Kuyt faces his old club as Fenerbahçe look for a reaction
Pre-match update (17:50 CET): The teams are in, and Iraola has rotated again. Liverpool make five changes from the Arsenal defeat: Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo are on the bench, Trey Nyoni and Rio Ngumoha start, and Joe Gomez and Kostas Tsimikas come in at full-back. Fenerbahçe start Romelu Lukaku up front, with Vedat Muriqi among the substitutes, while Mason Greenwood and Kojo Oppong are both fit to start. Fenerbahçe have also agreed terms with Emre Belözoğlu as their new manager, but Kuyt is in the dugout tonight. None of this weakens the case for the hosts scoring, so my bet stays Fenerbahçe over 0.5 team goals at 1.42 with MyStake for 2/10. I could not re-check the MyStake price before kick-off, so the odds quoted are from 3 November and may have moved since.
Fenerbahçe have had a bad week. İsmail Kartal resigned after the derby defeat at Galatasaray, and interim manager Dirk Kuyt started with a 2-1 home defeat to Göztepe on Saturday. Now the former Liverpool forward faces his old club in his first European game in charge. Liverpool are top-three in the league phase with three wins, but those games have been wild: 2-1 against Atlético, 6-3 at LASK and 4-3 against Villarreal. They come to Istanbul without Ryan Gravenberch and after a 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal.
“As Fenerbahçe we are not in an easy situation, but this is a chance for us to show ourselves.” – Dirk Kuyt (via Sporx, translated from Turkish)
Predicted lineups: Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool
The starting line-ups are now confirmed. Mason Greenwood is back from flu and starts, and Kojo Oppong has shaken off Saturday’s knock to start at centre-back. Kuyt goes with Romelu Lukaku up front, with Vedat Muriqi on the bench, and brings in İsmail Yüksek and İrfan Can Kahveci. Nathan Aké and Marco Asensio are out. Liverpool are without Gravenberch, Frimpong, Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni, and Iraola has rotated heavily: Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo, Miloš Kerkez and Ronald Araújo all start on the bench. Neither team’s formation has been officially stated, so the shapes below are my reading of the XIs.
Fenerbahçe Team News & Preview
Fenerbahçe are fragile, and Kuyt admitted it after Göztepe. They led through Matteo Guendouzi, had 72% of the ball in the first half, and still lost after an individual error. They have not won a Champions League game since 2008, and the 6-0 defeat at Aston Villa still hangs over them.
But at home they keep scoring. They have 17 league goals in five home games, with Vedat Muriqi on seven for the season (he starts on the bench tonight, with Romelu Lukaku leading the line), and they found the net against both Roma and Slavia at Kadıköy. Their league numbers, 20.5 expected goals and 6.7 shots on target per game, are those of a side that creates plenty, and Greenwood’s return adds another goal threat.
What works for or against Fenerbahçe
- 17 goals in five home league games.
- Scored in both Champions League home games.
- Lost their first game under Kuyt, 2-1 at home to Göztepe.
- Mason Greenwood is back after flu.
Liverpool Team News & Preview
Andoni Iraola’s side have nine points from nine in Europe, but they have conceded in every game and let in seven goals across the three. Villarreal scored three at Anfield and LASK scored three in Linz. In the Premier League they are fifth after the defeat by Arsenal, where they had more of the ball but did not manage a shot on target.
This is their fourth game in 11 days, and Iraola made seven changes between the Carabao Cup tie and Arsenal. Gravenberch’s absence takes a key midfield runner out of the side, and the travelling squad includes several teenagers. Iraola has used them: Trey Nyoni and Rio Ngumoha start, while Isak, Wirtz and Gakpo are only on the bench.
What works for or against Liverpool
- Three wins from three in the Champions League.
- Seven goals conceded in three Champions League games.
- Ryan Gravenberch stayed at home with a heel problem.
- Fourth game in 11 days after a 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool Odds
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Fenerbahce Form, Stats & Data
Fenerbahçe create more than two expected goals per league game, which is why I am happy to back them to score at home even against a side of Liverpool’s quality.
Liverpool Form, Stats & Data
Liverpool’s league numbers are more modest than their European results. They concede around one goal per game domestically, and more than two per game in the Champions League.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not backing Fenerbahçe to get a result, and I expect Liverpool to win. My bet is on the hosts scoring. They have scored in every Champions League home game, they average more than three goals a game at home in the league, and Liverpool have conceded in all three European games and are now without Gravenberch’s legs in midfield. With five changes and a teenage-heavy Liverpool XI, the confirmed teams only strengthen that view.
The strongest argument against the bet is Fenerbahçe’s fragility. They failed to score at Villa, they have lost their last two league games, and if Liverpool score early the game could drift away from them. Van Dijk’s defence also kept Arsenal to one goal on Sunday. I still think the home side will get at least one, so I am backing Fenerbahçe over 0.5 team goals at 1.42 with MyStake for 2/10. I see Liverpool winning 3-1.