Como’s stretched squad travel to a rested Lens
Pre-match update (20:15 CET): The line-ups are in and they back up the case for Lens. Thauvin and Hazard both start, with Cahuzac switching to a 3-5-2, while Kean, Diao, Jesús Rodríguez, Chalobah and Addai are all missing from Como’s matchday squad. Fàbregas has also left Baturina and Ricci on the bench, bringing in Caqueret and Milla. My bet stays as it was: Lens Draw No Bet at 2.22 with MyStake, 1/10. The odds quoted are from 3 November; prices may have moved since.
Como are fourth in Serie A and on five straight wins, but they come to Bollaert with a thin squad. Cesc Fàbregas said after Sunday’s 1-0 win over Venezia that only 16 players would be available, and that preparation for Lens would be „practically only video sessions“. Moise Kean, Assane Diao, Jesús Rodríguez and Trevoh Chalobah are all out. Lens have had an extra two days to recover since Friday’s 1-0 defeat at Lille. That defeat was a poor one, but at home in Ligue 1 Yannick Cahuzac’s side have won three of four.
“On Wednesday there will be 16 of us, and we are ready for another battle.” – Cesc Fàbregas (via Prima Como, translated from Italian)
Predicted lineups: Lens vs Como
The line-ups are now confirmed. Cahuzac has gone with a 3-5-2 rather than the expected 3-4-2-1: Thauvin drops into a midfield three with Mickaël Cuisance and Amadou Haidara, Ruben Aguilar and Michał Skóraś play as wing-backs, and Thorgan Hazard partners Franjo Ivanović up front. Jean-Clair Todibo, who refused to shake Cahuzac’s hand at Lille, is on the bench, as are Florian Sotoca and Abdulhamid. Odsonne Édouard, Ismaëlo Ganiou, Abdallah Sima and Maik Nawrocki are out, and Jhoanner Chávez is not in the squad. For Como, Kean, Diao, Jesús Rodríguez, Chalobah and Jayden Addai are all missing. Fàbregas has made two changes from Sunday: Maxence Caqueret comes in for Martin Baturina behind Douvikas, and Milla replaces Ricci alongside Perrone, with both Baturina and Ricci on the bench.
Lens Team News & Preview
Lens were outclassed at Lille on Friday, and Cahuzac did not hide from it. But their home league form is solid, with three wins from four, and in Ligue 1 they average 5.3 shots on target and 1.7 expected goals per game. Thauvin has been their best-rated player and their top scorer with four league goals.
Their Champions League campaign has been mixed: a 3-2 win at Slavia, then a 2-0 home defeat by Sporting and a 3-0 loss at Club Brugge.
What works for or against Lens
- Three wins from four home league games.
- Two days more rest than Como.
- Outplayed in a 1-0 defeat at Lille on Friday.
- Lost their only Champions League home game, 2-0 to Sporting.
Como Team News & Preview
Como have been one of the stories of the season. They are fourth in Serie A with only eight goals conceded in ten games, and they beat RB Leipzig and Manchester United 4-1 at home in Europe. Nico Paz is their best-rated player, and Anastasios Douvikas has five league goals.
The concern is the squad. Kean and Diao are two of their main attacking options, Chalobah is a key defender, and Fàbregas did not rotate on Sunday because he could not. Como also lost 3-2 at Feyenoord in their only away game in the Champions League, and their win over Venezia was laboured.
What works for or against Como
- Five straight wins in all competitions.
- Only eight goals conceded in ten Serie A games.
- Kean, Diao, Jesús Rodríguez and Chalobah are out, with only 16 players available.
- Played on Sunday and prepared with video sessions only.
Lens vs Como Odds
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Lens vs. Como Calcio Form Guide
Lens Form, Stats & Data
Lens create a reasonable amount, but they also allow too many chances. At home, with more energy than their opponents, I think they can push Como hard.
Como Calcio Form, Stats & Data
Como are the better side over the season, and their defensive record is excellent. The question is how much they have left with a squad this thin.
Lens vs Como: Prediction & Betting Tip
Como are the better team on paper. But they are travelling with 16 fit players, key attackers missing and almost no time on the training pitch, while Lens have had four full days to recover and are strong at home in the league. In these circumstances I think the gap between the two sides is much smaller than the table suggests.
The strongest argument against the bet is Lens‘ own form. They were outclassed at Lille, there was unrest around Todibo, and they lost their only European home game 2-0 to Sporting. Como have also won five in a row. That is why this is only a small bet. I am backing Lens Draw No Bet at 2.22 with MyStake for 1/10, and I see it finishing 1-1 or 2-1.