list is the bigger issue. Without Di Lorenzo, Olivera, Spinazzola and Favasuli, Allegri has to play wingers or midfielders at full-back or wing-back against a Porto side that attacks wide through Pepê and Sainz. Napoli also played a day later than Porto and had to travel from Turin. Scott McTominay and Højlund give them goals, but this is a weakened side.
What works for or against Napoli
- Scott McTominay and Rasmus Højlund give them a goal threat.
- All four natural full-backs are out.
- Lost 2-0 at Juventus and were outshot 18-7.
- One day less rest than Porto, and De Bruyne starts only three days after rolling his ankle.
Porto vs Napoli Odds
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Porto vs. Napoli Form Guide
Porto Form, Stats & Data
Porto create more than two expected goals per league game and allow less than one. That gap is the main reason I trust them at home, even after a poor start in Europe.
Napoli Form, Stats & Data
Napoli’s numbers are solid rather than strong, and they came from a full squad. Their top scorer and best-rated player is De Bruyne, who starts despite rolling his ankle on Sunday.
Porto vs Napoli: Prediction & Betting Tip
Porto have the better form, more rest, home advantage and a far healthier squad. Napoli have lost their whole group of full-backs and were outplayed at Juventus three days earlier. De Bruyne starting makes them more dangerous than I expected, but Politano and Vergara at wing-back still leave space for Pepê and Sainz. I still make Porto the favourites.
The strongest argument against the bet is Porto’s European record. They have no points, have lost twice at the Dragão and have scored only twice in three games. If they start nervously, Napoli have the quality to punish them. I still think the injuries swing this, and I am backing FC Porto to win at 1.97 with MyStake for 2/10, down from 3/10 now that De Bruyne starts. I see it finishing 2-0.