Viking’s goal-filled home games meet a tired Sabah
Pre-match update (20:25 CET): The line-ups are in, and both top scorers start on the bench. Peter Christiansen, who has been nursing hamstring stiffness, is among the Viking substitutes, with Simen Kvia-Egeskog and Tobias Moi coming into midfield and Sebastian Bell also dropping out. Sabah have changed shape to a 4-2-3-1, with Veljko Simić fit to lead the line and Joy-Lance Mickels and Kaheem Parris on the bench. Viking’s home record and Sabah’s leaky away form in Europe still point to goals, so I am keeping Over 2.5 Goals at 1.37, but with both main scorers starting as substitutes I am cutting the stake from 2/10 to 1/10. Viking to win at 1.42 (1/10) stays. The odds quoted are from 3 November; prices may have moved since.
Viking are level on points with Bodø/Glimt at the top of the Eliteserien, and at the Lyse Arena their games are rarely quiet. They have won all 12 home league games, scoring 44 and conceding 13, and they drew 3-3 with Bayern here in the Champions League. Sabah, in their first league phase, beat Slavia Prague at home but lost 4-0 at Manchester United. They arrive after a long trip from Baku, a 3-2 defeat at Turan Tovuz on Friday, and a kick-off at midnight Azerbaijan time on an artificial surface.
“I take responsibility for the defeat.” – Valdas Dambrauskas after the 3-2 loss at Turan Tovuz, quoted by qol.az (translated)
Predicted lineups: Viking vs Sabah
The line-ups are now confirmed. Viking’s top scorer Peter Christiansen, who cut a training session short on Tuesday with hamstring stiffness, is on the bench. Simen Kvia-Egeskog and Tobias Moi come into midfield, with Sebastian Bell also among the substitutes, and Henrik Bjørdal joins Erik Botheim and Zlatko Tripić in the front three. Anders Bærtelsen, Veton Berisha, Sondre Bjørshol, Nicholas D’Agostino and Martin Ove Roseth are out. Joint head coach Morten Jensen was sent off in the 3-2 defeat at Bodø on Friday, but that ban is domestic only. Sabah switch to a 4-2-3-1: Veljko Simić has shaken off his injury doubt to start up front, with Orphé Mbina, Abdulakh Khaibulaev and Christian Nwachukwu behind him. Joy-Lance Mickels, the man of the match against Slavia, and Kaheem Parris start on the bench.
Viking Team News & Preview
Viking score a lot and concede a lot. They have 64 league goals in 25 games, and their games average more than three and a half goals. At home it is even more extreme: 44 scored and 13 conceded in 12 games. Zlatko Tripić has been their best-rated player and Christiansen has 15 league goals.
In Europe the pattern has held. They lost 3-1 at Stuttgart and 3-1 at Aston Villa and drew 3-3 with Bayern, so their three games have produced 14 goals. They have conceded nine, but they have also scored in each game, and they have not lost a home game since March.
What works for or against Viking
- Twelve home league wins out of twelve, with 44 goals scored.
- Drew 3-3 with Bayern in their only Champions League home game.
- Nine goals conceded in three Champions League games.
- Top scorer Peter Christiansen starts on the bench.
Sabah FK Team News & Preview
Sabah have been tight in Azerbaijan, with only four league goals conceded in nine games, but away from home it has been a different story lately. They lost 4-0 at Old Trafford, and on Friday they were 3-0 down at Turan Tovuz after 37 minutes before pulling two back. Dambrauskas admitted his side gave the opponent „too many gaps“ in the first half.
This is their third game in ten days, and they had a long flight to Norway before a game on artificial turf. They do carry a threat of their own: they beat Slavia 2-0 and scored against Dortmund, and Mickels is joint top scorer in the Azerbaijani league.
What works for or against Sabah
- Beat Slavia Prague 2-0 and scored against Dortmund at home.
- Lost 4-0 at Manchester United in their only Champions League away game.
- Conceded three in 37 minutes at Turan Tovuz on Friday.
- Third game in ten days, a long trip and an artificial pitch.
Viking vs Sabah Odds
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Viking vs. Sabah Form Guide
Viking Form, Stats & Data
Viking create well over two expected goals per league game and score even more than that. They also concede more than one per game, which suits a goals bet.
Sabah Form, Stats & Data
Sabah’s domestic defence is excellent, but in the Champions League they have already conceded six goals in three games, four of them in their only away match.
Viking vs Sabah: Prediction & Betting Tip
Viking’s home games produce goals almost every week, and their three Champions League games have all had at least four. Sabah conceded four at Old Trafford and three at Turan Tovuz on Friday, they are on a heavy schedule, and they will be playing on artificial turf late at night by their own clock. I expect Viking to score at least twice and Sabah to have chances on the break.
The strongest argument against the bet is Sabah’s domestic defence, and it has grown stronger with the line-ups: Christiansen and Mickels, the two sides‘ top scorers, both start on the bench. If Sabah sit deep, this could be a 2-0. That is why I have cut the stake to 1/10. I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.37 with MyStake, and I see Viking winning 3-1.