Leipzig’s home machine against a City side leaking goals
Pre-match update (20:15 CET): The team sheets are in. Leipzig line up in a 4-3-3 with Baumgartner, Gruda, Rômulo and Nusa all starting, so the attacking core I expected is there, even without Nkunku in the XI. Maresca makes four changes and leaves Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol on the bench, with Guéhi and Khusanov in the middle and Nunes and O’Reilly at full-back. Nothing here weakens the case for a Leipzig goal, so my bet stays RB Leipzig over 0.5 team goals at 1.34 for 2/10. The odds quoted are from publication on 3 November; prices may have moved since.
On the road, RB Leipzig have been beaten heavily this autumn: 4-1 at Como, 6-1 at Bayern and 4-1 at Real Madrid. At the Red Bull Arena it is a different team. Martín Demichelis‘ side have won all four home league games 18-0 and beat PSV 1-0 in Europe. Manchester City arrive in a poor run. Enzo Maresca’s team lost 4-2 at home to PSG in this competition, 2-1 at Aston Villa and 1-0 at home to Brighton on Saturday, and they have conceded 12 goals in their last six games.
“I know I have to achieve goals with RB Leipzig. That is why I am here.” – Martín Demichelis after the win at Schalke, quoted by the Manchester Evening News (translated)
Predicted lineups: Leipzig vs Man City
The line-ups are now confirmed. Demichelis goes with a 4-3-3: Ezechiel Banzuzi, Amadou El Aynaoui and Christoph Baumgartner in midfield, with Brajan Gruda, Rômulo and Antonio Nusa in attack. Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Seiwald are not in the XI, Maxime Estève, a doubt with a knock, does not start either, and Assan Ouédraogo and Marc Guiu are injured. City are without only Antoine Semenyo. Maresca makes four changes from the Brighton defeat: Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden come in, while Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol, Jérémy Doku and Bouaddi drop to the bench. Erling Haaland, who has scored 12 goals in eight games against Leipzig, captains the side.
RB Leipzig Team News & Preview
Leipzig’s home numbers are remarkable. Eighteen goals in four Bundesliga home games, plus the 1-0 against PSV, and no goals conceded in any of them. Across all league games they average 6.9 shots on target and 2.5 expected goals.
Saturday’s win at Schalke showed the same pattern: Antonio Nusa scored a penalty, Rômulo added a second, another goal was ruled out by VAR, and Schalke goalkeeper Karius faced ten shots on target. Nusa has been Leipzig’s best-rated player this season, and Nkunku has four league goals.
What works for or against Leipzig
- Five home wins in a row without conceding, with 19 goals scored.
- 6.9 shots on target per league game.
- Beaten 4-1 at Como, 6-1 at Bayern and 4-1 at Real Madrid.
- Maxime Estève is a doubt.
Manchester City Team News & Preview
City are second in the Premier League, three points behind Arsenal, but their defending has slipped. They conceded four at home to PSG, two at Aston Villa and two to Brighton in the Carabao Cup before losing 1-0 to the same opponents in the league on Saturday. Maresca said after the Brighton game that his side „did enough to deserve something more“, but the goals against keep coming.
Going forward they remain dangerous. Haaland has nine league goals and four in the Champions League, and Foden scored a hat-trick against AEK. I fully expect City to score here, which is why my bet is on Leipzig scoring rather than on the result.
What works for or against Man City
- Haaland has 12 goals in eight career games against Leipzig.
- 12 goals conceded in the last six games.
- Lost 1-0 at home to Brighton on Saturday.
- Only Antoine Semenyo is injured.
Leipzig vs Man City Odds
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Leipzig vs. Man City Form Guide
Leipzig Form, Stats & Data
Leipzig create more than 2.5 expected goals per league game. Their goals against come almost entirely from away games.
Man City Form, Stats & Data
City still create plenty, but they are conceding more than a side of their level usually does, and that has got worse over the last three weeks.
Leipzig vs Man City: Prediction & Betting Tip
Leipzig have scored at least once in every home game this season, average 4.5 goals a game at home in the league, and face a City side that has conceded in each of its last six games. I expect an open game and I expect Leipzig to score.
The strongest argument against the bet is City’s quality and Leipzig’s record against top sides: they scored only once in each of their heavy away defeats at Como, Bayern and Real Madrid. Maresca has also reshuffled his defence, starting Guéhi and Khusanov with Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol on the bench, but there is still plenty of quality in that back four. That is why the stake is moderate, but I am backing RB Leipzig over 0.5 team goals at 1.34 with MyStake for 2/10. I see City winning 3-1.